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NoName

Burnt Ends
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  1. 3 minutes ago, texifornia said:

    But Nahlin loves the tape!

     

    i just want to point out this funny thing from On3's visit tracker

    this is not a situation where a guy visits one place a million times and nowhere else. but of course he thinks that's the case

    image.thumb.png.a6e42102d37304e9cb4528b7521b0d36.png

    pulled another random WR from socal who went to USC, Xavier Jordan. was ranked #10 last year in the state

    https://www.on3.com/db/xavier-jordan-153230/recruiting/

    image.thumb.png.f3f4555aaec40192081d26e63dd2b47a.png

  2. 56 minutes ago, TommyGufano said:

    Is this a bit? I'll admit I'm having difficulty caring enough to keep track of who's arguing what, but the guy's point is that Foreman turned out to be really fucking good. Not that he was dominant that game. That you came in and echoed your same arguments about how actually Foreman kind of stunk that game only strengthens any parallels he's drawing between what Blue showed last season and that specific Foreman game.

    he pointed out how this one 81 yard run in the OU game run showed him that Foreman had some crazy burst and how he was outrunning little dudes.

    on the run he pointed out, Foreman was caught from behind by 2 DBs and a 3rd would have tackled him if the first 2 didn't.

    and yes, i pointed out that outside of that on erun, Foreman wasn't great that game. he had 36 yards on 8 carries and had 0 touches in the 4th quarter

    the parallel he is pointing out is dumb. using any single run as a "this guy is awesome" example is dumb. comparing two guys together because of one run is dumb. that guy has a long history of posting dumb shit on this site. i

     

  3. 1 hour ago, Josef Pwag said:

    I just went back and watched the run. Foreman accelerated at the line and blew past a couple of smaller guys who underestimated his speed. Because of DBs in his way, he is weaving in s-curves as he runs down the field, while he is being tracked down by smaller guys taking direct lines at him, and they still barely catch him, with a diving shoestring tackle. It was exactly as I remembered. Foreman had a special burst, just like Blue. 

    Again, I predict Blue will end up being our starter by midseason and will have many explosive plays from the RB position this season. We will see. 

    my guy, you can't say someone was out there outrunning little guys (DBs) then he gets caught from behind by said little guys, one of whom he had a 5-6 yard lead on and the other who crossed from outside the numbers on the other side of the field to tackle him.

  4. 22 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

    I’m assuming by the time he finally the big hand the other seats at the table had turned over multiple times, unless the game was filled with sycophants who were determined to let him “win” from the start

    googled and got some more info. didn't turn over, it was a friend's game.

    https://davekarpf.substack.com/p/elon-musk-and-the-infinite-rebuy

    Quote

    [Max] Levchin was at a friend’s bachelor pad hanging out with Musk. Some people were playing a high-stakes game of Texas Hold ‘Em. Although Musk was not a card player, he pulled up to the table. “There were all these nerds and sharpsters who were good at memorizing cards and calculating odds,” Levchin says. “Elon just proceeded to go all in on every hand and lose. Then he would buy more chips and double down. Eventually, after losing many hands, he went all in and won. Then he said “Right, fine, I’m done.” It would be a theme in his life: avoid taking chips off the table; keep risking them.

     

    • Haha 2
  5. 14 hours ago, dieucla98 said:

    What if they started a relegation style format like soccer has (other than US soccer)? Let Andretti enter there, make it to the top 3, replace Cash App, Haas, or Alpine. Enough room for 20 teams across two levels.

    That style would make me care a whole lot more about the back markers. 

    would never work/happen. no team or ownership group would ever agree to put themselves at risk to lose that much money.

    like wood said, better to expand # of teams because that is way more realistic than promotion/relegation

    anyone have an example of a sports league from the last 50 years that didn't start off as pro/releg that then flipped?

    12 hours ago, dieucla98 said:

    Why? So we have more teams competing for last? Maybe they're worthy competition but make them prove it first and open up the number of teams to 20. Also, make me care about last. 

    Red Bull actually followed this exact formula in the Bundesliga. Enter a team in the dregs of German futbol, promote each year for ~4 years in a row and then compete at the highest level against the likes of Bayern Munich. That's earning your stripes. 

    soccer already had that. F1 does not.

    it devalues the teams if they can be relegated and someone bought in before that was the case. nobody is ever going to agree to de-value their team (hence the fight not to add a 11th team)

    soccer is way different than f1

     

  6. 9 hours ago, Delta Charlie said:

    Just finished the last of Don Winslow's 3 novel set about Danny Ryan.  "City in Ruins" closes out the story and is Winslow's final book.  All his stuff is great, but this series was excellent. 

    he's a damn good writer. highly recommend the Danny Ryan books, highly recommend the cartel/power of the dog series and highly recommend The Force (which was optioned to be a movie and still hasn't happened yet)

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  7. 15 hours ago, Josef Pwag said:

    Remember when most of us didn't know much about D'onta Foreman, and then he busted out a long run vs OU where he was outrunning much smaller guys? I got the same feeling watching Blue last year.

    once again you are blinded by a single run from a single game

    Foreman went 9 for 117 in the 2015 OU game.

