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Huckleberry

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Huckleberry

  1. I believe that means it's not allowed to go back (to whiter) on election day per conventional wisdom.
  2. Yeah if Trump wins the PA election day vote 63-35 (what I think that poster is basing their concerns on) it would be surprising. People aren't grasping that before COVID, election day went to Democrats. My dad is a lifelong Democrat and last night I texted him and asked why he hasn't voted yet after looking at the Travis County election rosters. He said he is going back to his tradition of voting on election day.
  3. Should all say D11. Trying to update and work at the same time.
  4. Continued slowdown (not a surprise because of Halloween), redder counties slowed down slightly more again.
  5. I know it's tough, but they've made their choice. The good news is you've got us. Shit, no wait, that's more bad news. Sorry about your Friday.
  6. And these myriad problems are so obvious to anyone with any basic legal training whatsoever, and even many people without any legal training, that sanctions against filing counsel are certainly on the way, right?
  7. Top 9 counties have the same number of registered voters as the rest of the state. I use top 15 only because that's how far down the historical early voting results pages go on the Texas elections site.
  8. Depends on what we are talking about. I think 9% of registered Republicans who vote is feasible. 9% of people who currently consider themselves Republicans is less likely.
  9. Due east, but call it East Pakistan if you really want to get some Bangladeshis riled up.
  10. Anybody that is trying to absolve Cole of fault on that play either knows absolutely nothing about baseball or is scared of Cole's reaction to being called out. @Beau Vine's clip from Game 1 shows that the problem is he is 100% lazy on that play. IDEA THIEF!
  11. @bolverk's data would be better here but seems unlikely. I have estimated 2.54mm to 2.10mm in favor of Ds from the top 15 counties. Using 2020 vote splits this would estimate a .56mm lead for R right now. 53.9% to 46.1% out of votes cast for one of the two. Which seems a lot more reasonable.
  12. In late October they published a Biden 51-46 national poll
  13. This part will be easier when it's just girl talk after your involuntary surgery.
  14. Yeah I'm not sure if mine is being interpreted as bad news but it isn't. In fact the last few days have seen more of a slowdown the redder the county is. This very well may be the election day vote cannibalization that has been discussed.
  15. The difficult part is we know that the big sort (migration) and party realignment (primarily education level based) are happening but we can't know relative impacts until actual results come in. That's where the not knowing shit about fuck comes from. Which one has a bigger impact on Pennsylvania for example? They have a large population of uneducated white people in the western half of the state, but they are also losing more Republican voters to migration. Add to all of this that party registration lags realignment, it doesn't lead.
  16. It's in the we don't know shit about fuck pile. The 2020 and 2024 elections are going to have different early versus election day voting profiles for the one big obvious reason. Before COVID, Democrats voted on election day and Republicans voted early (generally speaking those were their preferences). How much are we moving back toward that in 2024? Nobody knows. I will say that the movement isn't huge but the more rural counties out of the top 15 counties in Texas are losing steam faster than the urban ones the last few days. Everyone is, but there used to be 4 counties ahead of their compressed 2020 EV rate and 3 of them were Trump counties in 2020. Now there is only one.
  17. Sir, you're on a Texas-based board and you're going to have to stop worrying about other fanbases for a while. Your team just won the World Series.
  18. I swear to the baseball gods that if there is no opposing fan with a sign saying COVER FIRST TODAY TOMORROW FOREVER at Cole's first start next season I will riot. Hell, Yankees fans should have them, too. If I were one of them tweeters that would be a good one tonight.
  19. Congrats to @Sbbruin and the Dodgers. What an epic choke job by the Yankees tonight.
  20. So their big takeaway is that in consecutive midterm elections each party did better when they weren't in the White House. How insightful.
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