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troph

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by troph

  1. We got caught in a minor flood of the fields at camp Mabry once as kids at a jamboree. Problem was it was near freezing and so when our tent flooded frost bite became a real issue. Older scouts climbed into the troop storage trailer and locked out the younger ones. Luckily a few dads showed up with cars and trucks and let us young pups dry off and sit in the heater. I’ll never forget knocking on the trailer door and some 16 year old assholes said go away. Fuck bullies in their goat ass. I swear we sat in the car for hours trying to warm our toes up. That was like 2-3 inches I’m sure.
  2. No apology needed. I don’t have people close to me but it still hits hard and some of us cope by getting angry. I’m fucking livid at local officials and camp management. I’ll stop short of going on the rant I want to - maybe it’s my lawyer brain - but I always worry about worst case. Man I want to go off but I’m also going to stop now.
  3. You only need 4+ inches to cause flooding. It’s not like you wait until it’s 10+ inches to act especially when you are close to a creek or river. Shit I grew up watching brushy creek flood on just a few inches of rain. It doesn’t take much at all.
  4. People don’t appreciate the risk. Too many watches and warnings that don’t materialize. Waiting for the warning that’s right on top of them. Assuming since it hasn’t happen to them yet it won’t this time either. Same issue with wildfires, hurricanes, tornadoes, etc. better to be wrong and prepared 99 times out of 100 so that 1 time you’re safe. That’s how weather professionals approach it and we FAFO and blame them. Nah man, you prepare every time.
  5. That’s true but if you are in a flood prone area and a rain event can flood you take it seriously…. Every time. My kids are so annoyed with how often I make them prep the porches and non-garaged cars when there is risk of hail. It’s what you do when the watches and warnings occur. Degrees of flooding are for those far away from the impact zone. Human behavior (all of us) is way to prone to think it won’t happen to me. Sorry but if you’re next to a river that massively floods once a decade and can moderately flood more often than that then you take every watch and warning seriously. There was enough - not bullseye accurate - not to the areas or the amounts - but enough to be vigilant. Problem is we humans think we are above the laws of nature not subordinate to them. It costs us everytime.
  6. Failure to pay attention and failure to communicate. We get so many weather warnings and so there’s an inadvertent “the meteorologist who cried wolf” phenomenon but we need to pay attention to all of them because one of them will be the one.
  7. There was a lot of chatter, a lot of noise. No CR but we are all going to have to be more flexible re forecast interpretations.
  8. Barry was yucutan but honestly it acted like the pacific storms how it ended up west of Austin before it unleashed the rains. It was also crazy how the Mexican mountains ripped it to shreds but then it regained some circulation once it cleared into south Texas.
  9. After last night I can see over 20 feet rise, early projections were 10 feet over a few days. I thought that was low, every basin had a river at or above flood stage. 2018 it was llano only (blanco too outside LCRA watersheds). This time it’s San Saba, llano, perd, now Hamilton creek and big sandy creek are flowing 50,000 CFS up from ZERO. And of course guad outside LCRA watersheds.
  10. They’ve said they have no intention of opening Mansfield for flood control at this time. The plan is for LT to catch it all south of Buchanan. Last night’s rain probably won’t change that. 2018 floods rose 25 feet in a day to fill the lake but now we are (were) 40 feet below full so plenty of flood catching capacity.
  11. Holy shit lake Travis is up 10 feet over night.
  12. Man this thing keeps dumping water now the last 24 hours over the north side of lake Travis. Wow. flood risk ain’t over yet folks.
  13. We are in Mexico so I was only tangentially following, I don’t recall 15 inches of rain forecasted but I do recall seeing rainfall could be impressive and anything above 3-4 inches can cause dangerous flooding. If that potential is in the area and you live close to a hill country river or a creek then you need to be on alert. I think it was a mix of the forecast wasn’t 100% (never is), it won’t happen to us, it’s July and weather risk is limited to heat injury only, the flooding risk materialized over night, and just plain not paying attention were the cause. I read earlier that while not unique in flash flooding, the Texas hill country has some of the highest fatality rates of flash flooding in the country.
  14. Dogs are smart but they ain’t surly 1% smart
  15. Yeah im about to bow out here I can’t deal with a parade of pictures of dead baby girls. I know it happened but fuck man. Ugh.
  16. Had a long conversation with my sons today about the importance of knowing the weather at all times, know what the vulnerabilities are where you live or are staying, and to never underestimate nature’s force.
  17. https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=27.82,-97.183,6z interesting radar track of Barry, thing disintegrated in northern Mexico, crossed the border and seemed to almost reorganize some. Kinda wicked.
  18. I was paying attention. I’ve also stopped wishing for tropical storms to fill the lakes. It fucking kills.
  19. Comms weren’t good enough.
  20. I can’t even. In July. Not a drop of rain is supposed to fall let alone a fucking life threatening flood. So ill. Ugh.
  21. Rain totals over the last 30 days. 28 inches holy shit.
  22. These mother fuckers need to leave god out of it, babies died. Either he doesn’t exist or he’s a piece of shit
  23. fuck it be nevermind
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