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Vegas64

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Everything posted by Vegas64

  1. I'm a retired history teacher who has too much time on his hands and super interested in technology from an angel investor perspective and from a sociological perspective (just bought Daniel Susskind's new book, A World Without Work). As someone who is not technical, I've found AI to be very liberating. It's not quite (and never will be) something that levels the playing field with someone like you who is very technical, but the number of semantic agents, vibe coding, and AI-enabling tools is very democratizing. There are very few real transformational periods to live through. PC revolution and mobile were obviously in our lifetime. AI is happening now and it's messy and painful but also beautiful and glorious.
  2. What do you mean a teenager never has a job? Do you think that AI is going to render teenager jobs and summer jobs useless? The reason I think relaxing regulation on AI in the storming, norming and forming phase of AI going from hype cycle to mature is because that is how technology, historically, gets to an optimal state of value. The invisible hand of capitalism will have influence as well. AI and tech supremacy can be argued as a zero sum game. And if we (over)regulate today, there is real risk of losing the AI race to countries who won't (e.g. China, India, EU, Israel, etc.). To deny regulation hampers competitiveness is to deny the very "just the facts ma'am" type reality and pragmatism you claim to be serving in your AI doom.
  3. ChatGPT is the bare minimum. For whatever role you have there are now fit-for-purpose AI tools to help up. There is a funny meme out there of the YC slides "Cursor for [enter your department/vertical]"
  4. I'm actually not sure where I stand on the regulation stuff yet. The bill as I understand it is banning a patchwork of regulations via state laws. And even then states could enforce their own AI regulation, they just would be locked out of some AI funding and otehr stuff, right?
  5. It's one voice. And if it becomes the reality then it goes against everything we've ever seen or known in the history of technology in the world. Statistically so improbable it's completely irrational to use that as a buttress for your belief and worldview IMO. The story of technology going back into forever (since literally dawn of man) is that OF COURSE technology displaces jobs, but the history of all of humanity is we find new things to do pretty effectively. Even Brisket. And especially Brisket's children and their children.
  6. Do you believe, to the detriment of demonstrable reality and facts and history, every provocative thing you hear? In just the recent past we have had customers claim they are going to get rid of people and use AI and completely walk that back. The obvious reality is that yes, of course there will be some human labor diminshed and savings involved with using AI. Story as old as time. But with new business and tech shifts, new business models and human working models will arise.
  7. You should really use a more fit-for-purpose AI tool than a general LLM like ChatGPT. Use MidJourney and narrow in on the prompting and you'd get something super fantastic is my guess.
  8. I get why people are AI doomers, but I think this is extremely short-sighted, myopic and even a bit silly. Technological paradigm shifts are scary when you are 58 years old like we are. But the world is not ending and things will shake out and new technology and business norms will eventually become...normal and boring. Like you using a macbook and lexus nexus and doing discovery via e-filing or whatever in your day to day life versus paper and pen. You sound a lot like the draftsman who bemoaned how 3 floors of hundreds of manual drafting drawers with a great degree and skill and healthy income were thrown out for one guy to do CAD. Or the thousands of bookkeepers and manual recorders organizations employed who with an upper middle class life were eliminated overnight with the advents of ERPs. Life will go on and new avenues will open. The only thing that makes this unique is the speed at which the transition is happening because AI seemingly popped overnight in 2022 and disruption is happening across the board at the same time.
  9. That was rock bottom. There is only up from there.
  10. Just read the article. What jumps out to me is this: A) "We know that social inequality and hierarchy was central to society" B) "However, we've found some ancient ruins that suggest an alternative egalitarian set up" This reads to me like if in the future archeologists said, "Listen we know America 4000 years ago was very stratified and oligarchical and increasingly fascist and there was great income and life inequality, but based on us digging up the spiritual camp and hippie commune in the desert outside of Bakersfield, maybe they were actually not this way!" We digress...
  11. This was my point. And there is a difference between mere existence and executing and being effective.
  12. This implies caste systems and haves and have nots, does it not?
  13. The very fundamental precept of market economics is that resources are limited and human desires are unlimited. I think we are both saying the same thing. And I would guess we both agree that late stage capitalism needs to be tore down for anything to change. We live in a framework and methodology problem because I think it's been proven since time immemorial that human beings don't do behavior modification and long term behavior change. We need to be fenced.
  14. So are we getting medicinal flower?!
  15. Thought this was an interesting thought about computers: Will aliens have computers? Deutsch’s question (Is there a (single) universal computing device which can efficiently simulate any other physical system?) is a simple, fundamental question about the nature of the universe. It’s the kind of question which alien counterparts to Deutsch could plausibly come to ponder. And the alien civilizations of which they are a part would then be led inexorably to invent computers. In this sense, computers aren’t just human inventions. They are a fundamental feature of the universe, the answer to a simple and profound question about how the universe works. And they have likely been discovered over and over again by many alien intelligences.
  16. I don't know, maybe. Feels like you are giving a synopsis that is is not deep enough to be all the way accurate.
  17. Not only is it still a world of scarcity, but it's about to get a lot more scarce when AI's appetite is full grown. That's the whole other thread though.
  18. These terrorists groups don't exist without resources; money, munitions, and political cover. Iran gave them these in spades. Alone without Iran these groups are but sparks and flames. Iran was the immense oxygen that fanned the flames.
  19. I'm on record as saying I believe we have trended back to a "might is right" global governance, having moved away from multi-cultural and globalist alignments. I have no problem assigning the label bully to "America" as well. I think the difference is America will talk the talk and walk the walk. Bullies like Iran will talk the talk and....well...it didn't end well for them. They have the spirit and the chutzpah but they don't have the resources and talent. Not a blue blood.
  20. YOu mention live action, it's the live action how to train a dragon movie that won the week/end for the second week in a row. That's the weird thing. That a) a live action movie that's not a disney property did well and resonated with audiences who are over live actions and b) that a pixar film couldn't win the weekend of it's debut against older runs. And some of the marketing budget had to be there, I can't imagine Happy Meal tie-ins are cheap. I realize they aren't the gold standard that they used to be in the 80's and 90's, but it's definitely something.
  21. Because we live in a world of scarcity and vie for the same resources and our competition uses a fundementally similiar tactic (e.g. an overarching worldview) but in super different deployments and use cases.
  22. All fair questions and like with most things, time will tell. I'm especially curious to see whomever reports the most factual, assured, audited report of the real effects and destruction of the bombing. That will determine for me if all this squeeze was worth any juice.
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