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Ghost of LL

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Ghost of LL

  1. As fortune would have it, I just wrote up a day-trip itinerary to King Ludwig's castles for a colleague who is going to Munich next month: Leave Munich by 8:00, and take the Autobahn A-95 south toward Garmisch-Partenkirchen. Exit at the town of Oberau on the B-2 and turn onto the B-23 toward Ettal. On the right side of road at the town of Ettal is the Ettal Monastery, which is worth a short stop. And on the left side of the road is a bakery that is a great stop for a quick breakfast. Just after Ettal you’d turn left toward Schloss Linderhof (https://www.schlosslinderhof.de/englisch/tourist/index.htm). It opens at 10:00 AM, and it’s best to be early to avoid the big crowds. It is built as a tiny version of Versailles, and the real interesting stuff is the grotto and the gardens. The grotto was built for Ludwig to enjoy Wagner’s operas in an immersive environment, and is really very cool. All in, it'll probably take 2-3 hours. After Linderhof, you go back out to the road and turn left (i.e., not back in the direction you came), and you get a nice little drive through the Alps and into Austria. Eventually you get to the town of Reutte, where you turn right on Highway 179 toward Fussen. Just before Fussen, you cross back into Germany and then in a couple miles you come to a T intersection. Right takes you to Schloss Neuschwanstein, left takes you into town. Personally, at this point I’d go into town and grab lunch. It’s a cute little Bavarian town with a pretty little pedestrian area in the center. There are a bunch of restaurants around. After that, you can head over to Schloss Neuschwanstein (https://www.neuschwanstein.de/englisch/tourist/). This is the castle on which Walt Disney modeled Cinderella’s Castle, and the exterior is pretty famous. The interior, however, is unremarkable. Basically, the Bavarian treasury was emptied before Ludwig could finish it, so there’s not just a whole lot to see inside. It’s definitely worth hiking up to the courtyard and then around to the side where there’s a bridge from which you can get great photos. I’m not sure going inside is a great expenditure of time. From Neuschwanstein, you can look down and see Castle Hohenschwangau, which is the previous royal palace where Ludwig was born. Again—I’m not sure it’s worth going down there. Finished with Neuschwanstein, go back out to Highway 17 and turn right. At Steingaden, turn right on Ammergauer Strasse and follow the signs to the Wieskirche (https://whc.unesco.org/en/list/271/). It’s a rococo church in the middle of a meadow (“Wies” is “meadow” in German) that marks a miraculous spring. Even if you’re not a church person, this one is worth a stop. After that, head back to Ammergauer Strasse, take a right, and that will take you right back to Highway 23 (take a right), which goes back to the Autobahn and Munich. On the way, you’re going to pass back through Ettal. I will tell you that the monastery has a brewery (as most monasteries in Germany do). And across the street is the hotel Ludwig der Bayer, which has a very good restaurant with a patio overlooking the monastery, which you may want to stop at for a snack and a beer or for dinner, depending on the hour. If you want to take an extra day and stay in the area, I think it is worth the area. You can hike around the Partnachklamm, which is a cool little canyon. Or you can take the gondola up the Zugspitze to the highest spot in Germany. Also in the town is the stadium and ski jumps from the 1936 Winter Olympics (somehow Germany got both the Winter and Summer Olympics in 1936)--really great look for the IOC in retrospect.
  2. Back in the 90s when I was a Republican, I fucking hated Bill Clinton and thought he was a complete sleazeball sexual predator. I still fucking hate Bill Clinton and think he is a complete sleazeball sexual predator.
  3. I mean, holy shit. That’s waaaay further north than we’ve thought they were.
  4. So I was going to ask how this isn't a breach of his fiduciary duty, but then I looked up DJT's board of directors and . . . he's not even a fucking director. They didn't tie him down with a directorship or anything. I mean, jesus fuck.
  5. A couple off-the-radar states here that I think I might lighten the shading on: New Hampshire: The Democrat usually wins New Hampshire, but it's typically by a pretty narrow margin. It's always a lot closer than people give it credit for. And in this election, I have some concern that Harris not going through the primary and doing the usual New Hampshire retail-politics thing back in January may be to her detriment. It might behoove her to just take a day and stop in at a bunch of diners around Manchester and Nashua to have the local television networks show you checking that box. Alaska: Alaska is in play. Only one of its three statewide federal officials is a Republican. And the Native American population, which is huge, is becoming more politically active and more reliably Democratic. This is one of those rare times when a rally might have an electoral impact--just fly up to Anchorage one day, have a rally at the airport, and fly overnight to get back. Making that effort could be worth a couple points, and a couple points might be all you need to flip that state.
