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VolenteHawk

MLB Betting 2019

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Didn't see a thread.  Finally have had a chance to do some homework on lines the last week or so.  Baseball is getting very hard to beat, so I'll start with pizza money...

Detroit +127 tonight, plus money with a slight advantage in the pitching matchup.

 

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I've been paying less attention to the starting pitchers because of the way the game has evolved.  Obviously when there's an "opener" that changes things but also, with very few exceptions, starters seem to be going fewer and fewer innings.  I rarely bet a bad team with a good starter, e.g. Bumgarner.  I haven't watched enough this year to know in detail, who's got a good bullpen and who doesn't, but by this time of the year, the better teams must have decent bullpens.  I stick with good teams vs bad and follow series, regardless of who's starting.    End up betting a lot of faves that way.

For example, AZ beat Philly at Philly last night.  Philly is the better team, at home, I expect them to win this series, so I'm going Philly -130 tonight, despite Arrieta having a 1.43 WHIP.  In previous years, I would rarely bet on a starter with a WHIP that high, even a seasoned, successful vet like Arrieta.

Similarly, I don't see a lousy team like LAA taking two from LAD, so I'm going LAD -160.

I also like TB -155.  They were flying under the radar some but the lines have adjusted I think.  Same with Min.  Can't go Min tonight, odds are just too high at -190.

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10 hours ago, VolenteHawk said:

Detroit +127 tonight, plus money with a slight advantage in the pitching matchup.

Turnbull yanked after 96 in 6, pen immediately fucks you. 

 

9 hours ago, shakahorn said:

Similarly, I don't see a lousy team like LAA taking two from LAD, so I'm going LAD -160.

I also like TB -155.  They were flying under the radar some but the lines have adjusted I think.  Same with Min.  Can't go Min tonight, odds are just too high at -190.

Maeda gets bombed in the first, LAA's pen barely holds on. 

Pagan fucks the Tampa game, Minn beats up on Sea's pen. 

 

Baseball, man. 

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6 hours ago, spystud13 said:

Turnbull yanked after 96 in 6, pen immediately fucks you. 

Sucks to lose that way, but I’ll take all the coin flip games I can get for plus money. Will dig into the lines a little more later this morning. Reds look interesting-ish at first glance.

 

 

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11 hours ago, spystud13 said:

Maeda gets bombed in the first, LAA's pen barely holds on. 

...

Baseball, man. 

Maeda looks super sharp, gives up homer to Ohtani on the same pitch he just struck out Trout looking.  Falls apart.

Baseball, man.

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6 hours ago, VolenteHawk said:

I’ll take the Cubs -130 in Coors to avoid the sweep.

 

Nice call.  Followed you on that one.  Currently sweating out the Rangers +150 at Boston.  Only game I like later today is Phils -129 to take the series from AZ.

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We're not letting this thread die, are we?

LAA vs Toronto - under 9.5.  No Upton for LAA tonight who only came back last night and no Bour either who has a couple of HR since getting called back up.  

Houston -175 at Cincy.  Only 175?  I would bet this up to -195 which is pretty much my limit on any bet. Don't like anything -2 or higher.

ATL +107 vs NYM.  I like the home dog, SP's about even WHIP 1.19 for Teheran vs 1.13 for deGrom. 

PHI +154 @ WAS.  No Realmuto tonight, Arrieta is not the old Arrieta, but I still like PHI at these odds.

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Zac Gallen making his MLB debut tonight and has been dominant in AAA.  Taking the Marlins at a juicy +165.

 

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Posted (edited)

^ Their pen tried multiple times to fuck you, but tying run got picked off 2nd to finally end it in 11.

Nice hit. 

Edited by spystud13

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Yeah, that game was more of a sweat than it needed to be, but we survived.

Let’s grab the Pirates today at +130.

 

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On 6/23/2019 at 11:58 AM, VolenteHawk said:

Yeah, that game was more of a sweat than it needed to be, but we survived.

Let’s grab the Pirates today at +130.

 

Wow talk about a sweat...

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19 minutes ago, shakahorn said:

ASG - gotta ride the AL, right? -117.

Why the hell not?

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Posted (edited)

A little more juice than I like to lay, but Cleveland is in a good spot tonight so I'll swallow the -150.

Edit: By the time I logged in it was -140...I'll use that for the purposes of scoring.

 

Edited by VolenteHawk

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I’m a Royals fan that bet on Cleveland, and even I didn’t make it through that marathon but woke to a larger account balance.

Speaking of the Indians, you can still get them in the +200 range to win the AL Central. They’ve cut it to 2 games, so I like that value a lot. I haven’t bet it yet, because I’ve got a bunch on them over 90 1\2 wins and don’t know if I want to add to my liability, but likely will...that +200 is juicy.

+600 on the Nats to catch the Braves for the NL East is worth a flyer, too.

 

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San Francisco +110 and Toronto EV today.

Also kinda like the Pirates as a small dog and might close my eyes, play the Orioles +200, and not watch that game.

 

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Posted (edited)

I did not.  Didn't play the Pirates, either.  A 3-1 day for a shade over a 3 unit profit would have been lovely.  Alas, I broke dead even.

Cubs -110 is the play today.

 

Edited by VolenteHawk

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i have been hammering the Astros runs scored since the grienke trade at o4.5 or o5. also altuve/brantley/yuli/bregman +2.5 runs, rbi, hits when available. its been a good run.

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got a few parlays cooking today:  ATL/OAK/HOU 25 to win 68; CUBS/Astros 25 to win 42; Brews/Rays/KC 25 to win 93; NYY/STL/Col 25 to win 130

 

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About 50 games left in the stretch run.  I've been pretty hot on this thread (12-5, +8.36U)...bound to regress but I'm upping bet sizes so laying 1.5U on dogs and laying to win 1.5U on favorites.  If I cool off in the next week, I'll ratchet it back down.

Today's picks, Giants +105, Nats -120

I did take the futures bets I posted previously, Cleveland +200 to win the AL Central, Nats +600 to win the NL East, to go with preseason bets of Cleveland OVER 90.5 (-110), Baltimore UNDER 58.5 (-154), and Yankees to win the AL East -130.  Cleveland by far by biggest liability, so that will be the biggest sweat.  All the others are nice-to-haves.

 

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Day 1 of upping bet size turns into my first 0-2 of the season, the 4 run Mets 9th stung.  The handicap hasn't changed in these two series, so we're running back both picks from yesterday.

Giants EV

Nats +110

 

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On 8/8/2019 at 10:22 AM, riloh05 said:

i have been hammering the Astros runs scored since the grienke trade at o4.5 or o5. also altuve/brantley/yuli/bregman +2.5 runs, rbi, hits when available. its been a good run.

What about 5.5?

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, LonghornJones said:

What about 5.5?

hammered it again.

Edited by riloh05

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, LonghornJones said:

What about the 6.5 for Game 1?

hammered that one as well...-105

Edited by riloh05

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6 hours ago, LonghornJones said:

Ok, I'm calling 9-6 Astros in Game 1.

That sucked. Running it back tomorrow.

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Ha!  Yeah.  When the Royals went to Alex Gordon to pitch the 7th I jumped on the live over for multiple units, too...which actually was a little sweat when a backup infielder got the first two outs in the 9th.  If you're going to watch your team get destroyed, you might as well get paid.

 

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Hit this parlay earlier in the week. I just throw small amounts on them as you can see8eb465fdf82bf29384d2b47c27ea4ed1.jpg

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