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Posts posted by gmr548
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Ashley definitely blew everyone in her hometown
Fify
This is one where I'd almost believe the "hacked" excuse because it was so overt and such an onslaught. However, it's a good rule to never attribute to malice (hacking in this case) what can be explained by stupidity. Because it's usually the latter.
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MiLlIoNs Of IlLeGaL vOtEs
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56 minutes ago, SwanderedTalent said:
it won't be LSU minus 8, I can tell you that much
This. The same model predicts the Clemson -20 vs aggy. Now, Clemson might well beat aggy by twice that in Death Valley, but the line isn't opening anywhere near 20. 14 tops, probably 7-10 range. Same goes here. We may lose to LSU by 7-10 points, They bring back a lot more than we do. But Vegas isn't throwing Texas +8 out there to get things started. I'd think it opens somewhere between Texas -2 and +3.
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3 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:
Can’t believe we’re already pulling out the maps
Goddamn offseason.
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2 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:
Hillary will endorse Donald Trump
/as a troll
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5 hours ago, JimmyJames said:
Excellent post and spot on. To me the closest states for 2020 are going to be Florida, Iowa, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Arizona, and North Carolina. Trump can win all of those and if he wins five but loses New Hampshire, then we have a tie and the house decides it. In other words, trump inspired chaos.
If the dems lose Michigan and Pennsylvania again, which I don’t think will happen but who really knows, we’re fucked.
An EC tie is obviously a minuscule probability with so many moving parts, but I agree it is at least in the realm of plausible. It would mean the Ds took MI and PA back, and either flipped the Maine 2nd District or the Omaha House district in Nebraska. That'd be under-performing for the Ds, but that is kind of their calling card. I almost hope it happens just to see it. Almost. It'd still be a Democratic President thanks to the House. Is one of these two really that crazy?
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8 minutes ago, TexArcher said:
Beto needs to run for president. Even if he doesn't win the nomination, he will add millennial interest to the primaries that could carry over to the general. And he'll help shape the entire dialogue.
And he's not beating Cornyn if he couldn't beat the second most punchable face in the Republican Party.
I agree challenging Cornyn would be a bad move. Yes, two more years of demographic shift would help, and most of the R base turned out in 2018. Meaning every additional vote with increased turnout in 2020 is more likely to be D because it is likely to come from groups with more voters that passed in the midterms - latinos, youths, etc. He also isn;t starting at such a massive disadvantage in terms of name recognition, finances, infrastructure, etc.
Still, Cornyn is a much more well-liked and entrenched R than Cruz was. The lifelong R closet Beto supporters in the suburbs will stick with Cornyn. His popularity is probably closer to Abbott than Cruz. The margin might even end up similar, but I don't see where he closes the gap.
I don't think Beto can win a D Presidential primary but who knows. All signs point to him running. Personally, I'd love for him to buy time as an advocate/activist for Texas for the next four years and run it back vs Cruz in 2024.
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1 hour ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:
From Planet Stupid
He scurred.
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8 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:
Elizabeth Warren would be a fucking awesome president. The shift from Trump to Warren in terms of experience, integrity, and intelligence would be so insane this country might die of the bends.
She has been really impressive. Her record has always been solid but I like the way she is focusing her campaign around strong progressive policy proposals. That is probably a loser in America, sadly, but that is a different conversation. I really wanted to vote for someone younger because I'm tired of the goddamn boomers, but at this point I'd be surprised if I voted for someone else in the Democratic primary, even knowing it's over a year from now. She is the smartest person in the field and one of the few serious about the kinds of fundamental economic changes we need for this country not to go full third world.
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1 hour ago, Patrick Bateman said:
Ohio's probably not coming back.... they're in a racist, red neck death roll as is Florida. If you get them, great, the rout is on but they're no longer keys. Michigan and Wisconsin are needed but Pennsylvania seems like the biggest swing. If you flip North Carolina and Arizona along with Penn and don't lose Wisconsin, then you don't need to flip any states in the Midwest although it's a nail biter.
1 hour ago, Aqua Buddha said:Ohio is whiter and less educated than almost any other large state, especially compared to the other large Midwestern states so the comparison to Florida is valid. Dems can win without Ohio, especially with other states in play.
Feel like I have beat the drum on this before, but these are absolutely correct. The past two elections show Ohio is only a slight bit more competitive than Texas at this point. And those two states are trending different directions. It absolutely would not shock me to see a closer race in TX than in OH in 2020. It can be won in an election that is over before polls close on the west coast, but it shouldn't be counted on.
FL is sort of the same way, but the rules regarding felons there and the fact that the educated and minority population is at least growing don't make it as lost in the long term. That state will at least remain competitive as the snow birds die off, though it is an R lean.
