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Immaculate Vibes

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Everything posted by Immaculate Vibes

  1. This is why vaccine passports had to be stopped at all costs in a free society. Perfect back doors for creeping government control of daily lives. Of course that’s typically dismissed as conspiracy theory on these forums.
  2. Correct. The best case otherwise is the current system where monetary debasement continues and financial censorship becomes more accepted and common. The worst case is we go full CCP and have a CBDC where all transactions could be tracked, censored at will. Truly a totalitarian nightmare. Bitcoin fights both of those. Im not going anywhere.
  3. No thanks. It’s historically performed fairly well. Let them stay here. Helps to figure out public sentiment.
  4. I’m bitcoin focused. The other stuff isn’t that interesting to me. What people need now is a decentralized censorship and confiscation resistant asset. The others are too centralized and not really solving any urgent societal or financial problems.
  5. Hadn’t seen the Exxon response shared. In the short term, the U.S. government could enact measures often used in emergencies following hurricanes or other supply disruptions -- such as waivers of Jones Act provisions and some fuel specifications to increase supplies. Longer term, government can promote investment through clear and consistent policy that supports U.S. resource development, such as regular and predictable lease sales, as well as streamlined regulatory approval and support for infrastructure such as pipelines.
  6. I’ve seen a good suggestion that we onshore polysilicon production from China. It would require more energy generation here, but we could utilize our natural gas resources to help it happen. Win/win. Then we aren’t depending on coal and literal slave labor in China for our solar panels here. That’s a big part of why they’re “cheap”. Overall a good discussion and understanding of the trade offs are what’s lacking today.
  7. 1) a shift to renewables shifts our dependency to China. 2) you’re really acting like there wasn’t a looming energy shortage before Putin invaded? EU was already having shortages and price spikes. They are much farther down the road of don’t drill, all renewables. Crude oil and Us natural gas were moving higher. The invasion obviously spiked things, but the table was set for this to happen. 3) shifting investment to renewables was always going to cause tighter supply and thus higher prices in fossil fuels when there’s still such high demand. Not sure why that’s surprising. Also, going after cyclical businesses for making money is funny. Can’t wait until Biden is going after farmers for high food prices. You know it’s coming.
  8. TIL the Fed doesn’t consider the stock market. 🤔 Interest rates, big currency moves like the yen. Disorderly moves in a complex system
  9. True. I’m more concerned about having to ease/print with elevated inflation.
  10. Disagree. Look at bonds moves since last cpi print and leak of 75 bps hike. Massive sell off that can certainly have ripple effects. I shared the latest Druck interview on another thread, but the two highlights to me were, we’ve never had inflation over 5% and got it down with a soft landing. Also, we’ve never had inflation over 5% and tamed it without getting fed funds rate over cpi. That will never happen now. So what happens? But if we had made moves last summer when experts wrongly said it was transitory, maybe we could’ve averted this crisis. And I say it’s a crisis because we’re really stuck in a corner if you look at the precedents I shared above.
  11. The gripe here has always been the timing. If they had ended QE and started hiking sooner, perhaps they wouldn’t be having to play catch up, and taking extra risk in the process.
  12. The amount of interest rates hikes and economic contraction needed to really bring down oil and other commodity prices is not tenable. So elevated energy prices will be setting an elevated floor under inflation until supply is increased or balance is somehow achieved.
  13. More on the level of inconvenience but popping up more and more.
  14. 1) he’s considering ways to subsidize demand (temporary elimination of fuel tax) while considering ways to dampen supply (windfall tax). These ideas shouldn’t even be floated in media 2) there’s been plenty of moves they’ve made to deter drilling and building of infrastructure. Most of them on the margins but when combined with campaigning on killing the business, it’s not hard to see it as a hostile business environment for oil and gas. The whole, “why won’t these guys drill, and where did all the refineries go?” act is so weird. The stated goal has been to crush demand. 3) He’s been named a key adviser to Biden. 4)whatever
  15. They can’t be. Everything around you is dependent on them. Biden going with the classic strongly worded letter.
  16. This is a big deal, not really discussed that I’ve seen. So it said UP blames dropping deliveries on staffing issues. Looks like they are having trouble meeting volumes.
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