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bolverk

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Posts posted by bolverk

  1. 6 minutes ago, Lobo said:

    So the blonde in the video still shots is Cohen? I am so confused.  I just wanted to order a BLT from room service. 

    The trailer will clear it up for you:

     

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  2. Yep, he's giving the green light to discriminate against my deaf daughter. I've never been on his "team" and have always been opposed to discrimination against LGBTQ folks, but this is like the "first they came for the socialists..." thing. It now directly hits my immediate family and always has a few gay friends.

    This is indefensible. Fuck him and anyone who votes for him.

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  3. 19 minutes ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

    My wife, son and I went and voted in South Austin this morning.  This week hasn't been as busy as last week, but the place we went pretty consistently has between 50 and 100 people in line most of the time.

    Are you talking about the one at Brodie & Slaughter? If so, good to know because that's mine too. I'll like go tomorrow afternoon.

  4. 24 minutes ago, Vito Andolini said:

    Jeff Davis County has one helluva GOTV program. Just load up the registered voters among the 2,252 residents in your minivan and drive them to the polls.

    Not to threadshit, but I still say we need to change the name of that fucking county. It's fucking embarrassing.

  5. 15 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

    As the southern counties always have such low turnout, I've wondered if these counties are slower to purge their voter rolls of inactive (for decades) or potentially dead people, in comparison to other counties. At some level, purging dead people from the voter rolls costs time (money) and doesn't really impact anything. 

    Or does the local party in power shy away from encouraging voting because if it ain't broke, why fix it attitude?

    Or do people in the southern counties love to register but never vote? I could understand someone not wanting to participate in the voting as they see it not impacting then. But then why did you register?

    I'm sure dissertations have be written on it. One way to get a clue would be to compare each county's registered voter figures to those of eligible voters.

  6. Here's a map of the turnout as of yesterday according to the SOS website. The Hill Country, Wilco, North DFW suburbs, are coming on strong.

    Statewide, 5.3 million have already voted which puts us at 31.3 percent turnout so far.

    Early-Voting.jpg

     

     

     

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  7. 2 hours ago, Lobo said:

    Trumpject Permanence?  

    (FWIW---can't remember his name, but an absolutely brilliant UT political professor rolled out incredibly detailed meta-data for the day (this woulda been 1997 or so)...broke it down beyond reproach.  I know everybody played coulda-shoulda-woulda on the '92 election with Perot...but he broke it out by county and Congressional District in California specifically...Bush would have won California in 1992 (he carried it relatively comfortably in 1988, almost 4 full points when you take out Ron Paul), if not for Perot.  It's weird to think about that...but California has only been that red since I was in high school.  Yeah, I'm not aging well...but that wasn't that long ago.  California won't tilt red again for POTUS in my lifetime, but they have had a recent GOP governor.  Especially since their center-right residents are leaving the state in hordes.)  /csb

    Pete Wilson's anti-immigrant prop 187 killed off the GOP's prospects in California.

    Speaking of the GOP, here's the former RNC chairman's thoughts on Trump.

     

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  8. 1 hour ago, elfenix said:

    every other sports team has its own monster megathread, why can't austin fc?

    I mean, they still could but why not keep general soccer discussion and its various threads separate? The state will have three MLS teams come next year - one of which will be Austin's only pro big league team. Doesn't seem like a real big deal, but I'm not gonna bitch if immamac decides otherwise. I was just throwing out there what looked like a logical addition to the board while he was making all these other changes.

  9. 20 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

    None.  Contact traced to everyone I had seen and they all tested, and tested negative.  I’m pretty sure I got it in the hospital somehow, and my wife got it from me.   

    Wishing you and yours all my best. I can only imagine how you're feeling but am confident that y'all will pull through this. Hang in there, man.

  10. 42 minutes ago, utee94 said:

    At least this time around, the death totals in France are much lower than they were in the first wave, both in absolute and in relative numbers.  That's pretty much the case across all of the European countries that are seeing a resurgence.

     

     

    That really has been the best news in the US as well. The doctors have gotten much better at treating it than in the first couple of months, so we're not seeing the same degree of deaths (also better at keeping it out of the nursing homes).

