Jump to content

Hermanator

Legacy Members
  • Posts

    7873
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by Hermanator

  1. He's a piece of shit. We'd all be better off
  2. These dumbasses are so bad at math they don't understand that telling their ghouls to only vote in person in 2020, and telling them the opposite this year, means they're going to have far less in person on election Day than in 2020. There's no one single extra voter for Trump this year than 4 years ago. A portion of his 2020 voters died from the pandemic or just old age. He's lost a lot of women, lost a lot of Puerto Ricans in a week, and is even losing some among men. There's no way enough uneducated black and Mexican-American men are going to make up the difference, especially in PA, WI, and MI. He's toast
  3. Of course she's going to be reasonably close to correct. She's the only one of these people actually controlling for bias in her sampling and aggregation. All the other shit that's been thrown out there is nonsense. Don't worry about much today, the only way this doesn't go to Harris is if the republicans figured out a way to corrupt the actual voting numbers in these swing states. But I think they would have to do it in at least 3 or 4. They're evil enough to try but not smart enough to get it done without being caught. Remember, any republican with brains bailed on this shit show after the insurrection. That's why there's no one left in that campaign with any intelligence or discipline, and trump spent the last 2 weeks calling Puerto Ricans garbage, dressing up in garbage man cosplay, and acting like his microphone was Putin's shrimpy dick.
  4. That's inventing demographics that don't exist. That's not incompetent, it's flat out nefarious. It's been quite the shocking revelation that something as big as the USA presidential election with all the billions of dollars tied up in the whole thing only has a single lady in bumbfuck Iowa that conducts representative sample election polls correctly.
  5. I'm not a statistician but I did have to take a few higher level probability and statistics courses for my undergrad 20 years ago. From what I remember the key to all of it is the quality of input data. That's a very difficult thing to obtain, but the majority of the work and attention to detail should be put into obtain as close to a representative sample as possible without poisoning with bias. If you put garbage data in you're going to get garbage data out. I don't follow election polling at all so don't know how they source their data, but it seems Selzer is the closest to quality data input by 20+ years of experience sourcing data from her smallish state. Then the only adjustments needed are adjusting the sample demographics to mirror the registered voter demographics. If these other pollsters are taking results they don't feel are quality enough and adjusting them to mirror prior results 4 years ago that's purely invalid, garbage data. That's omitting everything that's happened in the last 4 years. Which in this case is more change in this arena than I believe has ever happened in a 4 year period in the history of the country other than the civil war. What we need is about 10 Selzers, one for each of the swing states, that put all their effort and a scientific attention to detail into doing it the right way in their individual states. Right now all we have is one great sample and a shit ton of biased, garbage data it appears.
  6. So just to be clear, a ton of these pollsters are just maga fakes or foreign fakes attempting to fuck with the election. Then the ones that aren't fakes are all people believing they have to adjust and rig their numbers far to the red to get the results closer to the median so they don't look completely stupid no matter who wins? And the one poll that doesn't ske the numbers by the lady in Iowa who just says fuck all that nonsense has Harris wiping the floor with trump in lilly white Iowa? Is that where we stand?
  7. I see Rodney Terry has the boys in fine form. Great work fellas
  8. Jesus f'n christ. Mobley is fucking us hard this first half
  9. Ok so Ohio State can shoot open 3s. Maybe try not sagging so much and rotating so lazily. Get some fucking energy on defense.
  10. I'll only recognize 2 guys on the floor tonight but let's fucking go, mercenaries!
  11. Do you go to McDonalds and ask for their best cut of beef? You'll drink your Jim Beam and like it.
  12. Ol' Sonny Dykes out at TCU is putting up a development rate around .1000
  13. It doesn't. He's probably gained some minority men he didn't have last time, but he's also lost a lot of men he did have last time. These polls are almost all just people attributing whatever they believe will be true to any data set they get. It's the epitome of poisoning your data. Instead of just releasing what they are getting they start bastardizing the results to make it closely aligned to what they saw in 2020. Completely ignoring an insurrection, credit for the most unpopular supreme court fuckery of our lifetimes, being convicted of a multitude of felonies, indicted federally, and stealing classified info that still hasn't been returned (and probably sold to our enemies) have all occured by trump since the last vote of 2020 was cast. I imagine the data a lot of them are getting is showing Harris destroys him and they're uncomfortable with that because of 2016. Just go sit at the bar, order some chips and salsa and a Presidente Margarita, and celebrate. Nobody says you have to eat their food.
  14. It wouldn't be a civil war in the classic sense. America is far too large, diverse, and technically advanced for that. Think more along the lines of Ireland's "Troubles". Guerilla warfare, terrorist attacks, and attempted political assassination. Last time gutted idiot groups like proud boys and oath keepers, but much smaller groups like that could be lurking in the shadows keeping their heads down for now because they saw what happened last time. Then you have the lone wolf types looking to create mayhem that are harder to track if they aren't idiots on social media. I'm hopeful this isn't the case, but I'm also realistic. All of trump's rhetoric recently is violent and setting this up. Killing Liz Cheney, killing the media reporters, calling it rigged already, etc.
  15. Agreed. I'm actually more worried about the day the states certify individually, around mid December, as days where individual statehouses could get overrun. Going to need a well coordinated law enforcement effort to show enough force to keep the idiots from going full Darwin, or at least to send them to meet Darwin if they do. Also, Biden and his DOJ officials need to have a sit down with Mike Johnson and make very clear the consequences of dragging an insurrection this time will be far worse than last time. Show you're prepared for their bullshit. If they're scared to go that route the only other route is flooding the courts but, even with all those trump judges still floating around, I think that gets shut down. Especially if the rubes are restless and on the verge of lashing out. For all of individually in Texas, I recommend carrying everywhere you legally can just in case. My .40 hasn't left my side since Friday morning.
  16. They're pushing for it again. We all knew this is going to happen. Democrats need to be prepared for this, and we as Americans need to be prepared for this to get ugly. Biden's DOJ needs to have a plan to arrest these people for insurrection the moment they try to interfere.
  17. He's doing fine. No worse than any of these other yahoos. The only thing Brady needed to accomplish is not sounding like the arrogant douchebag he looks like. He's done that well.
  18. Feel bad for Dak's injury but I'm enjoying Bijan issuing this ass whoppin' on these soft chumps. Keep showing that piece of shit Jones on camera.
  19. And, you know, an insurrection. Thinking the splits would be the same is pure negligence.
  20. "Sir, we're in Wisconsin. It's a state as have to win. These are mostly white, socially conservative working class people who believe in family values. Please stay on topic today" "Sure thing, I'll just go up there and pretend the mic stand is a big cock and suck it"
  21. I'm starting to come around to realizing this dude may be the only sane person in this whole field.
  22. That whole thing is just a grifting ladder. Trump grifting the American idiots. LaCivita and Wiles grifting trump for allegedly over $22 million by LaCivita alone. All the minions under them running their own little grifts on trump's campaign money. Insane hangers on like Loomer and Lewandowski trying everything to get in on the grift "You gotta know that a guy who helps you steal, even if you take care of him real well, he's gonna steal a little extra for himself."
×
×
  • Create New...