    81 of that came on one play. he was not touched until he was 10 yards down the field, a guy got 1 arm on him there. then another guy dove at his ankles and he shrugged that off and then he wasn't touched again until he was tackled. this was a bad OU defense. Heard attempted 11 passes, Texas completed 9 passes for 55 yards and rushed it 58 times. Texas won 24-17.

    Foreman didn't outrun anyone lol. he had an 81 yard run and was tackled from behind at the 10 yard line with 3 dudes around him that all would have tackled him

    image.png.54fba2badefec4a69b5b625e71675bc0.png

    here's the 3 guys associated with that tackle (10, 13, 15)

    image.png.cb774f582e87c7f08f256d40ce3ad82b.png

    that touch happened with 10 seconds in the 3rd Q. that was his last touch of the game as Texas salted away the win with Heard (21 carries) and Gray (22 carries)

    the rest of the game he had 8 carries for 36 yards, or 4 yards per carry.

    dude was an incredible player at Texas. not denying that at all, but that single run is stuck in your mind as some kind of wild play where he ran away from a bunch of little dudes is absolutely incorrect.

  8. more shitting on cybertruck

    adnnk4lqihtc1.png

    thedrive: Tesla Cybertruck Gets Worse Towing Range Than Model X With the Same Trailer

    https://www.thedrive.com/news/tesla-cybertruck-gets-worse-towing-range-than-model-x-with-the-same-trailer

     

    Quote

     

    Bowlus hooked this trailer up to a Model X AWD before dragging it down the highway, where EVs tend to perform poorly. Nevertheless, Bowlus claimed to achieve a 235-mile range on a charge, or 71% of the 330-mile range Tesla claims for the SUV. Naturally, you'd expect that the powerful Cybertruck—which more than doubles the Model X's 5,000-pound towing capacity at 11,000 lbs—would do considerably better. Right?


    Well.


    Bowlus linked the same trailer to a dual motor Cybertruck, and then sent it down a mix of highway and "rural" roads. Highway speeds disadvantage EVs, particularly ones shaped like the Cybertruck, so this represented a near best-case, real-world towing scenario for the pickup. Still, it didn't do well: Bowlus said it only got 160 miles of range, which is roughly in line with some of the better results the Cybertruck has achieved in other towing tests so far.

     

    also this is absolutely the most Elon Musk story i've ever heard

    image.thumb.png.06702ae2a355b51931533b806a6aee41.png

     

    • Haha 5
  9. 4 minutes ago, Mittens said:

    Andretti is confident enough that this is going to happen that he's opened up shop in the UK and entering the minors.

     

    it's a great move. i hope they sign some talented dudes ASAP

  10. 2 minutes ago, Thetexashammer said:

    With Sabermetrics you could see that the traditional stats had underlying limitations, and Sabermetrics obviously improved on that. The stats above look like somebody went to a lot of effort. But I NEVER find that stuff convincing. I like the PFF grading but have no way to evaluate its accuracy

    just to be clear, this took less than 10 min thanks to https://collegefootballdata.com/ and Excel - not a long project and can be done even faster if you know anything about R and Python

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  11. 1 hour ago, Rimbo said:

    I love this discussion. Real football discussion.

    The problem, of course, is the problem with most attempts at statistical analysis of football: The sample sizes are too small to be meaningful. (Even in a Mike Leach's Wet Dream of a game where each player gets 100 snaps per game, we rarely look at all 100 snaps, and just one out of those can and will have an outsized impact on the results.)

    But here, 49 vs 36 attempts is... it just ain't nothin'. Better than what you'd get for a WR (or a lockdown CB that nobody ever bothers throwing at, because his guy's never open), but still barely worth the effort.

    You're not wrong at all. Just that nobody knows shit in this "discussion" as it were.

    i agree with the tiny sample size issue totally and completely. the point of that is that the data we do have and do have access to does not back up the "Guy A is more explosive than Guy B" eye test. 

    all we do know is that at every opportunity for their careers at Texas the coaching staff, which has access to way more data and way more information than we do, has said chosen to give more snaps to Baxter over Blue.

    here's is to hoping Texas has some wildass RB room next year and they both run for thousand yards.

    Just now, closetojumping said:

    I continue to be of the opinion that "big data" and "data science" as it pertains to college football can be just mental masturbation and ways for consultants and tech firms to suckle off the teat of the CFB behemoth. I say that as someone who completely understands the value of those terms and the work around them for baseball, golf, hockey, basketball, etc. In CFB the sample sizes are too small and the variables in rosters, conditions, injuries (something significantly more impactful on outcomes in game than other sports and not incorporated into any of the data outputs/predictions), etc. have significant beta on them that can only be overcome with sample sizes that aren't going to be there.

