Jump to content

bolverk

New Members
  • Posts

    16617
  • Joined

  • Days Won

    12

Posts posted by bolverk

  1. Rudy shoulda listened.

     

    A Message to You, Rudy

    Stop your messing around (ah-ah-ah)
    Better think of your future (ah-ah-ah)
    Time you straighten right out (ah-ah-ah)
    Creating problems in town (ah-ah-ah)

    Rudy
    A message to you, Rudy
    A message to you

    Stop your fooling around (ah-ah-ah)
    Time you straighten right out (ah-ah-ah)
    Better think of your future (ah-ah-ah)
    Else you'll wind up in jail (ah-ah-ah)

    Rudy
    A message to you, Rudy
    A message to you

    Stop your messing around (ah-ah-ah)
    Better think of your future…

    • Hook 'Em 5
    • Haha 2
  2. 6 minutes ago, Calihorn said:

    I'm in that last graph, there's no universe I ever go back to the center.

    Yeah, I don't see it happening either.

    The '91ers (Young Millennials) know they're fucked by the system and are pissed. Now, imagine the '01ers (Gen Z but not graphed) who are 19 years old now. How do they see this world going and the lens they through which they view Trump and the GOP? Just ask former GOP Gen X dad, @Brisketexan, what his kids think and I'm sure he'll be happy to share his treatise on the subject.

    I can tell you that my 20yo daughter once told my parents to their faces that they were racists a few years ago if that's any indication.

  3. 7 minutes ago, Bruh Man said:

    Millennials grew up during 9/11, graduated during a financial crisis/housing crash, outsourcing and automation in overdrive. Many are single, lonely and broke. I see them at the dog park every day. It's not surprising some are falling for the Republicans con job.

    Those who graduated during the Great Recession would be closer to the 1991 (young Millennials) cohort who are now about 30 and are the most liberal of the bunch. It's the '81ers (old Millennials) who are approaching their 40s now. They probably got kicked in the teeth by the Great Recession when starting their families. Those are the ones who may be swinging in Iowa toward Maga.

  4. This discussion of age and voting patterns reminds me of an analysis by the NYTimes a few years ago showing that there's a "stickiness" to partisan tendencies overtime that were originally acquired around the period in which one first begins to vote or become politically active in early adulthood. It's an interactive slide chart here for those with a subscription or who don't mind burning one of their monthly views. 

    For the others, I'll post some screenshots to demonstrate. Keep in mind that this is a few years old, so everyone analyzed is a few years older and we don't have a retroactive projection for what the reality is today.

    First, focus on their partisan leaning around 20 years of age and take note of who was the president at the time and recall what was going on. Then, look down the road to the 2012 election to see how they were voting. My age group (born in 1971) came of age at the end of the Cold War, Fall of the Wall, the Golden Era of the Gipper was still shining, and we kicked some Iraqi butt out in the desert sands. As a result, white folks my age are still strongly influenced by that period.

    Personally, I was turned off by the GOP as I was detecting some of the early seeds of what we call "Trumpism" now full in bloom, and it scared the shit out of me about what they were going to become. There was Rush, Jesse Helms, Pat Roberts, Pat Buchanan, Gingrich, etc. Mean, racist, lying shitbags was their brand to me, and I felt like it was coming into ascendency. So, I was turned off very early and rejected my Republican rearing.

    Born in 1941, raised after WW2...they liked Ike.

    Picture2.png

    Born in 1951...Great Society, Civil Rights, Nixon is a crook:

    Picture3.png

    Born in 1961...Carter was a pussy but now it's morning in America again and we're the Thirtysomething Yuppies.

    Picture4.png

    Born in 1971...see above for my cohort description.

    Picture5.png

    Born in 1981...Clinton years, followed by 9/11 and uber patriotism but realizing the Iraq War kinda sucks.

    Picture7.png

    Born in 1991...War, Great Recession, Obama & Hope.

    Picture8.png

    I guess I can see how some of the early Millennials (the 1981 crowd), who weren't fully bought-in on Obama in 2012 could've been swayed by Maga. I guess like y'all said, the divide for them could really come down to education and rural/urban split. I'm just glad to see that some of my Gen Xers, at least in Iowa, may be coming to their fucking senses.

    Man, I hope they update this thing after these elections, because it's fucking fascinating.

     

     

     

    • Hook 'Em 2
  5. 26 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

     

    Nah, it's Iowa.  Aside from the Des Moines and Iowa City areas, it's entirely rural, and I'm going to venture a guess that the rural areas worldview is framed mostly, if not entirely, by Fox/Facebook/OAN.

    I'm kind of surprised it's actually 39%, to be honest.

