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Hornlover

Burnt Ends
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Posts posted by Hornlover

  1. 4 hours ago, ztejas said:

    J'Covan was not slow. He wasn't an NBA level athlete but he had plenty of shake - esp with the ball in his hands - at the college level. 

    Like a poor man's Luka Doncic. He shot the ball well from outside, wiggled his way to the basket for layups, found open guys for assists, threw no-look passes that were completely unnecessary, tried behind the back or through the legs passes that clanked off of Alexis Wangmene's hands over and over again, had nights where he didn't care at all about playing defense. 

    Here's some highlights of him in Israel playing. He seems to still be able to ball, even if it's not at an NBA level. 

     

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  2. 8 minutes ago, Catdaddyhorn said:

    I'm firmly of the belief that Shaka's #1 issue here has been rebounding and all the intangible ingredients that are inherent to teams that rebound at a good to an elite level. Rebounding on both ends can mask a number of other issues. A good offensive rebounding team can all of a sudden increases their offensive efficiency when they tick up a few notches on their offensive rebounding numbers. And the tenacity and grit that it takes to be a great rebounding team unveils itself in other areas of the game.  

    Yes, rebounding makes a huge difference. That correlates so highly with buckets close to the basket, which if Shaka has paid any attention to the analytics at all he'd understand those are the most important shots.

    Mid-range 2 pt. jump shots are the least valuable shots in basketball. Here are shot charts from our games against ISU, KU, and OK St. 

    Against OSU, look how many terrible 2 pt shots we took. (OSU only took one 2pt. shot outside the paint.)

    We did so much better against KU. I have no idea what KU was doing shooting so many bad 2's, but likely our frustrating defense and an inability to make 3's put them off their game.

    Against ISU it was a mixed bag. Even though Coleman has leaned on that pull up jumper from the elbow a few times to great effect, we need to wean ourselves off of the bad 2 pt jump shots.

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  3. 12 minutes ago, Catdaddyhorn said:

    According to kenpom here are our team 3pt% numbers over Shaka's tenure. Basketball reference may differ a bit. 

    20-21 34% #151

    19-20 33.4% #169

    18-19 34.8% #150

    17-18 32.0% #316

    16-17 29.2% #345

    15-16 34.1% #202

    Beginning in the 19-20 the NCAA moved back the 3pt line to the international line so these numbers aren't necessarily apples to apples. 

     

     

     

    The overall team number is probably deflated by too many ill-advised 3 pointers jacked up early in the shot clock by guys like Osetkowski, Lammert, Davis, Roach, Febres, Yancy , etc.

  4. 8 minutes ago, Sleepygrad said:

    The most important question we should be asking is do any of these potential hires have hot wives and/or daughters (18+) for us to gawk at?

    That needs to be weighed heavily.

     

    6 minutes ago, Machinator said:

    Cross off Quinn, then.

    Dan-Quinn-Wife.jpg

    She definitely is weighed heavily

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  5. 18 minutes ago, Catdaddyhorn said:

    https://www.barkingcarnival.com/2017/12/20/16803880/so-you-want-shooters-a-look-at-texas-path-to-getting-perimeter-help

    From the research of

    @Bitterwhiteguy

    Data and Stuff

    The data set is from the three-point percentage leaders for each year; they had to average at least 2.5 makes per game and play in 75% of the team’s games in that particular year. In other words, a bench guy who went 4-6 over a couple of games couldn’t get in because he was hot and never played again. A couple of things are pretty noticeable in the data. First off, the NBA analytics revolution is starting to really insert itself into the D-I game. In the first six years the number of players who qualify for this list hovers somewhere around 70, but the last two years it’s been closer to 100 with the 2015-2016 season nearly hitting 120 players. That’s a massive rise in the number of players who are able to qualify for this list with their quantity of makes, and this season the number is 161. That will inevitably fall as players cool off, get injured, or otherwise fail to hit the two minimums, but we’re still in line for a significantly higher number of players than even four or five years ago.

