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Huckleberry

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Huckleberry

  1. Dallas County probably has an "I registered" sticker.
  2. I've voted for more Rs than that since I could vote (1996) but as I said in a thread somewhere this week, I don't care about party. I vote based on values and principles. It's not my fault that in 2024 that means voting against a particular party in every race possible. That's their fault.
  3. To add to the above, Dallas County's four day total in terms of percent of registered voters who have early voted barely beats Harris County's first three days. Get your shit together, Dallas County.
  4. "I love America. Also, I hate literally everything about America."
  5. Dallas County with a huge drop today. Focus on Harris might need to be redirected because Dallas is more Democratic and worse at voting. Sure there are only 56% as many registered voters but it would be a major boost.
  6. My economics teacher was a history teacher teaching another class. My government teacher was badass, though.
  7. This is exactly it. The most important thing to know is what you don't know. And if you can't admit that then your insecurity holds you back. And that's what Silver is, he's essentially a decently smart but terribly insecure quant who got famous in a niche market.
  8. It's "regression toward the mean" which may offer a hint. It also applies to random variables or results that are largely affected by randomness which election vote totals really aren't. And the Pennsylvania situation you're describing isn't an average, it's a historical trend. Not the same thing. Unless you think people should have expected California to vote for Bob Dole in 1996. Or for Alabama and Mississippi to go back to the Democrats after Goldwater won. There's a lot more than randomness at play in presidential elections.
  9. So we're just ignoring the part where Helobious has no idea what regression to the mean is?
  10. I have a theory for why it suddenly looks like that. It's because it was always that strong.
  11. That's not very surly of you. As I said, I was commenting on how you are ignored, not mocked
  12. To be fair it was more about how his post was ignored, not outright mockery. I stretched the analogy, one of my favorite pastimes.
  13. Late October 2032 - royiv casts his vote for Republican presidential nominee Kid Rock I kid, I kid.
  14. That Marist independent voters in swing states poll is what we're talking about when we say none of the talk of polls favoring Trump makes sense when you really look at it. If Harris is winning early voting independents 54-46 in swing states then it's over, she wins. We are seeing things return back to pre-COVID patterns where Rs are more likely to vote early. With Ds holding even or slightly ahead in early voting numbers in most swing states, if Harris is also easily winning independents then it's over. Obviously we can't be sure that poll is the one that's accurate but it just adds to the evidence that the polls don't make sense. That WSJ Trump +2 national poll is just absurd.
  15. I'm not above chips and salsa with a big ass margarita, sir.
  16. No, you vote on the screen, it prints out, then you run it through a scanner. The printed copy is actually what's counted.
  17. Washington Post link that quigley posted above
  18. Two main Cypress zip codes. Online obviously tilts Democratic so overall donations probably aren't like this but it's interesting.
  19. Update through D3. Looks like Day 1 was big and now we're settling into the 2016 pattern. D3 joins D2 in being more weighted to blue counties than D1 was. But these are only super slight gains. Poor turnout in Dallas and Bexar Counties are issues for Democrats.
  20. They need to flood Harris, Dallas, Bexar, and Travis Counties with a few great GOTV commercials. Something like the commercial @Bozo_Casanova posted earlier but with the woman saying "I didn't vote because I didn't think it mattered." Even better would be a couple with the man then saying "I didn't either, and for the same reason. And now I'm a man who didn't do everything I could to take care of my wife and child. Never again."
  21. May be? Sounds like they'll get around to figuring it out in a couple of years. Thanks, Merrick.
  22. It was but that doesn't work for Cloak Room satyanash so he left that part out.
  23. Haven't seen the tweet but this looks like you multiplied by .7 instead of .4
  24. Steepest D1 to D2 in-person drop we've seen. Overall the R counties dropped very very slightly more based on 2020 vote percentage weighting. Bad news for D hopes is that the 3 of the 4 counties ahead of their 2020 pace are R (Galveston, Denton, Brazoria with Cameron the only D). Good news is that the steepest early vote drop is Montgomery.
  25. Maybe the state but you know Wilco went for Biden, right?
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