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Posts posted by bullet
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Interesting data:
"...The impact of the transfer portal is striking: After eliminating those who graduated or departed for the NFL, a whopping 40% of the remaining players with all-conference honors switched to another program. The vast majority of them bolted to a team in the Power Four (the Atlantic Coast, Big 12, Big Ten and Southeastern conferences). Even when adding second- and third-team all-conference picks, 36% wound up transferring.
The data shows the extent to which the balance of power has shifted in college football. The smaller conferences have always had a disadvantage compared with their larger peers. Now, they have effectively become a farm system—developing talented players only to lose them to their wealthier competitors. Competing against the likes of Alabama and Michigan was always hard, even before those juggernauts could just snatch up players like books in the campus library.
“Some of those leagues,” former Texas A&M coach Jimbo Fisher said in a radio interview earlier this year, “they’re becoming glorified junior colleges...."”
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10 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:
Many people think it will come to an extreme but I predict a more logical conclusion for all involved is to break up the ACC keep the current conference model then breakaway with the P3 conferences. You’ll have the B1G/SEC on the major network spots with a few B12 games sprinkled in but mainly filling up tier 2 cable. You keep the Big 12 around to not piss off the government too much as they have 5 states that wouldn’t be included otherwise (and the #2/3 public schools in 5 other states as well).
The Vandy and Northwesterns of the world will eventually be convinced to take a pay cut as the leagues shift to a performance/viewership payout model, as you can clearly see what happens if you piss off your money makers like USC and FSU, and being in the club at reduced shares is far better than being out of the club like WSU/OSU.
I see this as a breakaway for most major team sports: football, m/w basketball, baseball, softball, volleyball, w soccer; but I’m less sure about those with team and individual components like tennis, golf, t&f, cross country, swim/dive (as those might benefit from remaining with the NCAA and still competing with the Ivy League and Big West type schools) or more regional sports like m soccer, Hockey, LAX, FH (as those are not played significantly by this group of 60ish schools).
I think the walk-ons might be one of the biggest reasons to breakaway as it seems most of the big name teams want the walk-ons not to count against the total roster spots.
That argument is over. There are no walk-ons at the big schools. Everyone will be getting a scholarship and NIL money and, soon, directly paid. That's part of the House settlement, not that they have to give scholarships to everyone, but the scholarship limits are gone. Its roster limits. 100 for football. Baseball I think was 39. And they will get full scholarships in the P4, no longer partials. Sankey has been talking about that for several years.
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On 8/17/2024 at 10:36 PM, iamjethro said:
The reason that I can see is this: Do you lock up the people that watch those top 40 teams (a huge number for sure), or do you figure a way to game the sytem where you get those teams viewers, plus everyone else whose numbers help your viewing public. Even a Wake Forest fan will watch a game if a team they play againts often (maybe considered a rival) is playing. If even just to hope to see them lose. If you take away those college connections, you take away some casual viewers or fans of other teams because it does not involve them in that world anymore.
Not only that, but you can pick up wins from a name school as opposed to a school viewed as no different than FCS. How many typical fans would know that Troy or Jacksonville St. or Sam Houston St. or James Madison play in a different division than Tennessee Tech, Western Illinois or Northern Colorado?
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https://www.extrapointsmb.com/p/heres-expect-conference-realignment-slow-near-future
Matt Brown thinks nothing is happening in the near future. Matt writes a newsletter, extra points. He is really knowledgeable and connected on non-P4 schools. This article is not restricted to subscribers.
Basically, the ACC lawsuit is holding every up from doing anything. And, he's hearing the same thing as McMurphy, network money is tight even for an FSU. G5 is also tied down because of what the Pac 2 might do. Finally, the House settlement isn't finalized and so conferences and schools don't know all the implications.
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On 8/1/2024 at 6:18 PM, gatormarc said:
Not according to Wilner, but the ACC is possible.
“"...Some form of affiliation with the Mountain West is likely,” the source said. “But given other uncertainties, (WSU and OSU) could have other options to consider....”
If the Seminoles and Tigers depart, a restructuring could ensue.
“That’s what has changed since last summer,” the source said. When the Pac-12 fractured in August 2023, “those lawsuits didn’t exist. They have caused people to re-think the situation: ‘If this, then that.'”
The conversations are not based on the presumption the ACC will collapse in the next year. “It’s more about possible changes in 12 to 36 months,” the source said.
“Washington State and Oregon State are strong football brands … They drive viewership. What are the opportunities over the next 36 months for two strong brands?”
The Big 12 is “not interested” in adding the Cougars and Beavers as members, a second industry source said...."
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On 7/22/2024 at 10:29 AM, Hurtlocker said:
Maybe its not 2027...
My understanding is they can totally opt out of the deal in 2027 if they do so by February 2025. The deadline was February 2021 until the commissioner's office extended the option without a vote by membership.
