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Everything posted by gyroprotagonist
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yeah don't know too much about it. only the seller pays the fee, so it's really of no benefit to you. if you want the horse via open sea, offer to pay the 2.5%. That's a whopping $26 using ETH at $3500 as an example. Jumping through hoops to save $26 seems iffy to me. If you were buying a Z2 Nakamoto for $20K, then yeah that would save the seller $500. It's a good horse and at .3ETH that is a GREAT deal for that profile and G-race odds + Genesis. I hope it's legit, but offer to pay the fee and see what they say. if the deal gets hung up for $26, then it's a scam. or maybe offer to meet at a well lit Target parking lot to make the exchange.
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yeah, i would like think you can breed a curve profile with another curve profile and get a somewhat expected outcome (if you did it 100 times a pattern would emerge), but you can't do that really. Mares can birf 2 per month. I think top players probably got to beta the breeding and run some sims. remember that horse that someone linked where it had the worst curve. almost totally J-shaped. https://knowyourhorses.com/horses/7042 You can kinda see how that curve was formed. This is only the bottom of the chart lol. Anyway, this poor bastard has some good original blood from https://knowyourhorses.com/horses/6682 a good Z10 Buterin Gen i wish more of the horses had longer race histories, but if you squint you can sorta see a pattern emerge. But, if you had an idea about how to shape curves over generations of horses, you could turn all this 'trash' that is being sold right now into something. It's kinda why i might start looking to snap up cheap genesis fillys just to have more breeding stock to play around with. But agree, when breeding starts, market is going to flooded with horses. I think that will be the time to snag some Legendary Nakamotos to add some fancy horse to the stables.
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that horse just moved up to class 1 and it did win the first race, but maybe they are waiting for breeding to open up and did not want to have a blemish on their record? But yeah, they could be making 1ETH per day racing probably. Maybe ZED put the halt on that horse for some reason. - I am still unclear on if you can charge whatever you want for the stud service or if it is some set amount based on bloodline etc... There is always going to be some insider shit going on between the top players and the devs. yeah, you need to shift that curve, lol. would be a beast. but keep racing in V if you can. I have seen that having the best odds in a race can also mean you will finish 11th or 12th and that should be viewed as good unless you are already strong in Class I. This horse can sometimes work it's way down to class V https://knowyourhorses.com/horses/15694 fucking LOL But see how it finished 12th at his best distance in class V? It had the best odds, but was sorta 'rewarded' with a 12th place finish.
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fuck it. who cares what works. I think Walmart just said that employees and customers that are vaxxed don't need masks. which just means, no masks are required. I think that policy is fair. Other retailers will probably move to that strategy. just post it on the door and update your employee policy. If a store is still 'recommending' masks, I'll take it out of my pocket and put it on for now. Specs was that way and it was still ~80% wearing masks in Dallas last week. If the employees are not wearing them, then they should not be required.
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couple of observations - File under no shit, but racing only the cheapest races has really improved my winning % and 11th place finishes (still can't get any 12th). Running even the $4-5 races was causing lots of 3rd place and middle finishes. https://knowyourhorses.com/horses/21001 64 races and no real curve yet. I think if i can be patient and stick to the cheap races, i might start seeing a better pattern. - prices on unraced and <5 raced genesis seem to be coming down. may try to grab some female Buterins Z7/Z8 if they get to $600 range. Breeding - has anyone seen anything online about real strategy? I have been trying to see how different finish curves propagate or what curves might make a solid U-shape, but had not found much online from the older players who have had the chance to do it. - Take Steph Curry. here are his parents and grandparents and their curves. Hopefully this shows up. So it was not like Steph had perfect U-shaped parents or even grandparents. pretty much the opposite of U-shaped. Had a great-grandmother that had a good win/place/show profile. His Dad has a crap profile. Steph has 6 siblings again, hopefully this shows up. Same pops, different moms. mom is on upper row and sibs are on the bottom. only one really has a pretty good U or closer to V shaped curve. You can see the 5th pair - the mom had a V shaped curve, but combined with dad's crappy curve, the result is inverse U. Same for the 3rd pair. So, breeding is going to be random as hell.
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interesting analysis. the lower end Buterins were able to sell for big multipliers.
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it can happen when multiple try for the same gate. also you can only be in 3 races at a time. the $2 races go really fast. I have never managed to get in a free race
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https://knowyourhorses.com/horses/18319 7 races, Five 12th place, two 11th place finishes. I mean, WTF how can a horse be that bad, but what if you could breed it with a good horse that never finished in last place and kept rising the next class with negative ROI. I saw a horse like that in Class 1. it just never even sniffed 11th or 12th place and was raking in Class IV, but kept rising up and now is just stuck. Everyone wants the ready made winner and there are lots of those to be found, but breeding has to be huge because that's where Zed is going to make a shit-ton of money as they rake every breeding fee. if it got around that you had a good 'cooler' horse, you could probably breed the shit out of it to help people dial in the right side of the U-shaped distribution.
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also, for those who are noobs like me, the seller pays 2.5% of sale price to opensea, in case you were worried about them being able to keep the servers running.
