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  1. 3 hours ago, LTbear said:

    Multiple people have said the rule is 7 full members but at least 8 for an FBS football conference. Anyone who knows for sure, please chime in.

    I don't know.  I've heard people say definitively you need 8 full football members, but never say how they know that.

    I do know you need 8 football members to qualify for the College football playoff conference champions slot.

    I do know you could have 7 full football members and a Gonzaga and be an NCAA Division I conference with autobids in all NCAA championships (assuming you meet the sports sponsorship requirements, but you could bring in affiliates for sports like baseball).

    What I don't know is if 7 full football members, Gonzaga and UConn for football only would be enough for the CFP and to be classified an FBS conference or if your 8 FBS schools need to play all sponsored sports in conference.

     

  2.  

     

    In line with the comments above about the top tier, I ran across this list of FBS schools by winning % the other day.  When you exclude the newbies (Boise, Kennesaw, Coastal Carolina, App. St., James Madison, Ga. Southern), it just runs straight down the list of who's who. 

    Ohio State, Alabama, Michigan, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Texas, USC, Penn St., Nebraska

    Tennessee, Florida State, Georgia, LSU, Miami (FL), Florida, Auburn, Clemson, Washington

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NCAA_Division_I_FBS_football_win–loss_records

    Oregon is down at #40 and Colorado at #47.  I've posted before a list of the top 19/20 schools for #1, top 3 and top 5 finishes since 1960 and its those first 17 above with Washington, Oregon and Colorado #s 18-20.

    NCAA Division I FBS football records[1][2][3]
    Team Won Lost Tied Pct. Years Total Games Conference
    Ohio State 966 333 53 .734 135 1352 Big Ten
    Alabama 968 337 43 .734 130 1348 SECTooltip Southeastern Conference
    Michigan 1006 354 36 .734 145 1396 Big Ten
    Notre Dame 950 338 42 .730 135 1330 Independent
    Oklahoma 947 341 53 .726 130 1341 SEC
    Boise State 491 188 2 .722 57 681 Mountain WestTooltip Mountain West Conference
    Texas 951 392 33 .703 132 1376 SEC
    USC 877 368 54 .696 131 1299 Big Ten
    Penn State 932 409 41 .689 138 1382 Big Ten
    Kennesaw State 71 33 0 .683 10 103 CUSATooltip Conference USA
    Nebraska 920 424 40 .679 135 1383 Big Ten
    Tennessee 868 414 53 .670 128 1346 SEC
    Florida State 581 284 17 .668 78 882 ACCTooltip Atlantic Coast Conference
    Georgia 884 429 54 .666 131 1367 SEC
    Coastal Carolina 169 89 0 .655 22 258 SBCTooltip Sun Belt Conference
    Appalachian State 666 356 29 .648 95 1051 SBC
    LSU 808 435 47 .645 131 1327 SEC
    Miami (FL) 666 388 19 .630 99 1073 ACC
    James Madison 371 221 4 .626 52 596 SBC
    Florida 759 447 40 .625 118 1245 SEC
    Auburn 801 472 47 .625 132 1320 SEC
    Clemson 799 473 45 .624 129 1317 ACC
    Georgia Southern 420 254 10 .621 61 684 SBC
    Washington 777 467 50 .619 135 1294 Big Ten
  3. On 9/24/2024 at 1:15 PM, Texas Wahoo said:

    They're thinking the same thing they thought when they left the WAC, they are trying to ditch the bottom half of the conference.

    What's funny is the 8 are lined up on different sides.

    Utah and BYU are off to the Big 12.

    San Diego St. and Colorado St. are with the Pac XX

    UNLV, Wyoming, Air Force and New Mexico are with the MWC.

  4. 3 hours ago, 'stache said:

    I would bet good money that the "poaching penalty" is unenforceable. These clauses are a form of liquidated damages and every jurisdiction literally has in their laws that liquidated damages clauses must be a logical estimation of actual damages and cannot be a "penalty." The law used that word, "cannot be a penalty." 

    Well its a recent contract.  It was done in order to give the 2Pac games this season.  It goes away in another year.  I don't think it is like the exit fees that are to approximate damages.  This is intended to be painful, just as breakup fees in a corporate merger are painful.  Its much more of an agreed purchase price.  Strikes me as a frivolous lawsuit.