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On 7/23/2024 at 6:17 PM, DaggerHorns said:
It’s the only time I’ve ever seen an official actively bump into a coach and throw a flag on the coach. The fix was in and it was complete fucking bullshit.
You wonder if it was because they hated Texas, hated Strong or were getting a cut of the gambling.
Or all 3?
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On 7/23/2024 at 2:27 PM, Zeus said:
It's a thing, there's also no "comeback mode" for teams down two touchdowns to force the game into an exciting last second play to win or lose.
Also there is no longer official reviews every other play, or huddles to decide the call that take 1-2 mins.. There's not going to be anymore players thrown out of the game for blowing up a bubble screen either.
Basically we are going to be watching football from now on instead of refball.
You don't watch much SEC football, do you?
One thing they don't call is late hits. More players get hurt in the SEC.
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11 hours ago, nineliveslost said:
The top brands are going to get stronger and push out all others. This is bad for collegiate football in my opinion and is one of the bigger hits that will alter college football dramatically. not a fan of it
I think the bigger impact will be on sports other than football and basketball.
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Somebody was interested in 20 year attendance averages:
1 Michigan Big10 110,341 2 Ohio State Big10 104,742 3 Penn State Big10 104,323 4 Tennessee SEC 98,819 5 Alabama SEC 96,361 6 LSU SEC 95,290 7 Texas Big12 94,278 8 Georgia SEC 92,704 9 Texas A&M SEC 89,820 10 Florida SEC 88,250 11 Nebraska Big10 86,003 12 Auburn SEC 85,591 13 Oklahoma Big12 84,589 14 Clemson ACC 79,602 15 Notre Dame Ind 79,466 16 Wisconsin Big10 78,933 17 South Carolina SEC 77,996 18 Southern Cal Pac12 75,576 19 Florida State ACC 74,621 20 Michigan State Big10 72,710 21 Iowa Big10 68,631 22 Arkansas SEC 65,987 23 Washington Pac12 65,065 24 Virginia Tech ACC 63,661 25 UCLA Pac12 60,661 26 Kentucky SEC 60,244 27 BYU Big12 60,068 28 Missouri SEC 58,434 29 Mississippi SEC 57,124 30 Oregon Pac12 56,722 31 N Carolina State ACC 55,773 32 West Virginia Big12 55,540 33 Texas Tech Big12 54,473 34 Arizona State Pac12 53,941 35 Mississippi State SEC 53,041 36 Iowa State Big12 52,235 37 Oklahoma State Big12 51,794 38 North Carolina ACC 51,713 39 Purdue Big10 51,244 40 Miami, FL ACC 51,236 41 California Pac12 49,530 42 Kansas State Big12 49,348 43 Virginia ACC 48,224 44 Arizona Pac12 48,189 45 Minnesota Big10 47,414 46 Colorado Pac12 47,024 47 Georgia Tech ACC 46,435 48 Illinois Big10 46,355 49 Louisville ACC 45,825 50 Pittsburgh ACC 45,750 51 Utah Pac12 45,653 52 Maryland Big10 42,963 53 Rutgers Big10 42,445 54 Stanford Pac12 41,414 55 Baylor Big12 40,637 56 Indiana Big10 40,632 57 East Carolina American 40,093 58 TCU Big12 39,769 59 Oregon State Pac12 38,785 60 Kansas Big12 38,192 61 Syracuse ACC 37,308 62 South Florida American 37,196 63 Boston College ACC 36,907 64 UCF Big12 36,545 65 Fresno State MWC 34,537 66 Navy American 33,948 67 Boise State MWC 32,697 68 Air Force MWC 32,514 69 Northwestern Big10 32,219 70 Army Ind 32,037 71 Memphis American 31,861 72 Vanderbilt SEC 31,845 73 Cincinnati Big12 30,928 74 Connecticut Ind 30,749 75 San Diego State MWC 30,073 76 Washington State Pac12 29,930 77 Wake Forest ACC 29,415 78 Hawaii MWC 28,403 79 UTEP CUSA 27,709 80 Houston Big12 26,914 81 Appalachian St. SB 26,596 82 UTSA American 26,448 83 Southern Miss SB 26,385 84 Colorado State MWC 25,572 85 Marshall SB 25,019 86 Duke ACC 24,499 87 New Mexico MWC 23,857 88 Temple American 23,039 89 James Madison SB 22,054 90 Troy State SB 21,275 91 Tulane American 21,114 92 Toledo MAC 20,684 93 UAB American 20,503 94 SMU American 20,486 95 UNLV MWC 20,411 96 Tulsa American 20,264 97 Wyoming MWC 19,985 98 Louisiana-Lafayette SB 19,860 99 Arkansas State SB 19,713 100 Old Dominion SB 19,363 101 Nevada MWC 18,841 102 Rice American 18,829 103 Louisiana Tech CUSA 18,564 104 North Texas American 18,437 105 Ohio MAC 18,437 106 Liberty CUSA 18,100 107 Jacksonville St. CUSA 17,958 108 Georgia Southern SB 17,917 109 Utah State MWC 17,810 110 Texas State SB 17,768 111 Western Michigan MAC 17,707 112 South Alabama SB 16,712 113 MTSU CUSA 16,569 114 Central Michigan MAC 16,479 115 Western Kentucky CUSA 16,166 116 Miami, OH MAC 16,095 117 Northern Illinois MAC 15,959 118 Bowling Green MAC 15,725 119 Buffalo MAC 15,476 120 Louisiana-Monroe SB 15,413 121 New Mexico State CUSA 15,271 122 San Jose State MWC 15,142 123 Florida Atlantic American 15,051 124 Coastal Carolina SB 15,015 125 Georgia State SB 14,913 126 Akron MAC 14,009 127 Florida International CUSA 13,761 128 Idaho 13,071 129 UNC Charlotte American 13,023 130 Kent State MAC 12,731 131 Ball State MAC 11,955 132 Eastern Michigan MAC 11,932 133 Massachusetts IND 11,854 134 Sam Houston St. CUSA 7,018 135 Kennesaw St. Ind 6,304 -