  6. That’s interesting. You don’t bring up engineering vehicles for a raid. They’re planning to stay a while.
  7. I suspect they decided to bag it because the crowd was too small.
  8. The big result of this little foray--whether it is a "raid," a "reconnaissance-in-force," or a full-on invasion--is that it has conclusively demonstrated to American policymakers that Ukraine can use American weapons in Russia (even to the point of using American weapons to occupy Russian territory) and Russia will do fuck-all about it. The American restrictions can be safely rescinded.
  9. Jesus--this is fucking embarrassing for the Kiwi-haters.
  10. It's actually 1,342 registered voters, as made clear in the Ipsos link.
  11. From the handful of RFK voter's I've talked to, that's not really the intent. It's more of a "both parties suck, and I want to send a message to shake up the two-party system." And I think that's part of the explanation for why RFK's support skews young and . . . shall we say generously . . . unsophisticated. Those of us who have been around the block a few times understand how entrenched the two-party system is, structurally, institutionally, and constitutionally. It's a lesson that is only learned the hard way. It's a lesson that only gets learned from voting for a third party (and seeing your peers do the same). And that only really happens when you're dissatisfied with the candidate nominated by the party that you would ordinarily support. All too obviously, it's a lesson that a lot of voters who would ordinarily vote for the Democrat learned after voting for Jill Stein. An early cadre of Democrats learned the lesson in 2000 after voting for Ralph Nader. Today, the people who are particularly displeased with the candidate of the party they might ordinarily support are Republicans. In particular, they're young white males--exactly the type of people who haven't yet learned the lesson of why you don't vote third party.
  12. This is how you deal with the Trump supporters that are still in your life. You treat them like an asteroid that is about to hit the Earth. You don't have to stop the asteroid; you just have t deflect it a fraction of a degree. "Did you hear that Rogan in supporting RFK Jr.? I mean, I guess it makes sense since RFK Jr. makes some good points about the Covid vaccine, and Trump was the one who got the vaccine fast-tracked and everything." Seriously--if we could get RFK Jr.'s vote in Texas up to 10%, Kamala's winning this fucking state.
  13. I don't know the objective. But if the objective is Kursk, then it is probably to bypass defenses set up along the P200 highway and connect with Highway 38. Kursk is a good objective today for the same reason it was in 1943. It is an important crossroads city. Virtually all roads of any significance in Russia go to Moscow. And there is a highway through Kursk that does that (Highway 105, which goes down to Belgorod and eventually to Kharkiv). But uniquely, there is also a highway (Highway 38) that goes perpendicular. It goes broadly east-west from the Ukrainian border to Voronezh to Saratov on the Volga. There's a major rail line that does the same thing. So Kursk is pretty critical as a logistics hub for any offensive action in Ukraine. If you sever that, then it becomes pretty difficult to mount any offensive action toward Kharkiv.
  14. Dude--it's a lie. But that's what you should say to your deplorable friends/family to convince them to vote for RFK Jr. rather than Trump. Because in politics, the truth is so precious that she must be attended at all times by a bodyguard of lies.
  15. As a Republican at the time, I remember those dark days. Damn, it was rough. Going out there and pleading with voters just to vote for a Republican candidate in the House because everyone knew Clinton was going to win and Americans at that time preferred divided government. And it kind of worked, too. Clinton won 379 electoral votes. It was an ass-kicking. He won Louisiana, for fucksakes. But the Republicans only lost four House seats and somehow managed to keep control. And they actually gained a net of two Senate seats (winning seats in Mississippi, Arkansas, and Nebraska while losing a seat in South Dakota (yes, really)). But here's the thing--you could get away with that shit with Bob Dole at the top of the ticket. But with Donald Trump? For one thing, if you try that, Trump's going to trash you on Truth and everywhere else he can get a platform. Seriously--can you imagine Ted Cruz saying "you need to vote for me to retain divided government so that Kamala Harris has some checks on what she can do"? Jesus Christ--Trump would be shitting all over Cruz in a second, probably sinking him. They'll say "I can't vote for Kamala Harris; she's a socialist." But here's the thing--these people are every bit as dumb as the Palestinian protestors yelling about "Genocide Joe." They don't realize that American elections are binary. So play into that. You can't vote for Harris because she's a socialist? Fine. Great. Understandable. I get it man. I couldn't vote for Biden because he was mentally unfit. I was going to vote for RFK Jr. And now that you're guy is showing himself to be just as mentally unfit as Biden, that's probably what you ought to do. Campaigns will poll different messages and themes, but that's not what we're talking about here. What we're talking about here is the campaign's version of a horserace poll--i.e., who's winning. And a campaign isn't going to do a nationwide poll of 1,000 voters like The Washington Post or ABC News is going to do. For on thing, it's terribly expensive. And for another, it doesn't really give you usable data. Instead, they're going to take a poll of a smaller area that they know is pivotal to them. A Democrat may know that she needs to hit 70% in Milwaukee County to win Wisconsin. So she may do an internal of Milwaukee County. And it may tell them that they're fine, or it may tell them that they have work to do in that area. Or it may tell them "holy fuck--we're polling at just 45% in Milwaukee County; we're completely screwed." Those kind of polls aren't really meaningful to the general public. But they tell the campaign a lot.