  5. 5 hours ago, USC Traveler said:

    Agreed.  The idea was good, but the problem is that they didn't do enough to motivate the AAC schools to leave, probably because they didn't look at it from the AAC schools' POV.  They're also focused on keeping membership numbers low for better revenue, and maybe also living in a fantasyland that Cal and Stanford will eventually come back.

    I posted last week that if I'm running Memphis or Tulane, I'm not going to the PAC unless there are enough schools in an Eastern division to limit travel to the West Coast to once per year.  PAC would have been smart to take the top 8 from the MWC to dissolve it, then offer Memphis, Tulane, USF, UTSA and six more AAC/Sunbelt schools to kneecap the AAC and create a G6 "superconference" that would almost always get the G6 playoff bid.

    Even though it would be 20 schools, the AAC and MWC both have a lot of games broadcast on ESPN, FS1 and CBSsn, so the money would be there.

    But all of this assumes that the people running the PAC, Wazzu, and OSU know what they're doing.  As we know- they don't.

    I read they were only offering $2.5 million for exit fees for the AAC schools.  Those fees would probably be around $15-$18 million.

  6. "...But that plan is going to be limited by another reality: Memphis, one consultant told USA TODAY Sports, is not valued by TV rights holders significantly more than, say, Utah State. And Oregon State and Washington State, the two original Pac-12 leftovers who decided to bring the conference back, aren’t valued much more than Memphis. 

    In other words, the new Pac-12 was not going to be a power conference no matter which of the potential members jumped in. And the notion of a $12 million per member payday, which had been the carrot for a school like Memphis (currently making around $8-9 million in the AAC) was merely theoretical and based on calculations from the Pac-12’s paid consultants that few people across the college sports industry actually believed...."

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/columnist/dan-wolken/2024/09/23/pac-12-conference-realignment-aac/75354941007/

    This is the part that made me skeptical of all these plans.  It just didn't make sense based on the values.  WSU/OSU are not much more valuable than a typical G5, maybe less than Boise.  And after that, you've probably got Memphis, USF and Temple.  Then its all pretty fungible, some slightly worse than others.  Besides the money they are spending, SDSU seems to be mentioned mainly because they are the only G5 school in southern California.  Below are the TV ratings from Sic-em for non power schools.  The schools with 36 games over the 9 years were ranked.    Oregon St. was #66, near the bottom of the P5 and a little below Boise and Memphis and just ahead of USF.  Below that, I've ranked the schools with less than 36 games in order.  UNLV was dead last in MWC and SDSU didn't do that well either, ranked right between Buffalo and Kent.

    School All 2013-2021 Top 36 (4 Per Year) Top 36 Rank  
    Navy 45 Games, 2.33mm 2.819mm 35  
    Washington St. 56 Games, 1.407mm 1.905mm 50 P12
    Boise St. 72 Games, 0.827mm 1.258mm 63 MWC
    Memphis 52 Games, 0.918mm 1.257mm 64  
    Oregon St. 40 Games, 1.124mm 1.214mm 66 P12
    USF 48 Games, 0.861mm 1.103mm 68  
    Temple 42 Games, 0.773mm 0.891mm 70  
    Tulsa 51 Games, 0.603mm 0.82mm 72  
    Northern Illinois 36 Games, 0.648mm 0.648mm 74  
    East Carolina 37 Games, 0.547mm 0.56mm 75  
             
