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Jatrain

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Everything posted by Jatrain

  1. Jatrain

    LBGTQ

    Anybody who says a male amateur single digits handicap can keep up with the LPGA pros is full of shit. Last year in the Hilton Tournament of Champions a bunch of good scratch amateur men (pros in other sports so good athletes) teed up with the women: same tees, same set-up. Danielle Kang shot 16 under all four rounds in the 60’s. Only one man even broke 72 for a single round (Mardy Fish shot a 70). Derek Lowe (.2) was in a playoff with Annika (retired, 51 years old) for low “amateur” at +6. Mark Mulder (scratch) was +18. Smoltz, who’s played Champions tour events, was +18. Mardy Fish (+2.8) was +19. Moving the tees back wouldn’t help the men either. As posted, average driving distance is similar for LPGA vs scratch men. And accuracy disparity is going to grow even bigger with longer irons into the greens. An LPGA pro is much more accurate than a scratch amateur with an 8 iron vs the am’s PW. If you go to 5 iron be 7 iron it’s going to be even bigger (see Mark Brody, strokes gained data).
  2. The “establishment” early on jumped on the animal origin hypothesis to the point that people suggesting a lab leak were grouped in with science deniers and conspiracy theorists. The March 2020 paper “The Proximal Origin of SARS-CoV-2.” made a very firm statement that “we do not believe that any type of laboratory-based scenario is plausible”. Francis Collins promoted its findings on the NIH website and in interviews. Dr. Fauci did the same. Of course later on we find out directly from their emails that both Collins and Fauci were in contact with the authors and played a significant role in shaping the final paper towards that conclusion. One month before that paper was published, the lead author stated that while they had been trying to disprove the lab leak theory, they didn’t have enough evidence to provide high confidence in accepting or dismissing either the lab leak or animal origin models and that they until they do they should not publish. Yet less than a month later they do publish, making the conclusion I stated above. The data didn’t change over that month only the strength of the conclusion (as seen when comparing earlier summaries and drafts). Does that equal conspiracy against lab leak? Of course not, but I do think the emails around this paper demonstrate a bias against lab leak at the highest level and a desire to promote a finding in line with their thinking at the time (I will note that both Collins and Fauci have recently softened their stance against lab leak, as good scientists should do when presented with conflicting data).
  3. I may have been hyperbolic with the “blockbuster” data comment, beyond that you make my point for me. This small sample of data, that needs to be analyzed and those results published for peer review, has been jumped on by media outlets as “strong evidence” for an animal origin (As pointed out by Anastasis). If you just google “raccoon dog” you’ll find tons of stories in reputable outlets, the majority of which take a tone much more similar to that of the Atlantic article rather than the Ars article you posted. I place that at the feet of the researchers. As I said the first place they went with this data was The Atlantic and I have a hard time believing that the author of that the story would have made such a strong statement unless the researchers intimated to her that the data was something more than “small snippets of data that may suggest an area of potential research.”
  4. So help me out here…the Chinese CDC uploads (and then deletes) some genetic data to a public database. Some researchers download it before it was deleted, analyze it and ……. don’t publish their findings in an actual scientific journal, where the data is made public and their analysis can be peer reviewed, but instead keep the data secret and go first to the media (The Atlantic) and then to the WHO with their findings. Can we (and especially the “Follow the Science” crowd) not see the inherent inconsistency (hypocrisy?) present with these researchers forgoing the standard, accepted method of science inquiry, publishing research in peer reviewed journals? Even if their data and analysis is correct, they invite skepticism as to their motives, especially, intentional or not, releasing this (in this manner) on the heels of the Department of Energy’s acceptance, to contrary of what the establishment has said, of a lab leak as least a possibility. Now, all of a sudden, blockbuster new data is found that points to the preferred narrative and articles appear in a bunch of the lay media (vs scientific publications) outlets like the Atlantic, NYTs, etc and that data is only given to an organization, the WHO, that has demonstrated a vested interest and desire for the animal transmission model to be accepted. It’s disappointing to see researchers and leaders who should know better do things like this. Unfortunately, it’s happened throughout the pandemic and when found out it feeds conspiracy theories and erodes public trust.
  5. His fiancé put up a bigger fight than Gane.
  6. https://1stream.eu/title-game/ufc-285-jones-vs-gane-live-stream/7592?sport=mma
  7. Well, we have a lot of good breweries so you should be covered there. Some of my favorites are Huss, Wren House, Az Wilderness, Fate, Pedal Haus. Downtown Mesa has Oro Brewing and Beer Research Institute plus a bunch of thrift and vintage shops. (Republica Empanada is really good there, too). Outside of that golfing ($$$$)and hiking (free) are great right now.
  8. I don’t have to make the states say anything, 3 defensive fouls in a 40 minute game played at that speed and intensity speak for itself. The refs set the tone early that physical play was allowed (and I’d argue that Tech played just as physical as Kansas). The play on Botcho or on the drive hadn’t been called a foul all night long. Hell, they didn’t even call a foul in a dangerous situation when Adams got hit in the back on the final dunk. Good coaches/teams adapt to what the refs are calling.
  9. They called 6 fouls on you for the entire game and three of those were offensive. They called the end of the game exactly like they rest of it. They may have been bad but they were consistent.
