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Wulaw Horn

Burnt Ends
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Everything posted by Wulaw Horn

  1. To your point about it being unlikely but not out of reach I’m not sure this team has actually gotten hot or lucky to speak of on any particular run. And the health hasn’t been great. If we are a true talent 630 win team (more or less 100 wins) as I think we might be, and we get hot, we might fuck around and play 750 or 800 ball in September like this kind of teams usually do for a month.
  2. Winning Heisman is never a bad thing for a program or the player it happens for. It would be cool is all I’m saying but it’s not a be all end all obviously.
  3. If everyone is pitching well? Stick to the 6 man rotation in September. We don’t have anyone good enough that we just have to have them starting every 5th day, in comparison to there being no weak pitchers at the bottom of the order. Unless Arrighetti leaks oil, or Blanco just hits a wall (his velo was fine last start) or JV sucks or something like that. But otherwise just throw all 6 out there until you can’t due to performance. I wouldn’t hate- if you want to get back to a 5 man rotation, a piggyback start every 5th day of kikichi and Arrighetti or Blanco and Arrighetti and say the bullpen gets the day off today- that’s yalls job. And it could be an audition for the playoffs as well.
  4. I had him Thursday there and Wednesday against Boston for my ideal.
  5. Agreed. When I said Blanco has been better than him this year that’s a factually correct statement up to this point in time, but I don’t believe Blanco is a better pitcher. So- that makes him 4 or 5 depending upon how you feel about Arrighetti. It’s impossible to say who I would rather see pitch game 4 of an ALCS right now as betweeen the two.
  6. I don’t want him pitching before Valdez, Brown or JV. Blanco has been better than him this year. Arrighetti might or might not be preferable- asking 6 weeks. Unless JV sucks when he gets back we probably have 6 guys that you’d be fine penciling in to start a playoff game. Or Arrighetti turns back into a pumpkin. I don’t think he will. He’s legit good I think.
  7. Yeah I didnt phrase that quite right. I think there were some people hoping on him coming into this year and pegging him as a guy that they thought was going to break out into being a legit prospect by mastering AA ball and announcing himself and that didn’t happen, obviously. 24 isn’t old for AA in general but it’s old for someone regarded as a legit prospect for sure.
  8. Probably need a different thread title if they go to 105 scholarships. I have no good idea for an edit right now.
  9. He’s had a really rough year and killed a ton of his prospect stock, right? Here’s hoping he figured something out.
  10. Honestly, we need to put Abreu, Presley and Hader all on the 15 day DL (separate times) and just deal with that before the playoffs. All have been over thrown by a fair bit and could use the time on the shelf.
  11. WE have 3 scholarship RB's. Hes getting more than 5-10 touches in a bunch of games.
  12. So dumb. So we can get Singleton more AB's? Ugh. Call up Whitcomb if that's where we are at.
  13. You can't run for 1000 or catch 1000 unless you have done it before. I see absolutely no problem in that logic...
  14. I mean- yeah I guess. I don't really care all that much about the total overall program wins (you are right- the last decade has been brutal) I just want to move the needle on total championships and add 3 Heisman trophy's along the way or something like that. Lets start with 1 of each this year and move that needle.
  15. No idea. I was never excited about either of those guys, but had Scrub on there because I remember him pitching for the Astros.
  16. I think Mo Blackwell and David Gbenda and maybe even Vernon Broughton have all contributed too much already to really and truly be Gaskamp guys. It's basically Juan Davis. If Juan wins it this year- in the age of the portal- we might have to retire the award because it might not ever be given out again.
  17. I said Texas would surpass them as a program (check) and eventually all that other stuff would wear them down and they wouldn't be Alabama anymore. It took Texas 10 years or so to ruin Nebraska. I expect the time line will be similar for Bama. I'd be happy to make a bet with you that over the next decade Bama will be barely a top 10 program or maybe even lower if looked at from 2023-2033).
  18. That's not all bad. More Wingo going to be a super star. More- TE position is going to be a real position of strength. Quinn is really comfortable with 4 receivers. That's not on balance a bad update. The guy who gave it to me shades very pessimistic too, so there's that.
  19. I agree with you. I think their mean in an honest and open environment is less than Texas. We will see. The next 10 years going to be fascinating.