             
    Army 24 Games, 3.331mm N/A N/A  
    Rice 13 Games, 0.836mm N/A N/A  
    Fresno St. 33 Games, 0.697mm N/A N/A MWC
    Coastal Carolina 10 Games, 0.647mm N/A N/A  
    Ball St. 15 Games, 0.635mm N/A N/A  
    Colorado St. 22 Games, 0.605mm N/A N/A MWC
    Western Michigan 26 Games, 0.603mm N/A N/A  
    Appalachian St. 27 Games, 0.587mm N/A N/A  
    Air Force 30 Games, 0.584mm N/A N/A MWC
    Florida Atlantic 13 Games, 0.583mm N/A N/A  
    Connecticut 31 Games, 0.571mm N/A N/A  
    Utah St. 33 Games, 0.563mm N/A N/A MWC
    ULL 25 Games, 0.562mm N/A N/A  
    Western Kentucky 18 Games, 0.553mm N/A N/A  
    UAB 8 Games, 0.552mm N/A N/A  
    Hawaii 15 Games, 0.55mm N/A N/A MWC
    Southern Miss 11 Games, 0.541mm N/A N/A  
    Buffalo 25 Games, 0.529mm N/A N/A  
    San Diego St. 28 Games, 0.522mm N/A N/A MWC
    Kent St. 25 Games, 0.503mm N/A N/A  
    Marshall 18 Games, 0.498mm N/A N/A  
    Nevada 24 Games, 0.493mm N/A N/A MWC
    Bowling Green 25 Games, 0.478mm N/A N/A  
    Arkansas St. 24 Games, 0.472mm N/A N/A  
    Massachusetts 6 Games, 0.468mm N/A N/A  
    Wyoming 29 Games, 0.45mm N/A N/A MWC
    UTEP 12 Games, 0.444mm N/A N/A  
    Ohio 29 Games, 0.44mm N/A N/A  
    Toledo 31 Games, 0.439mm N/A N/A  
    Georgia St. 9 Games, 0.434mm N/A N/A  
    South Alabama 15 Games, 0.42mm N/A N/A  
    Tulane 35 Games, 0.419mm N/A N/A  
    Miami (OH) 15 Games, 0.405mm N/A N/A  
    San Jose St. 20 Games, 0.398mm N/A N/A MWC
    New Mexico 25 Games, 0.371mm N/A N/A MWC
    Middle Tennessee St. 12 Games, 0.359mm N/A N/A  
    Eastern Michigan 9 Games, 0.35mm N/A N/A  
    Central Michigan 17 Games, 0.347mm N/A N/A  
    Texas St. 15 Games, 0.337mm N/A N/A  
    Louisiana Tech 14 Games, 0.334mm N/A N/A  
    UTSA 16 Games, 0.314mm N/A N/A  
    UNLV 20 Games, 0.307mm N/A N/A MWC

     

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  7. 10 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

    It’s not always bullshit, here just a few historical examples:

    Texas couldn’t leave aggy for the SEC back in the late 80s and then had to take Tech as a tagalong when we tried going to the Big8.

    Virginia Tech got into the ACC over Syracuse (who was the first choice) due to politics, and the only reason UNC isn’t suing the ACC currently is also politics.

    Alabama and Auburn were forced to play each other after 40 years due to the state legislature which is why even 60 years later, Auburn remained in the SEC West after adding two members West of the Mississippi River, and Missouri ended up in the SEC East despite being West of the majority of SEC West members.

    The State of Louisiana blocked the University of Louisiana from upgrading to FBS for year and then only allowed it if they changed their branding to Louisiana Lafayette and also upgraded along with Northeast Louisiana who they made them change their branding to Louisiana Monroe so people wouldn’t think ULL was the flagship over LSU and because Louisiana Tech was worried about being perceived as a weaker football program in the state.

    Just because it’s not 100%, doesn’t mean it’s not real.

    ULL has always been FBS.  They didn't move down in 1982.  LT didn't move up until 1989 and ULM until 1994.  

  8. https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/conference-realignment-update-recap-gonzaga-pac-12-mountain-west-aac?

    McMurphy's summary:

     

    "For college football fans wondering what conference realignment would look like if they could speed date for new partners, Monday provided a real-time glimpse.

    And like most reality TV shows, it was part lovefest, part trainwreck, and you couldn’t look away.

    It started with Memphis, USF, UTSA and Tulane — all of which had offers to join the Pac-12 — announcing they were committed to the AAC. They sent out a 120-word commitment to the AAC ending with “The American Way.”

    Lately “The American Way” has been conference realignment...."

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  9. 1 hour ago, TKthunder2 said:

    They aren’t choosing to stay. They politically have trouble leaving Nevada-Reno. Rumor is Reno stopped investing in athletics after they got the MWC invite and has done next to nothing to improve. That has irritated the MWC members so they don’t want to invite them and UNLV can’t easily leave them.