    Second, and the most statistically stable numbers on this spreadsheet to me — the guy who is not a statistician — is how this list breaks down by class. There are 618 entries in this spreadsheet (counting duplicates as some players show up multiple years) and just over half of them are seniors. Every season of available data has seniors making up the largest individual category in this list, never less than 45% of the qualifying players in a single year. Second-most on the list? Juniors in aggregate (just under 28%), as well as every individual year except one. Third-most on this list is sophomores (about 17%) and bringing up the rear are freshmen with not quite 5%. It doesn’t take a genius to notice the pattern, and it’s not a particularly shocking find when you think about it. Buddy Hield is a favored example people want to bring up about guys who come back and get better at shooting, and he plays into this pattern quite nicely. He’s not on here as a freshman, and his next three seasons he’s ranked 46th (90 makes on 223 attempts), 63rd (93/259), and 6th (147/322, good lord), respectively. As is true with most college sports, the best thing about a freshman is that they become a sophomore, a sophomore becomes a junior, and a junior becomes a senior. It seems fair to say that shooters in general aren’t recruited as much as cultivated. There are exceptions to this idea — hello, Trae Young — but those exceptions are generally not likely to stay in college for three to four years — goodbye, Trae Young — either.

     

    Speaking of development as it stands now Courtney Ramey has a better career 3pt% than Buddy Hield. 

     

     

    That's a great breakdown. Comparing 3 pt shooting from Hield and Ramey is an interesting exercise.

    Hield definitely had a higher volume of 3pt shots, and his senior season was otherworldly. Ramey's Junior season so far (small sample size, and regression to the mean caveats notiwthstanding) looks similar to Hield's soph/junior seasons, but that volume difference is big.

    I've also omitted the 2 pt stats in these images, but Junior Ramey makes 2 pt shots at a much lower rate than So/Jr. Hield, and also generates FTs at a lower rate too.

     

     

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  6. 1 hour ago, NoName said:

    Herman was a known asshole - not shocking folks wanted nothing to do with being around him.

    He has to be the least "loved" Texas Coach in the last 40 years, right?

    IIRC, players loved Akers. No clue about McWilliams. I thought players loved Mackovic but not for sure. Obv players loved Mack and Charlie.

    At least one or two T&F members loved Bev Kearney. A lot.

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  7. 58 minutes ago, alphahorn said:

    I hope Burton is wrong about Arnett. Just don't think he's been tested enough. San Diego st. is still highly ranked in team D after his departure.  I don't see him as a step up from Ash.  At this point if it's not Freeman, then I'd rather stay with Ash

    Maybe because Brady Hoke is still there? While obviously not a good HC for Michigan, he seems to thrive at SDSU.

  8. 12 hours ago, dcar00 said:

    Its not really unfortunate, its pretty much all on him, that he hasn't had consistent shooters or recruited a "knock down" 3 point shooter.

    Tevin Mack, Eric Davis, Roach, Andrew Jones, Febres, Ramey, D. Williams. Any one of them could have been that guy. Not a one of them ever developed that outside shot. I'm not sure if that's on Shaka or not. Maybe it is, or maybe it's bad luck.

  9. 4 minutes ago, Keef said:

    This makes me wonder if the 25th hasn't already been invoked.  Not saying it is likely, but there are some signs.

    I think since Pence was presiding over the Senate proceedings in the capitol, he technically has the right to call in the National Guard, since the Capitol Grounds is not controlled by the executive branch, and the president does not have the authority. (Just spitballing, I don't know for sure).

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  10. 46 minutes ago, WinningIsHard said:

    Lighten up francis. We know who Muschamp is as a coach and a recruiter so he doesn't have to prove he's a man anymore. During the Urban stuff many people were quoted saying it would be difficult for Meyer to pull the guys he likes because it's such a fucking beating working for him. Are those guys pussies? Are they garbage now? I don't think so honestly, they are on the brink of a champiohship. Working for Saban has to be a long rigorous mind fucking from start to finish. Sark on the other hand seems to be a much calmer guy and wants to focus on offense. To each their own though bro.  

    Is it a coincidence that both Meyer and Saban have the perceived personality trait of expecting their assistants to work their asses off and demanding a single-minded devotion to winning at all times? How many coaches are successful at just letting all the assistant coaches party and have fun all the time, while winning Championships? 

  11. 32 minutes ago, PHLaggie said:

    haha that is certainly a nice thing to hang your hat on, isn't it? :) it'll never get old for you. That's quite ok. Truth is truth.

