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Laxtonto

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Laxtonto

  1. This is weird to say the least. Let's try and game plan why to turn on their AIS for any other reason than a deal with the US. 1. They didn't do it willingly, ie, someone hacked the Iranian system and turned them all on. I don't think this is the case because they don't spoof locations as much as just turn them off. 2. This is a response to the latest set of UN sanctions reapplied to Iran. No AIS provides stronger legal basis for other countries to inspect or seize an uninsured Iranian vessel. 3. This could be a China ask as a good faith offer to the US... Not sure how this helps either side with the timing 4. Could be Iran daring others to stop them from dealing with China and forcing China to step in None of these make a lot of sense, but then again, Iran all of a sudden making a deal with the US to remove sanctions on oil exports would require a ton of moving parts that would have already leaked. Going to put it in the weird but need more information pile for now and see what is going on in the morning.
  2. Anyone got this?
  3. Funny enough, the next interesting thing to watch is the meeting between Xie and Trump. Trump may view China as the real "adversary", but it is impossible to isolate China with the conflict on going. The Ukrainian delegation meeting in DC is nice window dressing to signal potential weapons deals and better strategic relationships, but the real "dagger" to end this is China agreeing to stop buying oil from Russia. China needs the trade war to end with the US and the rest of the world to have the US's blessing to not have to choose between the US and Chinese markets. The Chinese economy is in trouble with deflation concerns, unemployment, housing bubbles, trade tariffs and the lot and they desperately need an outlet for goods as well as other countries be willing to be able to play the middle man with them and the US again. With the ME chaos for the most part under control, expect OPEC to be willing to increase output if the oil is earmarked for China. That keeps OPEC in the green, China getting a way out of a potential recession, and the US, the end of the war on their terms that they are after. Something similar will probably be attempted with India, but that one is harder to guess on because there is much bigger issues beyond simple trade/tariffs with India, and so it is much more difficult to develop what is really on the table to be negotiated around. That will probably be the US offer. My guess is that this is a coin flip on whether Xie agrees to do something along these lines, and when he initially drags his feet, expect to see some saber-rattling by Saudi and OPEC+ to show China that they are willing to follow through in response to the US efforts to help deal with Iran and the Israeli/Hamas war. The hardest part of solving the Ukraine/Russia war is that China has had little reason to stop indirectly supporting this war despite its official stance of neutrality and repeated (if largely symbolic) peace proposals. Even with heavy sanctions on Russia, there are easy ways to buy their oil and keep their economy afloat. Keeping the war going is currently in China's best interest. All it does is help destabilize the US and Europe while slowly bleeding Russia dry. There was no way to leverage China away from Russia due to their immense need for oil to sustain their resource-intensive economy. They can either get it from Russia for cheap or get it elsewhere. Up until now, there was no reason for the OPEC members to do anything but complain that China is buying cheap oil from Russia, knowing that China still has to buy the rest from them. Now the ME has a reason to be involved as it can look to expand production and stabilize revenues while reducing volatility, especially with Russia nearing OPEC+ quotas and prompting compensation demands. The political climate has changed to the point that it is worthwhile for the Arab states to look to further expand ties to the west and this is one of the easiest ways to do so.
  4. I am torn on this one. With all the movement in the coaching ranks already, where would you put OU in the hierarchy as HC landing spots? Would you rather go to UF or PSU or OU? It is not like you have a Sark or Lanning, or Kiffin hanging out in the coaching rehabilitation clinic as a known top level candidate. Would OU fire BV to hire a retred like Jimbo?
  5. completely fake... Availability report does not go out till Wed
  6. Cignetti is currently making 300k less than Franklin was making. So, unless you are looking at bumping Cignetti to 10 or 12, Indiana is matching that. What makes this whole damn coaching carousel so damn interesting is that there is not a ton of "good" options for high-end jobs waiting in the wings. What is the "list" of high end coaches that teams would use at this point for a high profile college job? There is just not a ton of talent that doesn't have a ton of warts at this point. Cignatti, Elko, Jimbo, Summral, Drink, Mullen, hell even Kingsburry are going to get kicked around as potential names if a big opening comes up right now. The number and quality of names available is just not very stellar right now.
  7. The problem for Crimea is that Russia is struggling to make radars and ammo for what little air defenses that they have left and Ukraine keeps reminding them that if they try to move more there, unfortunately things go boom in other parts of Russia that they actually give a shit about. Its going to be a long cold winter in Russia and I would not be shocked to see everyone that isn't directly tied to the military to head east over the Kerch bridge to hopefully hide somewhere that might have fuel and heat this winter.
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