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2 hours ago, 'stache said:
There was an exit fee, each agreed to pay $50 million, and the deal was struck before the withholdings would have gone into effect. Annual distributions were around $40 million, so two years withholding would have been about $80 million per school, the agreement was for a reduced fee and for it to not be paid through withholding (hence they got their distribution the final year, I'm not sure when and how the exit fee is meant to be paid, I assume over time).
The deal was struck in February of 2023. The Big XII contract went through 2024-2025, so the two years of withholdings would have been for 2023-24 and 2024-25. The reduced fee was negotiated before it went into effect for all of the reasons deals get made, to avoid fights over the terms. The OOC game swap was to keep FOX happy, they were the biggest holdup on the early exit once the conference and OU/TX had worked out a deal in principal. ESPN was always on board.
Texas and Oklahoma paid nothing. All those numbers were: No TV distributions in 2024-5 when they were no longer members. Reduction in 2023-4 just like the 8 remaining members to pay for the 4 new schools.
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6 hours ago, 'stache said:
Sounds like bs coach speak. FSU is definitely additive. If Clemson's run is over and isolated I can see them being borderline. But LOL at either conference (BIG especially) calling them "disruptive partners." The BIG literally just killed another conference and has poached from the other two over in recent years. That's disruptive as fuck. They did it for money which is understandable. FSU and Clemson want out because of money which should be understandable. It feels to me that they pissed ESPN off by questioning the bs contract they are locked into which pays them far less than everyone else for a much longer time. It's shady as shit that they had to sue to see the media contract to which they are bound. All they had to say was "we are not looking to add teams that are bound by other obligations." At this point I just don't see anything happening for a while. If ESPN is mad at them, they aren't paying them to move to any other conference including the Big 12.
Agree with you. I mean Big 10 and SEC are fat and happy, but SEC certainly would take FSU. If they were free, pretty likely Big 10 does too. Note McMurphy's last line. SEC guys says, yes, there is room for more in the logo.
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On 7/12/2024 at 3:45 PM, 'stache said:
So no link? Here's what I remember. The offer included aggy, I don't recall anything about a conference network. I also recall that KU had a pretty sweet tier 3 deal of their own.
Edit: To add that if the offer was spending a bunch of money to set up and own a conference network, like the PAC did, then it was a damned good decision not to do it. The LHN was a partnership with ESPN using primarily their resources, made far more sense with far less risk.
Texas and Nebraska wanted a conference network back around 2007 when the Big 10 did it. Everybody else voted no to the network and no to even funding a study. Nebraska and Texas jointly funded a study themselves and both decided to start their own network. Nebraska says they were even farther along than Texas when the Big 10 deal came along.
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On 7/12/2024 at 12:37 PM, gatormarc said:
Its clear he failed to explain it to himself. He put out the most ridiculous things. It was clear he was regurgitating whatever stories people told him and didn't understand it at all. He may have had reasonable sources, but that doesn't mean their information was reasonable.
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On 7/11/2024 at 1:40 PM, tx 3 putt said:
same guy said Houston would 100% have power by noon today 🥺🥺🥺🥺Monday and we had at least one friend without power.
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8 hours ago, gatormarc said:
Well that really isn't that far out of line from what Hurtlocker has told as, and I value his opinion! WVU gets the Big 12 attention in a lot of eastern markets. Its the Mountaineer diaspora. I can't say there is anyone below them I really disagree with but #s 25-28-Miami, Washington, Oregon and UCLA.