    I'm not sulking over the matter though, you see. So you guys shouldn't sulk over a guy you had committed for less than a month, two years ago, either. It's not a good look. Especially for the mighty Longhorns, is the gist of my comment here. Didn't mean to seem like I was salting an open wound.

    I didn't see any sulking. It appeared to be an instance of "where are they now?" . 

    I'm dumbfounded trying to figure out what possessed an aggy to wander over to a Longhorn message board, go to the recruiting forum, and pipe up about a recruit that has nothing to do with them? I remembered, belatedly, that I should never try to make sense of an aggy. It's pointless.

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  12. 11 minutes ago, PHLaggie said:

    Since this popped up, I got curious and hopped on to 247 and kept looking at the Texas class of 2020, and couldn't find this guy. Didn't realize he was committed to you guys for less than a month...back in spring of 2019 (from Feb 16, 2019, to Mar 8, 2019). that's almost 2 years ago.

     

     

    Since you popped up, I got curious and hopped on Google and kept looking at NCAA Championship lists, and couldn't find your team. Didn't realize you guys last won a  conference championship ... back in 1998 (when Texas beat you). that's almost 32 years ago.

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  13. 1 hour ago, tbone_ said:

    Don’t really follow basketball that much. What are Shaka’s shortcomings - as in what’s the consensus on why his teams don’t perform better?

    One of the defining traits of college basketball's great coaches, is that they all have a system that they run. The best teams feature a mix of experienced players that have bought into (and can execute) that system, supplemented with elite recruits that can take a team over the top.

    Krzyzewski, Izzo, Bennett, Boeheim, Wright, Self, Huggins, Few, Roy Williams.... For any of them, you can point to a coaching philosophy that they apply to their teams that leads to success. They continually stack their teams with the 5 or 6 guys that will run the system and will consistently win games. When they add one two or three elite basketball players into that mix, then they're able to reach the final four. 

    I don't think Shaka has that yet. He had a system at VCU - HAVOC - that worked well in a mid-major program. It worked because you could get a deep squad of athletic, scrappy players with chips on their shoulders, who were willing to stay in the system 4 or 5 years. Those guys bought in, and were willing to hustle their asses off and use brutal pressure defense to lead to fast break turnover buckets. They didn't need to learn a complex offense.

    Shaka doesn't have those types of players at Texas (Huggins gets 'em at WVU). So, similar to Rick Barnes, he has a team that plays sound man-to-man defense (which is easier to teach than a complex zone like Boeheim runs) and relies on a point guard to generate all the offense. Solid guard play with good players can lead you to a bunch of wins, but isn't a recipe for long term success deep into the tourney when the rest of the team is just guys standing around waiting for something to happen and shaky outside shooters. Shaka has also been super unfortunate to not have any consistent outside shooting threat since he's been here. Adding a knock-down three point shooter to any of his teams over the last five years likely results in a couple tourney wins (or making the tourney in years we didn't) as it opens up the middle of the court for his point guard to generate so many more easy buckets. 

    We don't have an offensive philosophy like you see at Villanova or Gonzaga or Kansas. We don't generate easy buckets with backdoor cuts. We don't successfully run the pick and roll nonstop at the opposing team's weakest player. Coleman running the pick and roll with guys like Hayes/Sims/Kai and someone like Ramey/Febres waiting in the corner to knock down a three, like you see NBA teams run, would be very hard to stop. 

    Also - we've tended to have a bunch of boneheads on the roster over the last few years that were unable to even get the fundamentals right at times. 

    This year's team is good (but not great), because we have an outstanding defense and a senior point guard that is able to generate most of the offense on his own and is mixing his excellent skills to drive to the bucket to get his own shot with a superior ability to find surrounding open players with great efficiency. We're going to lose on the nights we run into teams that can pack the lane to keep Coleman out, or that step into passing lanes when he tries outlets to guys standing at the 3-point line, or our outside shots aren't falling.

    BTW - Calipari - not sure about him. His philosophy is to recruit 10 elite basketball players and expect them to win. This philosophy works too, but is mostly untenable unless you can drop a few hundred thousand dollars into recruits pockets every year with impunity (see also "Howard, Juwan" or "Hardaway, Penny").

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