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another one by this seller is listed as stolen on the kyh site: https://opensea.io/accounts/0xcc32ebc423c43e12f912afb9a3f5b6857029cbcd not sure what the policy is here. crypto seems the epitome of 'finders/keeper' but maybe ZED could ban you from racing those horses. The other one looks really good, though https://knowyourhorses.com/horses/19156
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was looking at this horse https://knowyourhorses.com/horses/17987 but there is a flag on it that says it was stolen, lol. yeah, I am now thinking G-race odds are a decent indicator of future potential, but it's all about that U-shaped distribution. I wonder how much running 12th place comes naturally and how much the owner needs to pick 'bad' races. probably more just naturally. that horse sounds like a deal. 7 races is noise basically. what class it is racing now? I have been going to back and looking at the charts from 'good' horses and seeing what the dist looked like at certain points. just really started, but the number of 12th place finishes is AS important as 1st place. - look at this monster: https://knowyourhorses.com/horses/15296 Steph Curry. Dat chart! - you might think this horses races in Class 1, but nope i was in a race with him in Class III. here is what it looked like at 19 races so this horse is an anomaly where a blind person could see it's badassery from early on.
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my last 3 are not showing odds on the kyh site. not sure. it's a pain in the ass, but there is a results channel in the discord that should show the odds for each race.
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nice! run good. horse looks great. i am just going to keep running the oz and lbs horse to see if the distribution starts to trend more U or not. I am not seeing many 12 place finishes lately and am now in the low 50s for class. lol at wanting 12th place finishes. getting too many 3rds and middle finishes.
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any interest in this horse? if I can get for around ~$1600 might be good. https://knowyourhorses.com/horses/19556 - bred Legendary Buterin Z13 filly; nothing too special. 10ish G-race odds it has shown a knack for staying in Class V where it does pretty well. a horse that can stay in it's lane is the key getting any ROI out of these things. listed for .55 ETH ($2200), but may can get for .4 ish worst case we could breed with my decent horse as it's a filly. anyway, I will probably make a bid today. want to search out some more comps on a bred buterin. If i win it, i'll take anyone that wants a share.
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@Nice Guy Eddie the owner of sweet dragon just lowered the price to 0.3 ETH 5 mins ago. kyh shows it being class III now.
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looks good. really close to hitting Class III, though. that would be my only concern. Class Base Rating Griffin Un-raced Class 5 0 – 20 Class 4 21 – 40 Class 3 41 – 60 Class 2 61 – 80 Class 1 81 + I think one of the keys to breeding is going to be making 'designer' horses that will stay in Class IV but be strong Genotype Base Rating Z1 to Z4 57 Z5 to Z9 37 Z10 + 17 So you can see that a Z10+ will start off in class V but likely move up to class IV fast. Then goal would be to have a long stay in class IV. Finishing Position Point Awarded Finishing Position Point Awarded 1st + 4 -------- 7th 0 2nd + 3 -------- 8th 0 3rd + 2 --------- 9th – 1 4th + 1 ---------- 10th – 2 5th 0 ------------ 11th – 3 6th 0 ------------- 12th – 4 So i just found this chart that shows how each horse moves based on result. This is why that U-shape profile is super important (unless in class 1 lol) you have to hit 9th or worse to decrease your class rank.
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woof. 45+ G-race odds. that's criminal to do to somebody. maybe there is an algorithm to make their first offspring a monster. but that's $4K down the toilet in the near term.
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go for it! there are some deals to be had. barely missed on one last night. sub 6 odds Buterin for .45ETH, but missed it by like 15 mins. The sale was being slow so i put an offer in and said accepted, but gave it to the person who bid earlier. Saw another Finney that wend overnight that i might have looked at.
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seems like the races are getting tougher, but I am only seeing class III races. less donkeys. had 4 straight 3rds then a 2nd in my last 5 but can't get in the winner's circle. Still need to race some more different distances to start seeing more data. sorta agree. i don't know how much breeding rights are. Depending on how close they are to drop prices. ETH is down, so decent time to buy i guess.
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This is right at Drop pricing (Z5 were going for $3800) With ETH dropping a little its at $3950 right now https://opensea.io/assets/matic/0xa5f1ea7df861952863df2e8d1312f7305dabf215/23981 unraced Z5 Finney filly Genesis I would be down for pitching in on something like this. I am also scouting for an unraced Buterin Genesis, but those are still 4-5x drop prices right now. Saw a 11 odds G-race for $800, but depending on when the next drop is better deal might be had.
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Knee issue. Mcl, acl, or am I a whiner?
gyroprotagonist replied to markstanco's topic in Can You Help Me With This?
you have 5 weeks and are set on not getting any surgery. if it's not better in 2-3 weeks no harm in getting MRI and maybe a cortisone shot prior to the trip. -
there's a finite number of races, right? the max on the slider in opensea sorter is 2030. It will be interesting to see what breeding rights even cost. can you set your own price for stud fees? but you could probably sell an unraced foal from that horse for at least 1 ETH. I think i saw mares will be able to birf 2 foals per month.
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https://knowyourhorses.com/horses/23385 beast of a horse at Buterin. just listed for 3 ETH. 7 races total and won all 3 at 1000m. 4.9 odds at G-race. - just graduated to class III from class IV so they are trying to sell before any class III data is known. - sold for .24 ETH 4 days ago. check out this one. 1000+ races; 2.25 ETH profit, beautiful U-shaped finish profile https://knowyourhorses.com/horses/16896 - bred from 2 parents with 13+ odd in G-race - in a race with this on later https://zed.run/race/CppzIH1p
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also, if you search on the regular opensea.io (not the matic.opensea.io) you can dial in stuff even better with the races. you can set a range of # of races and range for win %. At least all the sorting option are on the left side of the screen for me. and obligatory "about tree-fiddy" for the current value.
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