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Wulaw Horn

Burnt Ends
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Everything posted by Wulaw Horn

  1. Down 55 this morning. Back to worst case before the massive rally the other day.
  2. PPI came in way lower than expectations, so, that’s interesting. I don’t fully understand tariffs being a 1 time inflation event and not a big shock to the final number- but I do know that’s a prevailing school of thought. I guess it will kill demand either way price hikes and not lead to more money chasing fewer goods on one hand, but on the other prices all will go up, so I don’t understand the balance point or the measurement aspect of it. if we can dodge stagflation that’s obviously positive as compared to worst case possibilities with however this shakes out.
  3. Good inflation report the other day. Apparently everyone is hoarding gold!
  4. That was the obvious choice and you do it in the 8th, so if he shits the bed and let’s then back on the game you can still bring your closer in for the 9th. Which, as it turned out still happened, but…
  5. Because he sucks and was the worst pitcher on the roster. I was hoping for him to get in. I'm a sucker for MLB debut stories/moments and root for them as soon as possible b/c the never know what's going to happen.
  6. He was correct he only walked 2...Master Boner led off with a single Wasn't paying total attention I guess. He still fucking sucks.
  7. The dick head who walked 2 in the 8th deserves some of the credit. 3. Without recording an out.
  8. Both can be true. It’s on both of them. Just watch. We will be fine. Not today- on the season.
  9. We are really dinking and dunking them today.
  10. If paredes wasn't a fat lazy fuck (or at least slow as a tree sloth) we'd have another run here. That bloop should have been a double.
  11. There is zero chance Altuve to Abreu/Singleton turn that into an out last year.
  12. That's 3 weak fucking contact rbi base knocks in a row with 2 outs. Daddy likey.
  13. I'm sure that you will totally and completely back down in 90 days when we sign a bunch of new trade deals, right? The Japanese don't have people on a plane as we speak to renegotiate their deal. Again, I recognize the brinksmanship nature of what happened and am on record from the absolute beginning as saying "I don't like it". That's not the same thing as saying you can't get marginal improvements in acting like a jackass at the negotiating table (again, until it goes wrong). We'll see in 90 days I guess.
  14. It's not normal stuff for sure. The world is super volatile right now. It's hard and frustrating operating in that market environment.
  15. If you want to make a change and think it's necessary then acting irrational is, sometimes, a rational move. Again, I said I don't like any of that negotiating strategy of brinksmanship or convincing the other party they have to swerve b/c you are a nut, but that doesn't mean it's irrational.
  16. Is such a scenario possible? Sure. Am I predicting that? No. Just saying if that's the actual play I'm onboard. Yeah- I'm dumb. I basically predicted the strategy that made sense 5 minutes before it happened and told Horn4life to sell it all b/c I'm a big big dummy. Along with being in the top 2/10's of 1% of my industry b/c I can strategically see and put together deals better than other people. DUMB. Or, nailing the Sark hire and what he was doing after being 5-7. And writing at length about it. Or- saying the Astros were going to win the division in 23 and 24 when they were buried under a mountain of shit. My track record on this board from the beginning is wrong about everything. Go look at the 2025 draft thread where I say we are getting mid double digits from last April for another example of Wulaw missing the point!
  17. Maybe? Maybe not? There are negotiations that will happen that otherwise wouldn’t have. NAFTA probably got a little better for us in 2018 and I’d expect other things to happen the same way with this. I’m up for a bet that our trade deficits go down 10% over - let’s say 26-28 compared to baseline of 22-24. Maybe it would have happened anyway but I isn’t see anyone else offering better terms without us broaching the subject.
  18. I don’t know that was the game or not. I hoped it wasn’t and said it would be dumb if it was but it was possible he actually believed that shit. I think we will onshore some national security shit that’s China has done up to now and I think trade deficits will get a little bit better. I don’t like the negotiating strategy of brinksmanship for incremental improvements (I don’t go to my wife and threaten divorce because I want Friday to be steak and blow job night- even if it might be likely to work bc what if it doesn’t?) but who the hell knows? convincing the other person you are a nut in a game of chicken is an effective strategy to make them swerve, but why fucking bother unless it’s super important? What we are trying to do with China might be, the other stuff is dumb.
  19. It’s not just tariffs - as you know- it’s all sorts of cheating and unfair trade practices. our trade deals will probably get about 5-10% better because of this (I don’t like the strategy) with the countries onboard. We will see what the China fallout looks like eventually. or:
  20. 125% tariffs on China won’t destroy our economy overnight or ever. There’s a grand rearranging that’s possible and if that’s what we are trying to do I’m in for some temporary pain if it will bring them to heel and fix our national security problems that showed during Covid with over dependence on them. I’m just glad the plan wasn’t to nuke the entire world, which I thought might be on the table. But yeah, I basically called it 10 minutes before it happened, in real time, on this page, while also admitting it’s possible there is no grand design and he’s that dumb. Shrugs.
  21. I literally told you to do that 10 minutes prior. Ha! reminds me of getting on the phone with my clients Thursday night and Friday morning to set up refi’s. Had 10 deals ready to go and it tuned out my window on deals I started to put together at 2:00 pm Thursday more or less slammed shut by Friday at lunch time. oh well.
  22. That’s also certainly possible.
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