    NYTimes Covid pages (I think) are still available to nonsubscribers, so I'm putting in this link to provide some comparisons if any of y'all are a data geek like me.

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/coronavirus-maps.html

    In the link above, I really dig how they graphically display the countries in the table below the map to show the intensity of the spread over time. They also have links for more detailed information for certain countries if anyone fills like digging into the data. The interesting thing about their France data, if you go to that page, the French data shows the hospitalization rates by region and department unlike us in the US.

    Edit: I lived in France just outside of Paris for a year in high school, have been back a few times, and still keep in touch with some friends over there, so that's why I'm talking about France on a Texas board if anyone was curious why I'd give a shit.

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  11. Nice article on the resurgence of cases in France.

    tl;dr: They thought they had it mostly beaten when summer arrived and got sloppy with testing/tracing/isolation while everyone went on vacation and partying, creating new hot spots and bringing the virus home. It's come back with a vengeance, so they're reluctantly imposing curfews in cities to dampen the spread to everyone's chagrin.

    Will a Half-Step by Macron Be Enough to Blunt France’s Second Wave?
    The imposition of a curfew in several major cities underscored a difficult choice: further dampening the economy or risking more lives.

    PARIS — France thought it had beaten the coronavirus. Its comeback in a roaring second wave left the government scrambling this week for a half-measure that underscored its ugly choices.

    The French president, Emmanuel Macron, highlighted his own dilemma on Wednesday in announcing a curfew for Paris and eight other major cities. A new lockdown for an already reeling economy would have been “disproportionate,” he said, yet the pressure on intensive care beds was intolerable. “Our caregivers are exhausted,” he said.

    “The virus is recirculating very rapidly in Europe and in our country,” Mr. Macron said in an interview on national television. France had to “take back control.”

    If the virus ever was under control in France, that was before the summer. But, experts say, after that moment, the French, like so many others elsewhere in Europe, let their guard down.

    France’s attachment to its summer holidays, young people’s exuberance in going out and partying, a lack of vigilance in wearing masks and social distancing, the risks of resuming routine life, and the government’s failure — from the very start — to effectively test, trace and isolate infected people have all contributed to an explosive second wave of infections.

    Whether ordering people, starting Saturday, to stay in their homes from 9 p.m. to 6 a.m. is the answer — restaurant owners and young people are already grumbling — cannot be known immediately. But the dire outlook was undeniable. With an average of nearly 20,000 new cases a day, health experts have been warning all week that the virus is out of control in France, particularly in cities.

    Quote

     

    “Right now, we’ve got to put the brakes on it,” said Yazdan Yazdanpanah, an infectious disease specialist on the French government’s Covid-19 advisory panel. “This curfew will limit contacts,” he said. “We’ve got to lower the rate right away. We don’t really have a choice.”

    Mircea Sofonea, an epidemiologist at the University of Montpellier, said that the new curfew came in “the last possible week to react” to prevent hospital saturation. He noted that a new study found that a curfew imposed in French Guiana reduced infections by 36 percent.

    Until Wednesday night, Mr. Macron’s own indecision had emphasized the quandary faced by governments all over Europe caught between faltering economies — France is facing a recession of nearly 9 percent — restriction-weary populations and a virus that will not quit.

    The government’s hesitancy was palpable this week. The prime minister, Jean Castex, chided the French for having “decided a little too quickly” that the virus no longer posed a threat.

    The same day, the tourism minister, Jean Baptiste Lemoyne, urged people to go on vacation during the upcoming school break, to prop up the country’s vital tourism industry, whose revenues are half what they were a year ago.

    Mr. Macron himself acknowledged the impossibility of barring upcoming French vacation-going in his remarks on Wednesday night.

    Lulled by a relatively successful handling of the first wave, the government failed to firmly put in place a critical triptych over the summer — testing, tracing and isolation. The numbers are not as high as they were last spring, but they are bad enough. Nearly 100 people died in the 24 hours ending Thursday morning, far below the 1,000-plus death tolls of mid-April but still alarming.

