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Posts posted by bullet

  1. 19 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

    I think they’re already trending towards mediocrity and Dabo is the greatest coach in the history of the program. They’re a brand now, but I think their days are numbered. Dabo can’t keep up in the NIL Era. 
     

    I think UNC is the real prize for the Big Ten in the South. 9th in population. Great academics in the Research Triangle. Good/improving recruiting grounds. Blue blood hoops. Gradually improving football program that’s probably just one good coach away. 
     

    I think the Big Ten will head fake the SEC on taking Clemson when they really want UNC. I hope Sankey is smart enough to see it coming. FSU and UNC are the correct adds for the SEC. 

    Most recent ACC title

    Clemson 2022

    Pitt 2021

    FSU 2014

    Virginia Tech 2010

    Georgia Tech 2009

    Wake Forest 2006

    Maryland 2001

    Virginia 1995

    Duke 1989

    North Carolina 1980

    NCSU 1979

    Among newer members, Miami and BC have been in ACC title game but don't have a title.  UL and Syracuse have not won.

    North Carolina has had Mack Brown twice.  Whatever you think of him, he does have scoreboard.  He is 7th all time among major college coaches in wins, behind Paterno, Bowden, Bryant, Pop Warner, Saban and Amos Alonzo Stagg.

  2. On 9/30/2023 at 3:44 AM, billfromlaketravis said:

    What are Clemson's TV numbers? I don't think they're a slam dunk to the SEC. Again the largest city in South Carolina is Charleston at at 151k. Slightly bigger than Denton and smaller than Killeen. No thank you. It's a small state that will never grow. So another Mississippi school. 

    The SEC should be after UNC and Florida State.

    Congrats Clemson. You found an attorney that can operate a control F search in pdfs. The sky is truly the limit. 

    Well according to the Sic-em analysis (2013-2021), they were #10, right behind FSU.

  3. 5 hours ago, Doc Daneeka said:

    I print in all caps, so I’m kind of partial to Copperplate. Font choice aside, though, it feels like literally no one, at any level of any organization, knows for sure what’s going to happen. 

    I read that as:

    Clemson REALLY wants out.

    Clemson is trying to get out.

    But the SEC and Big 10 don't want to get involved until they decide to bite the bullet to get out of the ACC.

    Nobody is going to extend them an offer for 2036, so its all just winks and nods at this point.  No outright assurances.

    Lots of legwork to do to work out the deal to get out.

    I just think there is enough smoke they will get out.  UT and OU's relatively small exit cost has to be encouraging.  The 3 year exit fee is absurd and is not a factor.  But they have to deal with the GOR AND get ESPN happy with them moving.

  4. 2 hours ago, 'stache said:

    Any legitimate sources yet on Clemson and FSU finding their way out of the ACC? 

    Clemson people are saying the insiders know what they are talking about and are talking to high level Clemson administrators.  And that Clemson figures they can get out.

    Of course, the Pac 12 presidents thought they would get a great TV contract better than the Big 12's.

     

  5. 1 hour ago, utee94 said:

    Maybe?  Not sure.

    Texas sacrificed something like 20K normal seats by building out the south endzone the way it did, rather than bowling it in to match the NEZ. The UT powers that be saw no need for a 120K stadium in the current environment and chose a revenue-maximizing plan rather than a capacity-maximizing plan.  

     

    Well we went from 79k to 100k.  That was plenty of expansion.  And the corner end zone seats were awful.  You couldn't tell if a play gained or lost yards with that angle.

  6. 3 hours ago, PittsburghTiger said:

    I think you are correct, as we are on a 20-year decline in college football attendance. 

    Well its hard to tell how much of the 20 year decline is due to adding 25 schools to FBS and how much is on existing schools, if any.

  7. 5 hours ago, Texas Wahoo said:

    Not strictly realignment, but thought it was interesting that Nebraska is apparently lowering capacity by about 10k seats.

     

     

    That's unreal  Some of that has to be deliberate.  It can't all be switching to chairbacks and adding boxes.

  8. 53 minutes ago, TKthunder2 said:

    They do not have any guarantees on their broadcast windows. They and the ACC could theoretically never appear on ABC again. We know this won’t happen as a ranked v ranked matchup will get eyes but unlike the SEC and B1G which have over the air minimum considerations in their contracts.

