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Fico

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Fico

  1. Allegedly removed minefields among other activities to kickoff the southern front. The only substantial Russian gains have come from Ukrainian treason not Russian military success. Fired his buddy, the head of the SBU, for not cleaning up the service.
  2. Dmitri does awesome work and nice humble brag semi from that NLAW.
  3. And Belarusians, Uzbeks, Kazaks, Georgians, Estonians, Latvians, Lithuanians, etc.
  4. In my amateur opinion, mostly SAMs plus proliferation of stand off weapons and general Russian lack of giving a shit about accuracy contributing to lack of russian air. Additionally, the longer the war the higher the number of complex Russian assets down for maintenance. I know it's been said many times, but the Ukr Air Force still operating is incredible. Yesterday SU-29 taking down a cruise missile was great to see. Their distributed operations, maintenance teams, logistics, etc deserves tons of appreciation and study post war. I am not so sure Putin can use the tired and true war of attrition, specifically with manpower. Most reports I've seen have the Ukrainians with a larger standing army in the war than the Russians. Russia moved to a command style war economy this week and using financial incentives/PMCs for shadow mobilization. The Russian advantage in artillery, both in systems and ammunition, is their primary means of advance. Someone correct me if I am wrong, but the Russians still have enormous amounts of both, their weakness is the logistics.
  5. Shit. We all would have bullets in the back of the head if we were in occupied Ukraine. Even worse, they would make someone like stoops the puppet mayor.
  6. I agree, I don't think it will change much if anything on the ground. Talking heads will make a bigger deal out of it more than anything. I could still see the Germans supporting Ukraine, just more low-key.
  7. I have a feeling the Germans are going to cave at some point. It will be interesting in 10-12 days once the planned annual maintenance is complete.
  8. All of that. Ukraine has the manpower and drive, hopefully we see more camps springing up like the Paras are running.
  9. To be fair, so did a large majority of Europeans.
  10. Better video: Talk it may have been an AA site:
  11. Common practice in damn near every "DUI" arrest/pullover/suspected. At least in Austin, Judges sit on call for this and they get that sample one way or another.
  12. Looks like a regular helmet? vs the tankie foam aerodynamic skull cap?
  13. Catching flying turrets is not recommended.
  14. I am by no means any kind of expert, aren't Iran's drones fairly capable? Possible it may be overestimates similar to pre-war Russian systems but they have had a fair amount of practice in the ME. Does this push the Israelis to step up support of Ukraine from protective gear to defensive weapons? Iron dome? Israel so far has refused but after (Lavrov?) blaming the Jews for the Holocaust and buying Iranian drones. Or is Israel protecting their tech from falling into foreign hands?
  15. I am loving the HIMARS action and not at all trying taking away from that, but I think the best/most important news of the last ~10 days is the UK fully training up 10,000 new Ukrainian troops. And I think I saw they are fully equipping them as well. Hopefully more NATO allies roll out similar programs so when the time comes, Ukraine will be ready to execute full combined arms operations and roll the orcs up.
  16. Agree and that's a full industrial war. Hopefully the munition factories have already been ramping up.
  17. Just finished Perun's new video. As always he does some great analysis. Interesting point he made was Russians brag how many shells they fire a day, even though we know that's due to accuracy and ISR problems, leading to barrels burning out faster. Seeing other Russian/Soviet systems, I doubt they have highly proficient way for barrel replacement and regular maintenance on the pieces.
  18. Was coming to add Kofman and Meduza is excellent. If you interested into getting some background on the Russian military before the conflict Kofman has some great lectures on YouTube about Russian attempts at modernization and reorganization. He also does a (sometimes) weekly podcast on War on the Rocks and some Sundays with Dmitri Alperovitch, including last night: Have we mentioned bellingcat? They are incredibly good investigative journalists that really go deep to call out Russian bullshit about all kinds of shit including assignations, MH17, fraud, etc. They are prominent in the HBO show on Navaly.
  19. Start putting a dent in those cruise missiles too. Don't believe either government but the OSINT community is pretty good at calling out bullshit fairly quickly. All that said, still a lot of fog of war.
  20. I think Melnyk was pretty controversial but no idea on the others.
  21. Ties in with them matching specific oblasts to regions/cities in occupied territory but having the local party instead from the whole region is hilarious bullshit. Like they need to actually promote the party.
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