  20. OK- so Astros prospect system ranked by year: 2018- 13 2019- 12 2020-28 2021- 25 2022- 29 2023- 30 2024- 27 OK- that looks pretty dreadful- lets see how they do at graduating Stars (1 every 3 years) and solid to above average regulars (need 2 every year). If you do what I suggest is necessary that means you have 12 league average or regulars on home grown deals and 2 stars on cost controlled deals. That means you should be paying something like 60M for those 14 players. That would leave roughly 150M to spend on the other 12 players to get to the first tax line. Call it that means signing 1 super star, 1 regular star, 1 regular total dude and the rest is depth. That's where I get my metrics from- and that makes sense. Now- lets see how they Astros have done by this metric and compare to their rankings: 2019- graduated- Yordan Alvarez, Framber Valdez, Tyler White, Myles Straw, Abraham Toro (how comically bad does this look for those to come from the 13th ranked system- seriously- point and laugh and mock. 2020- Kyle Tucker, Jack Mayfield, Christian Javier, Jose Urquidy, Enoli Paredes, Brandon Bielak, Josh James 2021- Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers, Jose Siri, Garrett Stubbs, Luis Garcia, Blake Taylor, Bryan Abreu, Andre Scrub 2022- Jeremy Pena, JJ Matijevic, David Hensley, Korey Lee, Seth Martinez, BLake Taylor 2023- Yainer Diaz, Corey Julks, Grae Kessinger, David Hensley, Hunter Brown, JP France 2024- Joey Loperfido, Zach Dezenezo, Pedro Leon, Ronel Blanco, Spencer Arrighetti, Jake Bloss, Bryan King Note- you could quibble a bit here and there about years where a guy graduated. I didn't necessarily base it upon losing rookie status nor first appearing in the big leagues- it's a little subjective and I based it upon when I noticed the guy was an Astro and felt like this was his big league opportunity and it was more than a cup of coffee. That's the last 6 years. With not extensions signed this is all guys under club control making minimum wage. The tally: Superstar/MVP God level: Yordan (if you can do this once a decade you are happy about that All Stars: Tucker, Framber (this is the guys you need to send up once every 3 years or so. SIGNIFICANT contributions to WS championship teams: Christian Javier, Jose Urquidy, Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers, Luis Garcia, Bryan Abreu, Jeremy Pena Potential all stars (and maybe super stars)- Pena, Yainer Diaz, Hunter Brown, Spencer Arrighetti, Ronel Blanco (he was probably the last cut from all star team this year Solid league average regular types- Chas, Jake, Traded for interesting stuff- Myles Straw, Toro, SIri, Stubbs, Korey Lee, Loperfido, Bloss Had moments of winning play where they helped us while going to 7 ALCS in a row: Tyler White, Paredes, Bileak, James, Taylor, Hensley, Seth Martinez, Corey Julks, JP France Jury still out but I'm intrigued- Dezenzo Jury still out but I'm selling- Pedro Leon.
  21. Smart was winning an auction format with very few participants and he had the biggest bank account. It's not at all a surprise to me to see them get taken down a peg or two in an above board auction situation. I fully expect we eclipse them as a program very soon (maybe this year) in the SEC, the same way I've been predicting the demise of Alabraska for 2 or 3 years. But, if they could just turn into a smoking crater while being scorned and ridiculed by the college football world that would be absolutely fantastic. I'm ready for a world where the powers are Texas, Michigan, Domers, with a little Miami and Oregon mixed in. Basically other than Oregon you have crazy ass Miami which is always sort of fun and the only 3 blue bloods that refused to cheat rampantly when basically college football recruiting became overrun with the bag game and you saw programs cut corners and be handsomely rewarded for it.
  22. Here is what I'm hearing (and this is not from @Scipio who yall know I advertise with- I wouldn't burn him for obvious reasons). Was told I could post it as long as it's unsourced... Cook has the drops and its bad Bond is a total and complete dumb dumb Ewers loves Moore, Golden and Bolden- but the problem is they all really play the same position Wingo is our best receiver and it's not particularly close- but he needs to learn how to play all the positions so he can fit in where the other guys aren't- he can be a difference maker anywhere. Niblack is an absolute freak and impossible to guard The Baxter injury is going to be a real problem for this team (and that was before Christian Clark went down). That's it- that's what I got. The Cook part was very surprising to me. I know they like Gunner Helm so maybe we are going to see a lot more 2 TE's, 1 RB and 2 WR action than we originally thought. My guess on that would be Wingo and Golden/Bolden as the WR's we end up going to in that package. Maybe some more empty as well with the plague of RB's lost for the season.
  23. Here is the exception officially from MLB- I didn't say it quite right, but it's not a hard thing to meet: A player who doesn't meet said criteria for postseason eligibility can still be added to a team's roster in the postseason via petition to the Commissioner's Office if the player was in the organization on Aug. 31 and is replacing someone who is on the injured list and has served the minimum amount of time required for activation. (For example, a player on the 10-day injured list who has been on it for at least 10 days, or a player who has been on the 60-day injured list for at least 60 days.) Players who are acquired in September or after are ineligible.
  24. Not this again. We go through this every year. All you have to do is be in the organization by August 31 at midnight to be able to play in the playoffs. Yes- you are supposed to be on the 40 man roster or the 60 day IL to be playoff eligible, BUT there is an exception that says you can pull anyone in the organization onto a playoff roster as long as you manipulate the disabled list in such a way that basically someone in the org is put on the disabled list for a period of time longer than the season can last. So- essentially anyone going on the 15 day DL with less than 15 games left or anyone going on the 60 day Dl at any point in time after the August 31 deadline makes a team able to call whoever in the organization they want up to a playoff roster.
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