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troph

Certifiably Surly
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Posts posted by troph

  1. 1 hour ago, burnt beanz said:

    I like how you say it’s not a red team blue team issue but your solution is raise taxes and cut defense spending. 😝 Please get serious. 

    The solution is cut all spending. But that is too painful so it will never happen. Nothing stops this train. Protect yourself how you see fit. 

    Ok, let’s phase out SS benefits entirely for the wealthy. There … cut entitlements, cut defense smartly (war is changing we can spend less and more strategically and still remain the strongman), raise taxes on the wealthy, remove the SS cap, etc etc. 

    all of the above.

    any attempt to cut expenses as the way out of this simply won’t work. It especially won’t work if defense isn’t on the chopping block.

    raise revenue, cut the largest two budget categories, and do so in a way that doesn’t leave the poorest who need entitlements the most hungry and destitute. 

    math isn’t red or blue, it’s just facts.

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  2. 2 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

    The only way to deal with the debt problem, besides the actions Brisket listed is to inflate away the debt over 10-15 years. To do that requires inflation to run ~3+ percent annually over that period, just like after WW2. So Powell will get replaced, the new Fed will drop rates low, inflation will creep up to 3-3.5, everyone will complain, but the politicians will secretly be happy with it. Middle class and the poor will get hit the hardest and the wealthier will hardly notice because they control so much of the world’s wealth now they can buy anything they want 10x over. 

    doesn't sound like a red team blue team issue.  i hear you, but the right answer is raise taxes significantly, cut defense spending.  

    better get all your money into equities, it will be the only inflation protection available.  value of cash will erode while you watch.

  3. On 6/24/2025 at 6:52 AM, Dbeasy said:

    This is an interesting and scary outlook on the U.S. debt and it's impact on interest rates and inflation. And just to be clear, the current Republican administration, and the Democrat administration before it, implemented and are implementing disastrous fiscal policies to address the issue effectively. We as citizens have got to get off team Red and team Blue and force our politicians to get on team America. 

    Raise taxes (LTCG, ordinary income, dividends, etc), eliminate the SS cap and stop looting programs for the wealthy.  Get defense spending in line, strategic but not bloated. Problem solved. 

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  4. So I skipped the risqué photos and went to chatGPT 4.0 and asked it to build me a stock watch list, with relevant news, performance fundamentals and technical analysis with buy hold sell advice based on my investment thesis. I spent much of the weekend deep diving into my investment thesis, locating stocks, understanding the various companies business and performance and on and on.  
     

    I discovered several mistakes, not shocking, but the funny part was I asked it to prepare reports, organize the information, and even automate a weekly update and summary for a Monday morning 15 min read. 

    It said it was working on it, and when I would ask for an update the response was I’m working on it, it’s taking time to build this complex tool and that I’m awesome, super smart and building something spectacular that some companies hire teams to do. It would tell me things like it’s almost done just checking for consistency blah blah blah. Then it would say it needs 6 more hours, 24 more hours, 48 hours. The bitch ghosted me. 

    so now I know it can be sloppy with facts, it can flat out lie and use flattery to cover it up, it will refuse to do something without telling me it is refusing to do it, what else…? Kinda human like now that you think about it. 

    for now I use it to gather information give easy recommendations that I then use as a base case and go vet on my own with additional study. Basically it can do what a first year grad employee might be able to do in bite sized chunks. The rest of the research and judgment is up to me.

    the good news though is that I am still using my analytical skills, maybe even more now in this corner of my world than before.

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  5. 9 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

    After a modicum of thought, I’m leaning towards the opinion that if we really did obliterate the site, even if the uranium wasn’t there and there are sites elsewhere ready to be spun up, shouldn’t we release our evidence and brag on our capability?  
     

    Is there a downside?  Images of the site, whatever we have that everyone knows we have. 
     

    the b2 is a known entity, the only thing that would change is the weight capacity floor goes up. Ok. The range is still unknown without the refueling details. The ordinance is known but untested in real world situations. If it worked, let’s advertise that fact. 
     