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Meanwhile, everyone is worried about flagpoles and redoing courts.
"LONG BEFORE MONDAY'S celebration in Norman marking the dawn of Oklahoma's new era in the SEC, Greg Tipton, the school's executive associate athletic director for internal operations, facilities and events, had an epiphany.
It was last July, and Oklahoma was already well into its process to chronicle all of the Big 12 logos around campus to be replaced with new SEC marks.
"I need to go count those flagpoles," he thought, about the flags that fly over the south end zone videoboard at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium and represent each conference member. "You have your American flag, your state flag, your OU flag high up in the center, but then there were 10 flagpoles. I'm like wait, there's this ... We've got to fix this...."
TCU, however, is over such calculations. At a school that has been in five conferences -- SWC, WAC, Conference USA, Mountain West and Big 12 -- since 1995, staff has a more measured approach to the changes.
"I'm taking all the flagpoles down," said Sassan Sahba, the Horned Frogs' associate AD for facilities and game days. "I'm just putting a graphic on the wall. I'm not going to add in flagpoles for this year, have them be there for three years. Who knows if we're down to eight teams in four years? It just doesn't make any sense. So I'm just taking them all down. I'm putting graphics up on the brick wall in [the north end of Amon G. Carter Stadium]. It is what it is...."
Texas tasked its employees with taking photos of Big 12 logos so it could catalog them, wary of a wayward logo making its way to social media after it had made the move.
Like Oklahoma, the Longhorns aren't very experienced in moving. Their last move, from the SWC, was more of a resignation that the sport was changing, but there was still romanticism in the old league, much like there was for Oklahoma and the Big Eight and for the Pac-12 by all the former members who are now headed elsewhere. No one felt the pressure if one of those logos remained. This time around, it's serious business....
Texas' Drew Martin, a senior associate AD, said the Longhorns replaced the Big 12 logo with the SEC mark in December on their volleyball court more than six months before they were official league members because Gregory Gym, their volleyball court, also serves as a rec sports center. Texas replaces the court every five years, doing it when school is out over winter break. So they discussed it with both conferences and came to an agreement...."
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On 7/1/2024 at 10:23 AM, mdmost said:
Adding FSU and Clemson just dilutes your overall product more. I don't mean that from the perspective of either not being a good add. They are great adds. I mean from the perspective that you're now making it more difficult for your best teams to play each other and you have to work to keep traditional rivalries going. You already have a shitload of money. Why take on more mouths and make your conference unwieldy?
From listening to Sankey yesterday, he seems more than content to have just Texas and OU. Clemson and FSU, while great, are not worth getting to a stupidly high number when you already have difficulty getting teams to play each other with 16 teams.
I know there's this idea that the conferences will eventually split off but I don't see that being desirous for either unless the TV money makes it worthwhile. I haven't seen anything from ESPN or Fox that makes me think they're in a position to pay even more.
You're adding two of the best teams.
That's the thing about UNC. That is a dilution.
And realistically there are only 4 teams outside the SEC/Big 10 who are a threat to win it all-FSU, Clemson, Notre Dame and Miami. Last year there were 5-6 more, Texas, Oklahoma, USC, Washington, Oregon and maybe UCLA.
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These are the ACC and Big 12 schools.
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On 6/24/2024 at 11:42 AM, LTbear said:
Yep. FSU/ Clemson vs Bama/ Georgia/ Florida etc. could be a ratings wet dream for the networks.
Agreed. Below are the TV ratings per the Sic-em analysis from 2013-21 for ACC and Big 12 schools. Only 4 schools are ahead of Stanford who wasn't valuable enough to get in the Big 10 or to get a full share in the ACC, but FSU and Clemson rate pretty high:
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This guy seems to think FSU (and others) will be out of the ACC in the relatively near future according to his contacts in the legal profession. Josh Pate is with 247, so you can take it or leave it:
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On 6/17/2024 at 7:39 PM, Asu2215 said:
They had trouble winning 9 or 10 in the even more shitty P12.
We had trouble winning 9 or 10 in the Big 12. All it takes the right coach and USC will start winning again.
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On 5/4/2024 at 11:40 PM, Zone Read said:
Yep. Same for me except I was a bit older than you. Went to all 2005 home games, OU, Big 12 championship, and the 2006 Rose Bowl that season. I seriously wondered what the point in getting season tickets for the upcoming years was. I'd never see a season and an NC game like that again.
That was a special season. But I loved the way Colt McCoy would almost always find a way to comeback and win.
2023 was pretty good. 2024 or 2025 may be pretty special.
Realignment talk not going away
in Football
Posted
Sun Belt lost 21 all conference players to transfers, 18 to the P5. MAC 20, 16 to P5. CUSA 20-15 to P5. AAC 12, 11 to P5. MWC only 6, all to P5.