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BehoId, The Underminer!

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Everything posted by BehoId, The Underminer!

  1. I've been thinking about this for the last 24 hours. It's really gotten under my skin. This really does represent a new low. How many murders happen in our state every year? Over 2000. Clearance rate? 70%. How many pardons for those 1400 people? 1, as far as I can tell. Two guys meet on the street. Both armed. One shoots the other. Justified? Murder? Who knows? A 12 person jury is the way you determine that. And they determined that here. Abbott said this is the single one the jury got wrong. I PROMISE you the political beliefs of the victim played into this decision. Abbott doesn't know this guy from Adam. He just knows that the state will smile on him for eliminating someone associated with a political belief that is out of favor.
  2. With SC and iowa, the primaries are the reason you see weird effects there. Those are the two states with important primaries which drives a ton of contributions that don't happen in nonprimary years. 2020 was a contested D primary, lots of donations to everyone D, so the 2024 sees a huge negative delta. 2024 was contested R, lots to everyone R, so huge positive delta over 2020.
  3. this board's ability to get hurt feelings is desperate and sad.
  4. NYT: Votes for Haley aren't predictive of anything. In fact, they are low by historic standards. (Biden 2020 had 23% of people voting for folks other than him in the primaries after all other serious contenders dropped out) https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/04/24/us/elections/nikki-haley-trump-zombie-votes.html
  5. Other interesting ones include big gains in NC for Biden, which is my one pic for Red -> Blue this cycle. There are circumstantial effects here that are a big deal on a state-by-state basis, as explained by the Times.
  6. really interesting study on change of number of donors by county. a nice measure of support i've not seen looked at. so you're not just looking at numbers, but the change since 2020, which is useful to compare against because you know who won each state in 2020. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/05/16/us/elections/biden-trump-donors.html AZ: Biden (left), Trump (Right). Green is positive delta against 2020, orange negative.
  7. the travis and drainage basin -- basically from the lake west to fredricksburg -- is the driest soil out there. there's not going to be any water headed to travis that doesn't go through buchanan first.
  8. i was born right at the end of his presidency. it would have been neat to see the machinations that brought him to power. a very 'non-presidential' feeling president edit: mechanations isn't a word? how long have i been saying it like that?
  9. it happens more often than you'd think. the defense can still be a number of different things: "that stuff you said i did doesn't meet the statute." "that guy that is the lynchpin to the whole thing just misremembered the conversation." whatever. those sorts of defenses don't lend themselves to witnesses for the defense.
  10. Oops, did I leave an Ohio class submarine near crimea?
  11. I already saw tweets about "his dad was served under sergi something or other from the nkvd!" Yeah, no shit. He grew up in a Warsaw Pact country. Everyone is sprinting to the propaganda machines. "His 2nd cousin had blue and yellow flowers at his wedding!"
  12. I feel there is going to be quite the rush to bullshit facts from both sides to tie this dude to the other.
  13. i think last time the debate helped biden because everyone got to see he wasn't senile like the trump campaign was making. if he's slowed a bit and shows that, he shouldn't do it. from my perspective the stuff the last few months haven't exactly been inspiring so i'm inclined to say no.
  14. dude aligned with putin, more or less. ritter involved, perhaps.
  15. Shockingly bad ass Medal of Honor citation I just came across. It would be difficult to distinguish it from John Rambo's. https://mohmuseum.org/medal_of_honor/bennie-adkins/ https://www.cmohs.org/recipients/bennie-g-adkins
  16. Lot of ticket splitting in the polls, which (1) I think cuts against the Surly conventional wisdom of Polls Worthless Because Who Even Answers These Things Anyway? (2) is probably good evidence that the deficit is with persuadable voters at least.
  17. Evidently JD Vance in court. He’s been my pick for VP nominee.
  18. That “who becomes a Nazi” article from 1941 that whoever posted captures a lot of this in my opinion.
  19. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/13/us/politics/biden-trump-battleground-poll.html?unlocked_article_code=1.rk0.dSJw.Mb_gYHfCMvPL&smid=url-share Trump with lots of leads including big one in NV
  20. It's more interesting than good/bad to me. It is the opposite of what we seemed to have been taught in the 1980s or whatever. It's a relief that we aren't dooming humanity to live like sardines in the future while all resources are consumed, which is nice. But in our lifetimes it'll be more bad than good is my guess because our economy is very hardwired with growth as an assumption.
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