    If we can really prove what he is claiming, shouldn’t we?

    that's what some prior admins would have done. maybe not all.

  6. how can anyone think this is how this shit should go, for reals. debate the decision, okay. debate the efficacy of the mission, ok. did it work or not? that's just facts. no we can't have normal discourse, we have a fucking lunch room food fight.  can we has real intel people talking at podiums who are just telling the shit that went down and what's next or not next or what can or can't be talked about please. pretty please, with whipped cream on top?  for the love of christ, moses and muhammad, this nana nana boo boo shit is fucking dumb. 

     

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  7. 27 minutes ago, Goredho said:

    There are really two things being discussed here.

    1.  Damage to Iran's nuclear weapons program and how far back they have been set
    2.  Our President's wish-casting assertion that the damage was complete and total before any such assessment could have been made.

    You can hope the answer to #1 is "complete and total" while also feeling like #2 is stupid, not in anyone's best interests and quite possibly dangerous.  I mean, the Ocean's Gate CEO certainly assured everyone that his sub's carbon fiber hull was da bomb, people took him at his word and there was no harm from his bullshit... until it imploded at a depth of 4000 meters.

    That's where I'm at.   I sincerely hope the President is right.  It's in our best interests that he is.  Because if he's not, and we wind up conducting ourselves as if Iran's nuclear program has been obliterated when they have in fact escaped that fate, then we certainly are not safer than we were a week ago.

    I hope it's complete and total too even though I wish the agreement with Iran wasn't torn up 8 or 9 years ago.  the wish casting is fucked up, makes it really hard to know wtf is going on and breeds the lack of transparency that really doesn't help anyone here.

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  8. On 5/6/2025 at 7:52 AM, immamac said:

    I was only half kidding with my comment earlier. 

    These look interesting, but I wonder about the cost economics. 

    30k for 250 gallons a day and let's call it 1KWh per gallon in electricity to produce (per tech spec sheet @ 240Wh/liter) avg electric cost in Texas is $.15 per KWh that's $37.50 a day in electricity for 250 gallons of water. 

    So if you had a family of 4 and used 3,000 gallons of water a month it would cost nearly $450/mo in electricity plus the amortized cost of the unit, let's say they gave you a 12% loan for 15 years (co term with warranty period) that's $360/mo

    So for $900/mo you could have less water than a normal family of 4 is budgeted to use daily. 

    I must be missing something, because 1k/mo buys a fuckton of water from a truck + a tank to put it in. 

     

    These economics make our water cistern boondoggle look almost rational. Almost. 

  9. I nixed quince last night on the theory that places with great views rely on the view - not the food - to sell.  Glad to hear I wasn’t wrong. 

    we have another ex pat dinner party tonight not sure where but we will check out Tostevere before we leave. 

    more work 930-4 for me, kids Spanish immersion today. 

  10. Spent the morning on Monday scoping out the meat and produce markets, tortillas too. Found a gym near us and signed up for a month membership, decent pizza joint down the street. Going to find a massage therapist tomorrow - I have one I think.

    wifey is playing pickleball tomorrow, she’s found a tennis hook up (I’m taking a few weeks off to heal tennis specific ailments). Clay courts so that’s fun and good on our joints.

    tonight we walked from our neighborhood to el centro -  about a mile - and saw a classical guitarist, about 20 attendees, gringos and Mexicans. He’s highly touted and he was fantastic. Met up with the wife who was at Berlin Bar & Bistro talking up a Mississippi gay man about rainbow culture here. I think the pride parade is our last weekend here. Going to try and make a drag bingo too. 

    a few pics from today…

     

     

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  11. 7 minutes ago, royiv said:

    That looks like a sweet villa.

    It’s fucking dope. 3 large bedrooms with private baths. Base for 3 weeks and I’m working 10-5pm ATX time (9-4pm here) so the pad has to be on the mark. 

    second floor balcony during the rain… (there’s a floor higher than this).

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