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Posted
1 hour ago, Sir Ulrich said:

3 of our 4 road games in the SEC were against teams that will be a combined 5-19.

At the end of the 4th quarter we had a lead in 0 of those games. 

That’s wonderful.  That particular statement was not limited to SEC games.  Throw in a road game against Ohio State.  Throw in a neutral site versus OU.  That 4th road game was against another top 5 team.  I guess your implication is correct.  50% of our non-home games against top 10 teams is typical, and we should only play top 25 teams on the road.

Go ahead and tell me how we had a bye leading into UF but ignore the fact that Kentucky had a bye, that it was homecoming, that it was at night, that they never led the game, or that we were coming off the OU game.  Ignore the thought that OU had a de facto bye leading up to our game.  

Oh by the way, our 29 point lead versus Arkansas was the most of any SEC team against them.  Our 21 point lead versus Vandy is their largest deficit of the season.  Ironic they were both home games.  And in spite of OU not needing to focus on Kent State, their 17 point deficit to us - also their largest of the season.

The season is a grind whether you are in the SEC or not.  No team gets up or plays their best every week.  More games away from home.  Length of time away from home.  The more games you have requiring maximum intensity.  All those things make the grind more difficult.  This team will have had more of that shit than anyone.

  • Hook 'Em 2
Posted
2 hours ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Texas is going over a 2 loss Utah. Miami isnt gonna make it unless they win the conference. SC is a non factor. Michigan will lose to OSU. Vandy will lose to Tenn (and shouldnt be ahead of us anyways if we beat aggy). If OU or Bama slip up, it will be a beauty contest between 2 loss BYU and 3 loss Texas, if we get left out over those Mormon clowns who lost the only two real games they play all year against TTU. Then we absofuckinglutely should cancel all preseason games against OSU/ND and the likes. No point to play them. 

When the chips are on the table and all cards are played and it’s a clear Texas with 3 losses or BYU with 2 then I could agree with your premise though we don’t know if the committee wants conference diversity in which case the distinction may be 5-6 from the SEC is too many. But yeah in that scenario you really have to start asking questions. 

First post I’ve seen that makes me pause. I hope we get that stark of an answer. 

  • Hook 'Em 2
Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, DFW Horn said:

Our biggest problem is that we've got too many 1 and 2-loss SEC teams in line ahead of us. Sure, you can argue we've played a more challenging schedule and that our resume is better, but.....

 

And yet it could easily end this way in conference...plug in a Texas win and all the favorites

https://bball.notnothing.net/bracket_cloud.php?conf=secfb

 

Edited by SaucyJack
Posted
3 hours ago, Alien Octopus said:

Actually,  no,  my argument makes perfect sense. This has nothing to do with Bama and OU. Ou lost to Texas, they should be bookended so as long as the discussion is who is getting in at large. Bama is playing for a bye, and the SEC Championship. Texas is not, neither is OU, neither is Vandy.  
Texas is playing for an at large, just like OU and Vandy. Both of which, Texas skull fucked on the field. Neither should be ranked above us.  They should be behind us in the ranking.

Even if OU wins on the road against Bama and Tenn are some how magically  more magnificent, they still got handled by Texas and are inferior, not by eye test, not by supposed sos (they aren't) not by quality wins. They lost to Texas. It is simple, linear logic. The mental gymnastics needed to get around the head to head loss is not circular logic it is contortionistic, intergalactic, species jumping, unadulterated horseshit.  

Doesn’t make this not begging the question

Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

It was 14-10 in the 4th quarter despite a criminal amount of ref fuckery. Yes, the final scoreline was a blowout,

Our coach completely shit the bed. It was a blowout. 

Edited by Tex Pete
Posted
12 hours ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

They arent, this is the exact same team as last year, they just didnt choke to Auburn/SC/and ND this year. The team last year couldve easily had no losses going into the game against us. This year that is the case but our offense is rolling at the exact right time and this defense knows how to handle Reed, we made him 1 dimensional last year. 

Texas 35 - Aggy 17

The stuff at the margins is the difference. Other than their offense, which has massively improved (even adjusted for opponents). 

For Auburn and SC, playing at home versus on the road at night. That's huge.

Second, another year of Elko and co has improved their marginal performance on little things, especially on defensive execution level. Awareness, ball leverage, confidence and ability to hold/interfere without calls. 

Third, the portal additions at WR, and production from Conception at returner, has been a more than marginal improvement. This combined with more experience from Reed and Klein adding more of the old KSU RPO and dangerous spread/run/option attack, gives them a clear identity and allows all 11 to play more confident. On a down to down basis they have definitely leveled up on offense. 

So you have one loss swing, even though on the road to ND, with a more experienced QB, more confident and explosive offense and ND having early season Chris Ash defensive struggles. 

The second and third loss swings come from playing Auburn and South Carolina both at home, a more experienced QB, much better WR production, and maybe a slightly improved return threat on ST. But both were still very, very close. 

In addition, you had the fact that Auburn was possibly the sloppiest, worst coached talented I have ever seen play and South Carolina took a huge step down in all phases, namely on their offense.

Aggie in FEI this year vs. last year heading into Texas game: 

Last year:

Overall FEI .70 (19th)

Offense: .22 (28th)

Defense: .41 (23rd)

ST: .09 (16th)

This year: 

Overall FEI 1.18 (10th)

Offense: .60 (10th)

Defense: .56 (16th)

ST: .05 (39th)

For comparison here in Texas: 

Overall FEI This year .84 (21st) Last year 1.33 (2nd)

Offense this year: .18 (36th) Last year .40 (14th)

Defense this year: .57 (13th) Last year .85 (2nd)

ST this year: .12 (11th) Last year .07 (24th)

The other big thing is the relative strength of their opponents this year. 

Last year Aggies finished with FEI's 17-19th highest SOS from their two advanced measures: 2.08 expected losses for a team 2-standard deviations better than average would fare against their schedule, and (17th best) 5.33 expected wins from a team one-standard deviation better than the average team against their opponents. 

This year so far, their schedule ranks far weaker: 1.5 expected losses from 2-deviation team (32nd) and 4.28 losses from a 1-deviation team (23rd)

For comparison, here is Texas this year: 2.53 expected losses from 2-deviation team (7th) and 4.88 from a 1-deviation team (12th)

In conclusion: A&M is a slightly better defense, namely more cohesive on third down and playing with more confidence (some mainly at home in key spots) in second year under a good defensive coach

They are much, much better on offense. Second year QB, leveled up WRs, Klein feeling more comfortable and having an identity. 

Yet, their schedule, and home vs road compared to last year have been huge factors in making the most out of those improvements. 

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