    If the PAC gets to 7, I assume they would give UNLV an ultimatum, join now or never, which might give them enough cover to leave Reno. I’d bet if they stay on this path that UNLV will be #8.

    MWC is trying to get commitments.  its going back and forth.  Air Force has committed.  SJSU has committed.  New Mexico and Wyoming I haven't heard, but the 6PAC has no interest in them.  Air Force and UNLV are supposed to get $10 million bonuses to stay from the Pac money.

    UNLV agreed to stay, but after Utah St. decided to leave, is now waffling.

    Latest is Utah St. to 6Pac and talking to Gonzaga all but football and UConn football only!

  10. 44 minutes ago, texifornia said:

    What happens if you elect a young New England frat bro as president. Surprisingly racist, definitely partied too hard, terrible at his job.

    Lincoln was famously quoted as saying, after being told Grant was a drunk early in the war, "Well he fights.  Let me know what brand he drinks and I'll send it to all my generals!"

  11. Other sources (less reliable than McMurphy) have said the Gonzaga deal isn't done yet, but they are talking.

    I'm inclined to go with McMurphy-all the i's haven't been dotted and the t's crossed, but its likely done.

    Dellenger is saying AFA is committed to the MWC and not going to AAC.

    Sounds like a bit of a standoff between the 6Pac and MWC8.

     

  12. 43 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

    Question for the thread, why is Memphis automatically included in every conference expansion conversation? Is Jimmy Sexton their agent? 
     

    It’s not a large TV market in a pretty poor city. Moderately successful football and hoops programs. I just don’t get it. 
     

    I guess Nevada and SJSU just need to hang around the basket until Cal and Stanford give the PAC a firm no. 

    Best TV ratings of the G5 (excluding military academies).  Best upward potential.  They have drawn 45k in the past in good years.  Hoops is really good.  How many schools outside the P6 have been to two national title games?

  13. 5 minutes ago, Red Five said:

    I guess there are no flex scheduling options, but to not have #1 Texas with a Manning making his first start on actual tv is just amazing.

    I thought all the night games were because we were on TV.  I would have expected afternoon or noon.

  14. On 9/16/2024 at 7:19 AM, hookem2010 said:

    In answer to the new site motto, I don't know what the fuck a warhawk is, but I would suggest ULM to give their name a little tweak to firehawk.

    Imagine, you're on your ranch in the Australian outback, watching a wildfire make its way to your property. Then, by a stroke of luck, it starts to burn out. You're safe! But what's that, a fucking black kite picking  up a burning stick and carrying it past the extinguishing fire line, to start a new fire in order to flush up prey? God damn it...

    They were Indians so they had to make up a stupid new mascot name.

  15. On 9/15/2024 at 8:40 PM, Elmer_Fudd said:

    Any chance this game may get moved to the actual ESPN or SEC Netowrk channel instead of the SECN+ or whatever it's on since this'll be Arch's first start and now being ranked #1?

    Aggy vs. Bowling Green is also relegated to streaming so Mickey can show Ga. Southern vs. Ole Miss on the SECN and Miami at South Florida on ESPN.

    Are they really pushing streaming or does somebody in Connecticut just hate the state of Texas?

  16. https://www.msn.com/en-us/tv/news/pac-12-gutting-mountain-west-sparks-fresh-realignment-stress-at-schools-outside-power-four/ar-AA1qRIQw

     

    "...The first level of those concerns revolves around simple math: Until the Pac-12 lands a media deal, there’s no guarantee of a significant increase from what Memphis makes in the American Athletic (estimated to be in the $8 million-$9 million range). But the valuations being discussed for the new Pac-12 by its media consultants in the $10 million-$12 million range are only theoretical at this point, and may not make a meaningful difference financially when you consider increased travel costs.

    Crucially, though, maximizing the value of the new Pac-12 is also going to depend on selling a true “best of the rest” configuration that Memphis and others would need to commit to with a Grant of Rights agreement that locks them into the league for the length of the contract.

    That illustrates the other reason why patience may win out at Memphis. After an unsuccessful pursuit of Big 12 membership, school officials there are now eyeing the ACC as a potential landing spot in the next handful of years....

