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Vegas64

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Everything posted by Vegas64

  1. No? I don't think so at least.
  2. It's a good discussion and you might be completely right and you sound like you have a unique and lived perspective. Let me say that before I respectfully push back on a few things: 1) Power build outs (energy generation) is absolutely happening and in full focus. From coal being en vogue again to small (and large) nuclear research and innovation and MOU's and JV's and acquisitions from the likes of the hyperscalers and Meta to legacy utilities pumping out more via renewables, coal, whatever (and we are all subsidizing AI btw with higher energy costs that is peanut buttered to our residential bills, don't believe me go check and do YoY compares). Everyone recognizes that building out power generation is fundamental and is everyone's primary focus (it's the primary bottleneck when you extrapolate out and it's not a secret). 2) Ironically enough I've read if it wasn't for crypto and specifically bitcoin we'd be even more behind on understanding and operationalizing power buildouts for AI as you described it. BTC miners were positioned perfectly as they had long term (cheap) power contracts, had land and power and access to the gw that are today scarce (saw NRG, shout out to the Houston Texans, did a deal to acquire 12 gbs which literally doubled their stock if you look at the last few years). From what I understand that's exactly what CoreWeave did as a pivot. 3) From what I understand we are just now scaling the Grace Blackwell era. Given time (I'm talking 10 years not 2) GPUs will become a commodity as all new technology eventually becomes in time.
  3. There is an interesting book that was published last year called BOOM if anyone cares to read more about productive bubbles (or just search productive bubbles and lots of examples will be summarized via AI for you):
  4. I said this previously and I believe it still; the companies who will thrive in the AI era of industrialization and society haven't even incorporated yet. You and I (heck, PM me) could be sitting on a unicorn idea that just needs to be operationalized once the chessboard has been set and all the pieces have been captured (via the incoming AI bust). That's all fair, except to say I don't see a world where nvidia, openai, oracle (and gemini/google, anthropic, microsoft, meta, etc.) don't exist as trillion dollar organizations EVEN WHEN (not if, but when) a lot of the unicorn and decacorn AI startups got belly-up. It's a bubble, but a productive bubble. It's a bubble that is building out the infrastructure that will outlast all the froth. Like railroads before it or paving of streets, the future highway that everyone will use to create and make economic upside in and with AI will be done off the back of the bubble infrastructure of 1) power build out 2) data center build outs and 3) GPU creations (that will get cheaper and cheaper and cheaper and cheaper, etc.) This is all my opinion, at least.
  5. This. I'm actually really surprised and maybe need to reflect. I was following this late into the night and thought it was a HUGE deal with massive implications and newsworthiness, but there has been little to no discussion. Is everyone just like "ive seen this movie before" and assume Israel is lying or gonna backbite on this? Or is it because it was Trump who was the catalyst that it's distasteful?
  6. I don't think this technology will be free until it's cheap to make. From an interview with Sam Altman (for those who don't know, Sora is an OpenAI product:
  7. Plano tax is going up (property tax), but after years of trying to keep it from growing. Wonder if it's like that with Austin, can't help it.
  8. I'm not sure Oracle is a great example though (and their stock is down like 7 or 8% last I saw): From The Information: https://www.theinformation.com/articles/internal-oracle-data-show-financial-challenge-renting-nvidia-chips
  9. I hear you and could be swayed to your way of thinking but I think the difference this time is the level of exposure and visibility that the last 2 years has given the world, especially the West/US. A lot of pundits thought that actually Hamas plan was to provoke Israel into atrocity to expose Israel for what they wouldn't be able to help themselves from doing, which is give into their base desire to exterminate Hamas and displace Palestinians and own the entire territory. I think there has been way too much awareness now that didn't exist-- especially to the layman who frankly didn't care about the Palestinian plight 2 years ago-- to be able to revert back to pre-10/7 behavior with Palestine now without the justification of "war" anymore. Israel painted them into that corner if what I posit is true.