    The Big Ten will have the Big Noon on FOX, the 230 spot of CBS, and a night game on NBC. The SEC will have their 230 spot on ABC and likely a Noon/Night game as well (though that also is not guaranteed).

    The Big 12’s biggest asset is that they are the only other major football conference on FOX and with the Big Ten’s exclusive OTA windows that leaves them some virtually guaranteed OTA windows.

    The prior contract had such specifications.  Do you have any evidence it has changed?  And of course Fox only has the one Big 10 window and can't do any Big 10 content on the other two windows.

  9. 32 minutes ago, Jabberwocky said:

     

    I'm guessing the P4, ND and the MAC and CUSA are part of the majority who favor dropping to 5/7.  MAC and CUSA will not benefit very often and so will be disadvantaged vs. AAC and MWC.  MAC has always kind of gone along with the Big 10.  MWC, AAC and 2Pac are opposed.  Not sure where the Sun Belt would fall.  But Aresco is taking a logical position of asking the P4 to do a deal.

    I think Hancock is nuts if he thinks you can change the rules in the middle of the 2024 season.  But he won't be around.

     

  10. For those like the guy in the video who missed it, this was decided November last year for 2024 and 2025:

    https://theathletic.com/3904973/2022/11/16/cfp-expansion-revenue-rose-bowl/

    • "...The Board was able to resolve issues tied to revenue distribution for the 2024 and 2025 seasons, if the CFP is to expand from four to 12 teams before the end of its current contract.
    • The source said that the revenue distribution model agreed upon by the Board will make payouts more even per Power 5 school.

    What else to know

    As it stands now, each Power 5 league earns roughly the same payout each year, regardless of how many teams it sends to the CFP or how far they advance. That has created some friction, especially for schools in leagues that are expanding.

    For example, Alabama, a team that has participated in the CFP almost every year of its existence, would be making less per year than Washington State, which has never come close to participating — all because a 16-team SEC will be dividing its revenue by more members than a 10- or 12-team Pac-12 will.

    The compromise agreed upon Wednesday reduces disparity and allows the focus to be on per-school payouts instead of per-league payouts that then get sliced different ways based on varying membership size. Payouts to the Group of 5 leagues remain unchanged...."

  11. 2 minutes ago, SimkinsMan said:

    It sounds like Clemson has an over-inflated sense of its self worth. I can see what North Carolina brings to the SEC. I see zero value in adding Clemson. 

    North Carolina is a commodity in football like the 4 corners.  Not bad, but not P2 material except as filler.

    Clemson is one of the regulars at the top of the polls and is top 10 in TV ratings over the last 10 years.  They fill an 80,000 seat stadium.

    People don't seem to understand how strong a program Clemson has been since long before Dabo.  They are really the equivalent of an Auburn or Tennessee.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  12. 16 hours ago, statsman said:

    The flex is- there aren’t going to be any Big XII games on ABC in Texas. There will be SEC games involving UT, OU or TAMU. There won’t be many Big XII games on ESPN; most will be on ESPN2, etc. Texas could have Big XII games on Fox, unless there is something bigger like a Big 10 game involving blue bloods. (Think Fox will put a Big XII game on Fox when Texas plays Michigan?😄). 
     
    Maybe they will have Texas-Auburn on ESPN instead of ABC, so they can have the UH-TT game on ABC. Does that seem likely to you?

    Wrong.  They have a contract and will be on ABC and Fox.  This sort of thing is spelled out in these contracts.

    This is just a fantasy in your head.

    Now there will be more ESPN+ games and fewer FS1.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  13. On 9/26/2023 at 12:08 PM, Laxtonto said:

    But they have a multiple-year window to fix membership. So if I'm the Pac12 I do everything I can to make sure they get a cut as long as I could. This falls right back into the potential issue of say the PAc12 reorgs membership with the MWC and then essentially keeps the CFP payout for OSU and WSU and then gives the old MWC teams a bump to be involved. So now you are stuck with a super weak autobid conference that would have to be ceded appropriately due to their autobid status thus making a major flaw in the strength of schedule in the playoff matrix..