    The Pac-12’s resurrection, though, has forced Group of Five administrators to acknowledge the reality that either one of the current leagues will fold or more FCS members are going to be brought up to FBS to backfill amidst the game of musical chairs.

    Both options are bad, but the latter may be worse...."

     

  17. 4 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

    One elephant in the room in the future is the quality gap between the Big 10 and SEC.  The Big 10 just isn't that deep with elite teams.  2/3rds of the league are Big 12/ACC schools with nicer, richer parents.  The SEC is about 25% schools that fit that bill, by comparison.

    Another thing is people keep asking "what's the end game?" like there's a tight cabal that has a specific outcome in mind and is just slow rolling the whole thing.  I think it is FAR more chaotic and random than that, with decisions being made on what's profitable in that moment, with no centralized goal whatsoever.  Over the last 20 years there have been many guarantees in realignment that didn't pan out.  The 4 x 16 superconferences with the champions in the playoffs made up of pods, with the conferences being the Big 10, SEC, Pac 12, and ACC as the Big 12 died was the guarantee.  Now the Pac 12 is dead, and the Big 12 is as well positioned as the ACC if not better.  The current guarantee du jour is that the Big 10 and SEC will break away into somewhere between 32-48 schools into an NFL Lite.

    I have little doubt there will be future brand consolidation (the big ACC brands going to the SEC/Big 10) but I don't think that straight AFC/NFC model unfolds like that.  I think there's some kind of split in D1 with the current G5 in one group and the current P4 in one group.  The Big 10 and SEC will have the bulk of the money and power, but whatever playoff exists will have some token access to the third conference (if we even call them that at that point) that shakes out when the ACC left-behinds that still care about sports merge with the Big 12 into a third conference.  I believe that ultimately walling off access to the roughly 60 schools not in a top 48 would lead to less interest in that level of the sport, and therefore less revenue created.

    Basically, I think it continues on the same path it's kind of on already, just with some more deck reshuffling and brand consolidation.

    There is no end game.  It always changes.

    The conferences are getting so big, there are going to be differences and schools dissatisfied with their number of conference titles.  Every conference that has gotten to 16 or more has eventually split.  Its happened before, it will happen again.

    But I think it will take a while this time, maybe 20-30 years before the Big 10 and SEC crack up.

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  18. 44 minutes ago, Evil Bill Obrien said:

    Gonna be interesting to see how things evolve for the new-PAC, they willing take a flyer on UTSA and either Texas State or UNT (or maybe Rice?) to get a couple Texas schools in the footprint even if as they currently stand viewership support doesn't really add up financially but might pan out in the future? 

    Would love for Texas State to get together in a conference with UTSA again and whatever form new-PAC takes does seem like an optimal way for that to happen, 2nd to AAC getting raided for Tulane and Memphis but leaving UTSA behind and Texas State getting the call to fill in there. 

    Feels good possibly having multiple decent possibilities open in realignment for once, last time it was "here is your Sunbelt spot, take or get left for dead on the side of the road somewhere"

     

    https://sports.yahoo.com/go-west-the-next-wave-of-realignment-is-in-memphis-hands-135625431.html

    Article today.  Apparently its all on Memphis.  PAC wants Memphis, Tulane, USF and UTSA.  Projecting $12-$15 million total conference distributions (TV, NCAA bb, etc.).  Memphis isn't thrilled and worried about the validity of the projections.

  19. 14 minutes ago, 'stache said:

    This. You don't even have to be mean about it, they're the newbs and have history with UCF and Cincy. WVU is the one that would be upset but they really don't have an argument for any other pod because of they're location. And to your earlier point, OSU should be with the Texas schools.

    West: UU, BYU, AU, ASU

    South: OSU, TT, TCU, BU

    North: CU, KU, KSU, ISU

    East: WVU, UC, UCF, UH

    Play your pod every year plus two from the other pods. This is for scheduling only, still divisionless for standings and CCG purposes.

    It makes too much sense, so of course it didn't happen, because college football has lost its fucking mind. 

    UH has barely played UCF.  They don't really care about Cincinnati.

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