    Cases, flat through June and July, have been rising steadily since August, with 27,000 positive tests reported last Saturday. An infection rate of 5 to 6 cases per 100,000 people over the summer has spiraled to nearly 200 across France. It is up to 800 for 20- to 30-year-olds in Paris. The government has set the red alert limit at 150.

    In the interim, bars and gyms have been shut in major cities. Establishments that serve food remain open, even if cafe owners report confusion about what qualifies as enough of a meal to keep the police off their backs.

    There have been mixed messages, too, about going back to offices. The president of the region that includes Paris, Valérie Pécresse, appealed for a return last month, even as infections started to rise. The result is that central Paris bustles with office workers, compared with moribund downtowns in the United States, though nearly everybody wears a mask. On Wednesday, Mr. Macron encouraged at least a partial return to telecommuting.

    The gestation of the current infection boom was plainly visible in July, August and September. Visitors packed France’s summer watering holes after the government encouraged tourism, anxious also not to get crosswise of the sacred ritual that is the French summer holiday.

    A wave of indignation greeted mild suggestions that workers should give up some vacation days to compensate for those lost during the lockdown.

    In Paris, as they returned from these hot spots, young people spilled from crowded bars onto the sidewalks in the city’s bohemian eastern districts and massed along the banks of the Seine. There was no social distancing and few masks. France thought the virus was tamed.

    “There was certainly a lack of understanding in a part of the population that didn’t believe in a second wave,” said Renaud Piarroux, an epidemics specialist at Pitié-Salpêtrière Hospital in Paris. “Some in the younger population abandoned the necessary precautions,” he said, like wearing a mask and social distancing.

    Before Mr. Macron’s announcement on Wednesday, several health experts predicted a severe reckoning in the coming weeks.

    “It’s all over,” William Dab, a former national director of public health who has been critical of the government’s response, said earlier this week. “We’ve lost the fight. It’s out of control.”

    Mr. Dab chided the government for what he called a “strategy deficit” that had not motivated individuals to change their behavior. In the Paris region, he added, “there is nothing left to be done.”

    The one ray of hope in France, as elsewhere, is that treatment methods have improved since the spring, allowing more patients to be saved. Still, the head of Paris hospitals, Martin Hirsch, warned on Tuesday that coronavirus patients would most likely fill up to 90 percent of intensive care beds in the capital by next week. Already more than 1,600 of France’s 5,000 intensive-care beds are filled.

    A report from independent experts, commissioned by the government and released this week, concluded that France had done far better than Britain, Sweden, the United States and Southern Europe, but not as well as Austria or Germany.

    The French obeyed the lockdown imposed by the government in March, April and May. Then, with cases flatlining, they flocked back into the streets, stores, cafes and restaurants.

    Citizens let down their guard, reinforcing what Bernard Jomier, a member of the French Senate commission examining the government’s pandemic response, termed a “collective deficit of public health culture in our country.”

    “We are a country where the politics of prevention is not part of our culture,” he said in an interview this week. “There are elements in French society that are favorable to the development of the virus.”

    The consequence has been a “hesitation in the government’s official line,” said Mr. Jomier, a Greens party lawmaker who represents a Paris district. “The governance of public health is not well organized.”

    “Testing, tracing, isolating — this has been a failure,” he said. “Badly elaborated, badly implemented.”

    At Charles de Gaulle Airport for example, arriving travelers are tested, but they do not get the results for at least a week.

    Contact tracing has also “failed,” Mr. Jomier said; Mr. Dab, the former public health director, called it a “fiasco” in an interview in the Journal du Dimanche in September, noting that the five contacts traced per case in July had dropped to two.

    “The number of contacts is very far below the actual number of contacts,” said Mr. Piarroux, the epidemics specialist. “It’s all happening over the phone. So there’s less motivation” to divulge the contacts.

    Both he and Mr. Jomier also said that isolation, the third part of the triptych, had hardly been enforced, pointing to out-of-control infection rates in shelters that house migrants.

    On Thursday, French newspapers grimly recalled the curfew imposed during the German occupation, and industry groups called for new help for struggling restaurants.

    “We can’t work from 7 p.m. to 9 p.m.,” said Denis Kouch, the owner of a restaurant off the Champs-Élysées. “People don’t even have time to arrive, and then they have to leave right away?”

     

     

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