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Goredho

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Goredho

  1. Shit yeah, there's no more sure way to get on a Netflix documentary than to attend this.
  2. They’re recruiting, you know.
  3. The first album I consumed repeatedly, end to end, on an old phonograph player in the house.
  4. I tend to agree with you there. A deal, any deal, would be enough to calm a lot of fears and get a lot of investors off the ledge. But I'm not sure that's going to do anything but extend the runway of an irrational market. We all feel sorta safe again, but all businesses are left having to focus on implementing one-off behaviors to account for every tariff deal we make with every country. That's time and money that's not going towards the core mission of the business, but to react to the governmental terraforming of the world's economic landscape. That's not a good context for actual growth of the business. Longer term, I still think we are risking our standing as the economic Sun that the rest of the world orbits around. Tariff deals will be made short term because they have to, but even Japan is right now looking at strategies to eliminate our ability to shake down their economy. How do I know this? Because they are not fucking morons. They have a self-interest to serve. I am pretty intrigued by Europe as an investment opportunity. The EU is collectively the world's 3rd largest economy. Their governments, especially Germany, are starting to invest heavily in things they took for granted from the U.S. commitment to NATO. The US (largest economy) and China (2nd largest economy) are engaged in an economic war and will bloody each other's markets/economies. Both will try to enlist the EU as an economic ally and/or to deny them to the opposition as an economic ally. The EU may decide who "wins" the tariff wars by who they embrace. Or if they can successfully not have to embrace either at the exclusion of the other, they may wind up being number 1 after the US and China kneecap each other. This is totally some Dunning-Kruger armchair economist analysis informed mostly by a Game Of Thrones polisci education, but I am curious if anyone else with a more informed opinion might see validity to this thinking? Feel free to tell me to stfu and stick to things I actually know something about.
  5. Yeah, until next week. I appreciate the post, but the point isn't the details of what we should be doing, the point is that we and everyone else have had their business upended based on the capricious economic policies of someone who thinks they are smarter than Warren Buffet, Jerome Powell and every other banker /economist. Instead of focusing on how to best serve our customers, we are having to focus on how best to serve the governmental intrusion into our business for some end that does not help our business or our customers. That is multiplied across every business in the country. It does not appear to be going away anytime soon. What effect does that government-induced waste have on a market, economy and currency of the host nation?
  6. I love Leach, but I'm gonna have to side with Woody Hayes here. Three things can happen when you pass the quarterback, and two are bad.
  7. DOGE should look into this… https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/musks-spacex-is-frontrunner-build-trumps-golden-dome-missile-shield-2025-04-17/ WASHINGTON, April 17 (Reuters) - Elon Musk's SpaceX and two partners have emerged as frontrunners to win a crucial part of President Donald Trump's "Golden Dome" missile defense shield, six people familiar with the matter said. Musk's rocket and satellite company is partnering with software maker Palantir (PLTR.O), opens new tab and drone builder Anduril on a bid to build key parts of Golden Dome, the sources said, which has drawn significant interest from the technology sector's burgeoning base of defense startups. more in the link.
  8. It’s going to be funny when Alex Jones eats every last one of Elon Musk’s kids.
  9. Just wait until it uses an AI model of the kids voice to engage mom and pops...
  10. I have talked to two Trump-voter acquaintances here in rural Colorado about recent economic events. The first is a blue collar guy without much education. Nice guy, but not very bright. Gets his news from conservative sources. He is convinced to this day that Kamala was out to destroy the USA. That if she had been elected, everyone's savings would not just be wiped out, but that she would have literally "destroyed" him and people like him. His words. He thinks everyone with money in the market that is worried are either under the mainstream-media's spell and reacting to false narratives, or that they are actively trying to hurt Trump's presidency by crashing his market. He feels like Trump is a hero, knocking us out of the way of an oncoming freight train, and that any damage is the equivalent of a skinned knee that is an outcome far more favorable than the alternative. The second is a retired school teacher and former Democrat who happened to build a nice little nest egg for himself over the years. Decently educated, above average intelligence. Gets his news from conservative sources, and they told him in the lead up to the election that a stock market reckoning was coming. That if Kamala was elected, we would be in the Great Depression 2.0 by now, but that if Trump was elected, there would be about a 15% market hit before stabilizing. He feels like what we are feeling from Trump's economic policies are the equivalent of a bruised tailbone after someone (Trump) mostly stops your fall that would otherwise break your neck. He feels safe heavily invested in oil & gas equities because of the President's promise to "Drill, baby, drill." These people are not feeling pain yet. They aren't doubting things yet. The first one? He has no savings for economic policy to affect. The second? It's all part of the pre-election economic prophecy.
  11. I'm a tech guy, but its fin tech. We are in the risk mitigation business. We need to be able to look at a customer's financial data and ascertain if we want to loan to them at all, and if so, at what terms that give us a solid bet to get back our principal and interest. Our customers are businesses selling to consumers. Our poor data scientists have been scrambling to try to figure out how to work supply chain details into our models, and its looking like an impossible task. Even if you find data that correlates to more lending risk today, the rules will change tomorrow, or next week. They are frustrated as fuck and morale is declining as they try to chase the chaotic whipsaw economic policy. There are likely a million little stories like this at every company in the US (world?) that add up to an enormous amount of pointless effort and missed opportunities. A wholly different kind of governmental waste being inflicted upon the nation.
  12. Having to send in a large check to the IRS today, and will be moving to quarterly payments in the future. Sending this to the government as they are actively shaking down my portfolio pisses me off. It's enough to turn me into a no tax, unobtrusive government Republican. Wait...
  13. No, with RFK Jr, it's literally a bear.
  14. No, but his username sorta checks out.
  15. That wasn’t just your every day @Brisketexan mierda del grande burrito explosion.
  16. Chinese govt > US consumers > US govt
  17. Well, there is good and bad news here. The good news? He’s not a mad king intent on burning it all to the ground. Appeals can be made for relief. I am sure there will be theatrics, shakedowns and more “great times to invest!”, but no intentional driving the bus off the cliff. Which is not to say there is not more bad than good that will come about with his antagonistic economic policies. The world will play ball with the U.S., its dollar and markets (because it has to) while striving to disconnect from them (because that’s in their strategic interest). No one knows what will be the outcome of that. The bad news?
  18. Well, I certainly hope you are correct, but that’s a bit light on how things have materially normalized to something close to what they were before liberation day. I’m looking for indicators vs faith.
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