Getting PA back is damn near a given. Rs have to chase PA because the path to victory is so narrow but it isn't a true swing state in the same sense that OH isn't a true swing state. The Democratic electorate got caught napping there in 16. The stars aligned there for Rs the same way they now need to for Ds to win OH. The growing engine of that state is the Philly area, with the Pittsburgh area in a secondary role. We know how those two cities vote, and now you have the Philadelphia suburbs voting for a D Senator/Governor at a 60-40 clip. Rs have no chance in that scenario. They're outvoted 2-1 by half the state and still have to deal with Pittsburgh. Look at 2018 - that state is still comfortably blue if Philly shows up to vote. I don't think that is gonna be an issue in 2020.
WI has shown to be a true tossup. I think that is one of the most likely states to be a tipping point. MI leans blue - similar demographic patterns as OH, but not as dramatic. Also a similar dynamic to PA with Detroit area still being the singular major population center and voting strongly D, even the suburbs in 2018. Ds also flipped Grand Rapids in 2018 despite losing ground in the rural portions of the state in recent years. Ds still cleaned up there in 18 when they invested in it. Fact is if the Ds win in metro Detroit, Grand Rapids, and Lansing, there isn't exactly a big pool of votes throughout the rest of the state and that is the pool shrinking the quickest as well. A good D candidate can win MI with room to spare, a bad one can absolutely shock the world and lose it. See Clinton, Hillary twice.
Rounding out the midwest, Iowa is fucking weird. To me it appeared they were going the way of OH but it was very competitive in 2018. Ds flip two typically R house districts, almost pick off Steve King, and win the house popular vote, but lose a very winnable Governor's election. Statewide down-ballot races split. Who knows man.
Voter suppression in NC makes me wary of a flip. Demographically that shouldn't be a red state anymore and for all of the noise the Rs make about voter fraud, the best examples of compromised elections consistently come from the NC GOP. AZ will certainly be close. I could see Trump getting beat there with a good D candidate. If not, probably 2024. That's a when, not if.
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8 hours ago, elfenix said:
the biggest lie in this is that being against a 3000 mile boondoggle of a useless wall means you're against increased security. what's actually true is that if you're for this useless piece of shit you're a moron and a coddled, whiny pussy to boot.
fify
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Party of law and order, personal responsibility, etc.
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8 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:
Given his track record of lying, this (and the several other past tweets with similar messages) is essentially a confession.
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1 hour ago, billfromlaketravis said:
I refuse to watch it because 6Figs, but Hamm interviewed Lindberg. Let's say he's less than enthused about Aggy.
So it's true, he is a smart kid.
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Really like where this OL class is heading.
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1 hour ago, 4th&Five said:
It's all a part of the BOMC
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If the majority of the American public realized that we get shittier internet service for higher prices than the rest of the first world... Well, nevermind, because that's common knowledge with healthcare and it doesn't matter to 40 percent of the country. We get what we deserve.
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10 minutes ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:
Stupid, stupider, stupidest.
What's the problem?That was vague on my end, I found the implication that it was just the absolute dumbest portion of his base that he was attempting to scam funny because, 1.) He is scamming them all, and 2.) There isn't a lot of intellectual variation among Trumpkins.
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in light of Trump being asked about Coulter today, and claiming he doesn’t really know her.
Lol "stupidest"
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Ted Cruz has figured out an alternative solution. This an idea that a pothead would dream up.
I used to think Ted Cruz wasn't stupid. Conniving and power-hungry in spite in being one of the biggest bitches the world has ever seen, yes. But not stupid.
I was wrong. Ted Cruz is a fucking moron.
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This is the part that should have every American worried. And if you're not worried by this, my recommendation is to look at the history of democracies, because they always end -- fail to be democracies -- at a point when some minority feels that compromise is impossible and extreme measures must be taken.
If you care about America remaining a democratic republic, you are rooting for Pelosi and Congress right now.
Unfortunately, 35-40 percent only care about MAGA and the GOP leadership moves closer to open disdain for democracy every day soooo
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I buy 243. Remember, fat is lighter than muscle, of which he has... Not much. It takes a lot of body fat to get up to that kind of number.No way he's an ounce less than 260.
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Going to college as a woman is for two things: Getting a degree that will make you money or finding a man that will make you money. Given the whole linguistics thing, I suggest that you push her towards the latter.
Also, she’ll be back in Texas in a couple years after a few polar vortexes.
I'm going to put this as nicely as possible...
This really makes you come off as a miserable cunt and a very small, insecure man.
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He's discussed earlier in the thread, but he's also the same man who went blind from getting into a physical altercation at thirty-fucking-two years old.I was curious so I googled. Seems everyone is tight lipped about it. "Altercation" is all anyone seems to know.
Given that he's an anti-gay crusading Republican, the "altercation" probably stems from him offering blow jobs in a truck stop bathroom.
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Texas Recruiting Notes 2020
in 🤫$9.95🤫
Posted
Mangino anus talk not going away.
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