  10. Well, for one, from what I've read (and it could be wrong of course) that Bibi overstepped and made an error in his bombing of Qatar (which we all called a strategic blunder at the time except one guy here whose name I don't recall but who was clearly wrong). This got him on the wrong side of what little, albeit powerful, allies he had left and forced him into a real isolated place to where this peace actually happens because of that error. Had he not made it, he might still be out there being headstrong with tacit support. That said, I think that his keeping the peace is actually how he keeps the powerful tacit allies in his camp (US of A) which actually does keep him out prison and away from death a minimum. Now, the calculus changes for him in 2028 when the adminsitration changes (if it does) and all bets are off....
  11. AMD will be a trillion dollar company-- why not?
  12. Not much shocks me but I would be absolutely shocked if that happened. Israel would have burned bridges and that's very foolhardy and shortsighted. I think that would be insane behavior by Israel from a nation state even looking out for their own benefits in the short and medium term... Now.....I can see some other "provocation" which will "demand" an Israel response to re-engage at some point in the (not near) future to "finish the job", ranging from the justified response (e.g. a 10/7 like attack) to the thinnest rationalization, but even then I don't think it's all that likely.
  13. I'm almost 100% certain the only reason Trump wanted peace and put the pressure to get it done was to get that ego stroking of a desk tchotchke (in his view and pardon the yiddish slang).
  14. With peace and the end of the war Bibi is about to have face his own issues he's been putting off (a corruption trial? having to speak to Israel's intelligence and security lapses that allowed 10/7 to even happen, having to take accountability for atrocity) and then, boom, election will be here before you know it! The big question I'm still waiting on hearing (well, there is two) but what about Hamas? We all agree they are the worst. Do we allow the Hamas peons to disband and be reconstructed to Palestine regulars while still finding and executing the remaining Hamas OG's who did 10/7? The biggest question to me I'm super curious about: Will Trump get a Nobel Peace Prize. I saw that a Nobel Peace Prize gets announced tomorrow at like 5am EST. Even if you WANTED to give it to him, is it too late to pivot from whomever the committee had decided upon before yesterday? Would the meltdown from people and the collective crashing out if he got it be worth it in the blowback from the committee and international community?
  15. I got an early invite for sora 2 and been playing with it for a week or so now and can attest it's pure AI slop and silliness that doesn't seem to serve a purpose right now outside of the lulz amongst friends. I get why it's invite only right now because the gpu's and electricity to create foolishness is not defensible right now from a cost or monetization route.
  16. Next year’s WNBA season could get delayed or canceled if there’s no deal by Halloween. Adam Silver, commissioner of the NBA (which oversees the WNBA), said earlier this week that he’s confident an agreement will be reached.
  17. In-n-Out vs Whataburger in the finals for me. Which checks out to the cultural argument, I guess.
  18. you are responsible for literally my two favorite posts on surly ever, the last two days. Thanks for bringing some joy to this old dog's heart.
  19. I mean, you want the “true believer who won’t do politics and put up with the BS”. Actually, if you are talking about democracy / representative democracy and the ideal purpose and application, “crazy” might actually be what you want if it’s the will of the people to vote and elect “crazy”, so long as the “crazy” is always and was always transparent and authentic. Remaining “crazy” might actually be the most honest outcome in the sense of what Bozo was saying.
  20. @sidis can we get a musical breakdown (similar to your exegesis on the mo bamba thread) on how Mr. bright side became a stadium staple at sports events?
  21. Which really if you think about it is what you want in a representative. Good bad or indifferent, there is an integrity and honesty in having a POV and being ride or die with it and not weaseling and opportunistically dancing as the drums switch beats.
  22. It does feel like the bubble is bubbling in this report.
  23. It feels like Israel is finally backed into it and it would be a precarious situation for them to go against their own, and their allies and the west who are urging them behind the scenes, to go ain’t their own word and plan. And Trump sees this as his moment and he’s not going to happy and keep pressure on.
  24. I think that's the fallacy. Visiting and vacationing and even a longer term sabbatical, you can romanticize the life. But having to live with standardized medicine (especially if you have a chronic or serious disease or illness) and the day to day isn't for the faint of heart (for most Americans). And I agree, I have an American bias to what you called out. I'm an unabahsed capitalist, I guess, from years of indonctrination and the guise of value creation that has allowed me to build a little bit of wealth. So I think of Europe as inferior in a lot of ways:
  25. I wonder if these are retail apes (dumb) or sharps (smart): A perspective of shut downs:
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