  16. I think there's very little indication that rallies have any effect on polling. There is an exception for swing-state rallies held during early voting or right before Election Day, with the theory being that you generate excitement about voting for that candidate and remind people to vote. But that's not really in play in August. But that's not to say that rallies don't have value. There are a few good reasons to go ahead with them: 1) They're an organizing tool. The campaign is going to identify everyone who goes to a rally, because those are your 10/10 certain to vote for that candidate. So you put them high on your list of calls to make during early voting to make sure they have gone to the polls. And you contact them to see if they can give money or volunteer. And for those who aren't registered to vote, you register them right there. And, let's be real honest about the state of our democracy 2024--you run their contact information and make sure they haven't been scrubbed from the voter rolls. 2) It gives people the sense that there are other people with me who are voting for this person. That was a huge deal for Trump in 2016. We've often lamented on this board how all these people who never voted before came out of the woodwork to vote for (of all fucking people) Donald Trump. And the rallies were a part of that. People went out to these rallies for a show, and they saw that there were other people like them who agreed with the deplorable thoughts they had. And that energized them and motivated them to actually vote. In previous years, they would have rightly assumed that their ideas were noxious, that the Republican candidate would distance himself from them, and that there was no point in voting for a candidate that didn't share their ideas. They'd still show up in the polling as supporting the Republican candidate, but they wouldn't show up on Election Day. By the way--this is very much the same function that yard signs and bumper stickers have.
  17. It would've been merely rude if they had simply heckled her at the rally. But they had met with her immediately before the rally, and she heard them out and expressed some agreement with their position. And right after having (what sounds like was maybe) a productive meeting, they go out and heckle her at her rally? That's not just rude, that's downright dickish. I mean, seriously--fuck them. No, they don't get a public meeting in the future (very public or even just kinda public). She shouldn't reward that behavior.
  18. I don't think it's a "raid." I think it's more what you would describe as a "reconnaissance-in-force." It seems more designed to obtain information on Russian dispositions and reaction as a prelude to potential future offensive operations than a mere raid would be. I also can't help but think that it's an effort to draw Russia's ground-attack aircraft into battle on a predictable front for the Ukrainians to test out the air-to-air capabilities of their new F-16s.
  19. In an earlier era, this was what was known as a "Sister Soulja Moment." It's where a candidate publicly flogs a part of his/her base to ease concerns of moderate independents. Now, when Bill Clinton did it, it was contrived and premeditated. And frankly, it should have given Democrats a lot more pause about Clinton and Clintonism than it in fact did. But it was effective in causing some people who otherwise would've voted for Bush (or Perot) to vote for Clinton. This was much more organic. They came to her and heckled her. But it has the same effect. Look--their position isn't popular in America; it's particularly unpopular among swing voters. So telling them to shut the fuck up in a public setting is probably good electoral politics.
  20. Jesus Christ, I’m starting to wish Pimphand would come over and derail this thread, because I don’t love the track you just put us on.
  21. I think it's a lot simpler than that. He's scared. And I actually don't really blame him for that. Less than a month ago, he came within a few inches of having his head blown off. I don't think it's particularly surprising if that was in his brain when thinking about whether to do another rally. He only does the rallies for fun, anyway. I'm not saying that there isn't a campaign benefit associated with a candidate's rally, but that's not why he does them. He does them because he thinks they're fun. But worrying about getting shot in the fucking head isn't very fun. And if they're not fun anymore, then he's not going to do them.
  22. I wonder if it's not so that lab results can come back before the medals are handed out. That way you don't have another instance like what happened to our figure skaters, who just got their gold medals yesterday from the Beijing Olympics after the Russians were disqualified.
  23. I don't think I've ever seen a runner gritting his teeth like that in a winning effort. Just incredible.
  24. I'm just going to observe that, even assuming that the necklace did cost $62,000, her husband was a fucking partner at DLA Piper. Yeah--I think he can afford to buy his wife some nice bling.
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