    I get the geographic component, but what I don't get is what makes Millennials being Trump's strongest age cohort. In fact, it's the only one he leads.

    Gen Z, Gen X, Boomers, and Silent Generation ALL support Biden, but not Millennials?!? I find that surprising, fascinating, and counterintuitive.

  6. 4 minutes ago, hayden_horn said:

    next we'll find out that borat gave rudy the fucking laptop

    That would be... I don't have the words to describe it. But you know what they say, a .gif is worth a thousand words.

    d91.gif

    • Hook 'Em 2
    • Like 1
  7. 1 hour ago, The Dog said:

    NYT released their final Iowa poll and it's in line with Monmouth (Biden +3):

    NYT Final Iowa Poll

    Something's fucky with Iowa millennials.

    Picture1.jpg

    39 minutes ago, MidTexHorn said:

    I'm a shy Biden voter. I don't have a yard sign because some of these Trump voters are violent and it's not worth it to me. 

    You just moved to Austin from Midland, right? I understand your concern, but I promise you're in safe territory now.

    - fmr Big Spring resident

     

    • Hook 'Em 1
    • Like 1
  8. 6 minutes ago, Lobo said:

    So the blonde in the video still shots is Cohen? I am so confused.  I just wanted to order a BLT from room service. 

    The trailer will clear it up for you:

     

    • Hook 'Em 3
    • Like 1
    • Haha 1
    • Rage+1 1
  9. Yep, he's giving the green light to discriminate against my deaf daughter. I've never been on his "team" and have always been opposed to discrimination against LGBTQ folks, but this is like the "first they came for the socialists..." thing. It now directly hits my immediate family and always has a few gay friends.

    This is indefensible. Fuck him and anyone who votes for him.

    • Hook 'Em 6
    • Like 1
  10. 19 minutes ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

    My wife, son and I went and voted in South Austin this morning.  This week hasn't been as busy as last week, but the place we went pretty consistently has between 50 and 100 people in line most of the time.

    Are you talking about the one at Brodie & Slaughter? If so, good to know because that's mine too. I'll like go tomorrow afternoon.

  11. 24 minutes ago, Vito Andolini said:

    Jeff Davis County has one helluva GOTV program. Just load up the registered voters among the 2,252 residents in your minivan and drive them to the polls.

    Not to threadshit, but I still say we need to change the name of that fucking county. It's fucking embarrassing.

  12. 15 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

    As the southern counties always have such low turnout, I've wondered if these counties are slower to purge their voter rolls of inactive (for decades) or potentially dead people, in comparison to other counties. At some level, purging dead people from the voter rolls costs time (money) and doesn't really impact anything. 

    Or does the local party in power shy away from encouraging voting because if it ain't broke, why fix it attitude?

    Or do people in the southern counties love to register but never vote? I could understand someone not wanting to participate in the voting as they see it not impacting then. But then why did you register?

    I'm sure dissertations have be written on it. One way to get a clue would be to compare each county's registered voter figures to those of eligible voters.

  13. Here's a map of the turnout as of yesterday according to the SOS website. The Hill Country, Wilco, North DFW suburbs, are coming on strong.

    Statewide, 5.3 million have already voted which puts us at 31.3 percent turnout so far.

    Early-Voting.jpg

     

     

     

    • Hook 'Em 1
  14. 2 hours ago, Lobo said:

    Trumpject Permanence?  

    (FWIW---can't remember his name, but an absolutely brilliant UT political professor rolled out incredibly detailed meta-data for the day (this woulda been 1997 or so)...broke it down beyond reproach.  I know everybody played coulda-shoulda-woulda on the '92 election with Perot...but he broke it out by county and Congressional District in California specifically...Bush would have won California in 1992 (he carried it relatively comfortably in 1988, almost 4 full points when you take out Ron Paul), if not for Perot.  It's weird to think about that...but California has only been that red since I was in high school.  Yeah, I'm not aging well...but that wasn't that long ago.  California won't tilt red again for POTUS in my lifetime, but they have had a recent GOP governor.  Especially since their center-right residents are leaving the state in hordes.)  /csb

    Pete Wilson's anti-immigrant prop 187 killed off the GOP's prospects in California.

    Speaking of the GOP, here's the former RNC chairman's thoughts on Trump.

     

    • Hook 'Em 2
    • Like 1
  15. 1 hour ago, elfenix said:

    every other sports team has its own monster megathread, why can't austin fc?

    I mean, they still could but why not keep general soccer discussion and its various threads separate? The state will have three MLS teams come next year - one of which will be Austin's only pro big league team. Doesn't seem like a real big deal, but I'm not gonna bitch if immamac decides otherwise. I was just throwing out there what looked like a logical addition to the board while he was making all these other changes.

×
×
  • Create New...