    So if  they stick around they want to be treated as a P5 on paper and payout and yet would most likely be talent equivalent to a G5 at large

    But they do not get autobids without 6 basketball and 5 members for other sports.  So they are effectively dormant.  

  14. On 9/26/2023 at 11:48 AM, gatormarc said:

    I know for other sports, the NCAA can set a minimum number of members in order to get an conference autobid to the postseason tournament but it shouldn't be able to dissolve a conference.

    And Sankey said, the CFP is NOT the NCAA.  They will not treat a 2Pac/MWC merger as a "contract conference."  In any event, they have agreed to split the money by the number of P5 members.  So all a 2Pac gets is 2/70ths of the contract conference money.  Big 10 gets 18 shares, SEC and Big 12 get 16 and ACC gets 17 while ND gets 1.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  15. On 9/22/2023 at 10:34 PM, TKthunder2 said:

    Read that part again. We’re getting paid.

    That’s the vast majority of the money. The primary revenue pool is “other” money and ESPN is offsetting that likely as a payout for the LHN.

    No.  The majority of the money IS from the media contract, not basketball/bow/CFP.  I wasn't precise.  We aren't getting paid for the media contracts in 2024-5.  But it hasn't been disclosed how much ESPN is paying us in "transition fees."

    If ESPN doesn't want the ACC to break, they could have set it up that way so technically Texas and OU did not get to sell their media rights in the last year of the GOR, but ESPN is compensating us.

    On the other hand, it has to look like a great deal to FSU if they can get it and get into the SEC.

     

  16. 7 hours ago, BurntOrange&White said:

    image.png.3f0e2efdc890b66d27e5e06f8d76e738.png

    The way that is written makes it sound like we got out for free.  We don't get money the year we aren't there and we take the same cut everyone else does to bring in the new members.

    Its interesting that neither conference is paying us in the last year of the GOR.  But ESPN is giving us some money directly and keeping the Big 12 whole.

     

  17. 14 minutes ago, TKthunder2 said:

    LOL Week 3 PAC12 viewership 

    1. CSU at Colorado 9.3 million 
    2. SDSU at Oregon St 418K
    3. Fresno St at Arizona St 195k
    4. ????

    This Colorado thing is bonkers.

    Prime Time does know how to promote himself.  That was the highest rated after dark game ever.

    I still don't know how good a coach he will be, but he is a GREAT salesman.

  18. 8 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

    I argued for years that the Big12 ought to do something similar with the AAC.

    As we see this week, the Big12 has tons of inventory that absolutely nobody cares about.  Oklahoma State @ Iowa State?  Texas Tech @ West Virginia?  Who the fuck cares?  Those are shitty games between programs that have limited followings.

    But that Iowa State-Baylor game in November if the loser is getting relegated to the AAC?  Are you watching that?  Fuck yeah, you are.

    Kind of like Maryland and Purdue Big 10 games on NBC?  I think they can't wait until the Big 10 expands to 18.

    https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college-football-tv-ratings/

    Prime time Syracuse-Purdue drew 1.25 million on NBC, 12th for the day, behind Michigan's buy a win on BTN, Minnesota-UNC on ESPN, LSU-MSU on ESPN and 8 other games, including some buy a wins.

    Previous week Charlotte-Maryland on NBC prime time drew 665k, #17 for the week, behind Okie St.-Arizona St. on FS1, Illinois-Kansas and Ole-Miss Tulane on ESPN2 as well as 13 other games, most less than stellar matchups.

  19. 16 hours ago, Valmy77 said:

    They didn't know at the time the PAC 12 was about to collapse. They could have taken that whole league but now they are stuck with Houston, UCF, and Cincinnati forever. 

    Let's see.  Last 20 years Pac 12 champs:

    USC 7

    Oregon 6

    Stanford 3

    Washington 2

    Utah 2

    Other 7 zero

    They got Utah.  They weren't getting any of the rest.

    Last 20 years SWC champs:

    aggy 6

    Texas 5

    Houston 4

    Arkansas 2

    Baylor, SMU, Texas Tech 1 each

    Rice, TCU 0

    And BYU has an MNC.  Cincinnati made the CFP.

     

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