  10. The defense crossed the “expert” on this and he threw a hissy fit and basically refused to answer but what happens is: 1) The tabulator at the election location attempts to read the ballot. If it can’t (say for example it was the printer settings were incorrect) then…. 2) The ballot is sent to the central ballot center (MCTECH) to be read again with a more sensitive tabulator. If that tabulator is unable to read the ballot, then…. 3) It’s is duplicated, under the observation of both GOP and Dem election observers, onto an entirely new ballot that is then tabulated. Those votes get counted. Even if Lake can demonstrate there were some issues with voting, they have to prove 1.) Intentional misconduct by a specific party 2.) That change a specific number of votes large enough to effect the outcome of the election. The only number we’ve heard so far, based on heresay evidence, is “around 50 votes” that may have gotten entered at the Runbeck facility (not a polling site) (we Of course don’t know who those votes were actually for)
  11. They don’t have the legal right to not certify the election, it’s felony for them not to do so and, by attempting to do so they’re actually cutting off their nose to spite their face because they’re disenfranchising voters in a majority Republican county meaning and 2-3 close statewide races would flip from R to D. And even though it would ultimately help my “side” here in AZ, I don’t want them to do so because, not being a hypocrite, I want everyone to have a opportunity to vote and for that vote to count, even if I think they are voting the wrong way.
  12. His wife’s other cousin started a slow clap and eventually the whole family joined in. That cousin’s name? Albert Einstein.
  13. If they’re not there already, when Ukrainian forces get close enough to the border, do they / should they attack military targets (rail lines, fuel depots, etc) in Russia?
  14. Judging by his hands, I don’t think his reign will be long.
  15. FFELP are this weird hybrid type of loan that have been treated differently than Direct loans throughout they pandemic relief stuff (and before all the way back to PSLF first started). If the government held the loans then they were treated the same as a Direct loan, but if a private company held the loan then they were not. My wife took advantage of the 1 year PSLF waiver to have her loans ($180k) completely forgiven (Thanks Biden!). To do so she had to consolidate her FFELP loan into a Direct loan. She did not receive reimbursement for the any payments beyond the 120 required as her loan was a FFELP when she made those payments. Had she been in a Direct she would have been reimbursed.
  16. She’s been claiming fraud for the past couple of weeks leading up to election. Of course, she’s hasn’t given any proof, or turned anything over to election authorities so they could actually put a stop to it. In other Arizona news, a Republican candidate had a ceast and desist letter served on her today because she was encouraging her supporters to steal the special pens used to vote with.
  17. That’s all fine but it doesn’t really address the question. I’m trying to see what harm comes about from a (7, 14, 30 day?) waiting period. Saying those other types of guns aren’t as commonly used in mass shooting ignores the fact that all types of shootings are tragic. Self-inflicted as Brisket already pointed out. Accidental. Domestic Partner Violence. Just because these things have become commonplace and don’t make headlines doesn’t mean we shouldn’t take action to reduce them. So in weighing cost/benefits to waiting periods, I’m seeing potential benefit not only for mass shooting but for other types of shooting. What I’m not seeing is a downside? You mention self defense, which I can somewhat see, but I don’t know how waiting periods limits someone owning a gun for self defense? If a threat is known and is so eminent that you needs to buy a gun right now, it feels like the police should be involved? There is no single solution, but waiting periods seem like a low cost step
  18. What’s the negative to requiring a waiting period on all guns?
  19. Yep, walkon playing because everyone else was hurt
  20. Just got back from the Big Island. Did the Walgreens test, got it back in a couple hours, no big deal. They also tested us when we landed, not sure if that was optional or not. Try to sit at the front of the plane. They have about 5 stations processing you for SafeTravels when you get off, we got through quick but I heard people complaining about the wait. We added a couple of days last minute and had to upgrade to a convertable for $40/day but other than that no problem with rental car. Da Poke Shack was the best place we ate. Great poke, ahi burgers and Lau Lau. Go early because they run out. We did a Dolphin Swim plus snorkeling at Haleakala Bay. It was very good. We heard good things about the Manta Ray swim. Two Step Beach had good snorkeling from the shore. I found Kilauea cool, kids (7&9) and wife were underwhelmed. We liked the beach just north of the Airport across from the cemetery best for beach days (non-snorkeling). Hilo side was unimpressive. The island is big and it takes longer than you think to get everywhere. Overall it doesn’t feel as nice/upscale as Maui.
  21. Well, it was supposed to be completed by May 14th, which is when they have to be out of the old arena they are using. At their current pace, they’ll be lucky to finish by the end of the summer. They’re suppose to being going door to door interviewing/intimidating voters as well - they haven’t started that yet as they are making this up as they go along. Literally.....they were court ordered to release their policies and procedures manual. And when they did the metadata showed it was created AFTER the court order and was basically a copy/paste job from other election manuals (down to the header graphics). Living here, it’s such a clown show that it’d be funny if it wasn’t a direct challenge to democracy.
  22. 42. Tested positive on Thursday. Started feeling sick Wednesday evening. Mainly head congestion with sinus headache. Fever overnight Wednesday right around 100, but no fever since then. Feeling a little run down, same headache, a little dry cough. Still have taste and smell. I think it’s from my wife. She started feeling run down on Saturday with some sinus congestion. She went and got tested on Monday, came back Tuesday as negative. After I got a positive she went and got tested again Thursday and was positive. She feels fine but can’t taste or smell anything.
  23. I called in and listened to the Arizona state case today. The GOP managed to put up a handwriting expert who, on cross, admitted that she uses the term “Dr” even though she hasn’t actually received a PhD. She lists herself on her CV as PhDc, with the little “c” standing for “Candidate”, her studies are at an online diploma mill. She couldn’t even articulate what peer review was (she said that she had some friends review some articles she wrote for a right wing organization). She also has a “PhDc” in holistic healing.
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