    I'm speaking mostly about individual player analysis/comparisons with advanced stats and the notion of "this is what the book said" as an excuse for determining outcomes in games. I get the uses for gambling and long term evaluation of playcallers and their habits. 

    Idiots who just mindlessly work off of a "book" or a "binder", like Herman, are as bad as the guys who used to only, it seemed, play for field goals.

    i agree that a lot of the value of those terms is better in other sports vs football in general. there is no CFB version of wRC+ out there to compare how good True Freshman Bijan was vs true freshman Cedric Benson or even an easier way to compare someone like Blue to someone like Baxter.

    i agree that the sample size is too small in CFB

    i agree that there are huge swings in variability to make any one of them the single best stat or single best metric.

    also i think there is absolutely value in looking some of the advanced stats as a piece of the puzzle and a piece of how good a player/team is. i think they are more valuable at the team level than the player level (much larger sample size at that point) but there is no be all end all stat

    i think some of the RB stats we had access to are useful (highlight yards vs line yards for example) - but again that doesn't show everything and isn't the end all be all.

    of all the (public systems) out there, prediction tracker tracks like 50 different (public) systems that all make game predictions and last year 2 total systems beat the line straight up and the best one was only 0.5% better than the line SU. ATS, the line was better by almost 5%. none of em are perfect, none of them are the end all-be all. 

    that said, the very basic stats around Blue vs Baxter absolutely do not back up the "Blue is incredibly explosive and way more explosive than Baxter."

    the comparison to Herman hurts

    8bffe9ad-cd88-46d7-855d-6e514bc1e962_tex

    i like stats, i think they add color to the discussion and add value to the discussion. you have to balance between the gut/eye test and the stats side of things. anyone who uses stats alone is as bad as someone who uses the eye test alone.

     

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  12. 1 hour ago, Josef Pwag said:

    The difference between 8-4 and 11-1 in college football is explosive plays, for and against you. With limited opportunities, Blue demonstrated that he is the one RB we have who can reliably create explosive plays from that position. I think him popping big runs is sustainable. He will being the year as our #2 and will end the year as our starter. 

    yeah, that's wrong.

    pulled the per play data for only the ISU game, the TTU game, the Oklahoma State game and the Washington game - games after Brooks got hurt and those two basically split rushing attempts. here's the results

    edit: fixed my %s, i had hardcoded formulas - my bad

    image.png.ccfd4221a489651218cd8f3932f18652.png

    By percentage, Baxter had fewer rushes that went for negative yards (2% for Baxter - 1 rush, 11.1% for Blue - 4 rushes), more rushes that went 5+ yards, more rushes that went 10+ yards.

    Blue had more rushes by % that went 20+ yards (2.8 vs 2.0%) and 1 that went for 30+ yards, Baxter had 0.

    this is just to prove that nobody was out here ripping of 18 yards very often and getting dinged by my 20 yard threshold

    • Blue's rushes of 10+ yards: 11, 12, 69, 12, 16, 12
    • Baxter's rushes of 10+ yards: 12, 13, 13, 14, 21, 13, 10, 14, 13, 16

    people get blinded by a 69 yard TD - which was awesome - but the guy was touched like 1 yard beyond the line of scrimmage and never touched again

    image.png.e724af69547af30aafc61e0c3dce12ae.png

    despite this guy having 40 yards and this angle on him (he took a really bad angle)

    image.png.9c20b96d34a8157b777182709d7da50c.png

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  13. On 4/9/2024 at 7:53 AM, statsman said:

    this is a damning quote

    Quote

    Bellinger reached out to the families of all 12 people who died in the 1999 disaster. As of January, Bellinger had visited with six of the families, three of which gave him the OK to restart the tradition, according to committee meeting notes.

    “He strongly implied, if not said, that the families who didn't agree with bringing back bonfire... they didn’t understand the spirit of the tradition and what it means to Aggies,” the committee member said. “It felt like it was just a box to check in saying that, ‘hey, we tried,’ before creating this tradition that he [Bellinger] wants to bring back.”

     

     

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  14. oh man, this article from Feb on Martinez is aging really bad. feel terrible for OSU

    https://www.oregonlive.com/beavers/2024/02/oregon-states-trent-bray-on-recruiting-the-transfer-portal-damien-martinezs-loyalty-and-nil.html

    Oregon State’s Trent Bray on recruiting, the transfer portal, Damien Martinez’s loyalty and NIL

    the Martinez bit
     

    Quote

    DAMIEN MARTINEZ’S LOYALTY

    Oregon State star running back Damien Martinez did the unthinkable after Smith bailed for Michigan State.

    He stuck around.

    As teammates were bolting for the portal and conference realignment was threatening the Beavers’ foundation, the two-time all-Pac-12 first-team selection decided to remain at Oregon State and stay true to a pledge he made before Smith left. The loyalty has been invaluable for Bray and the immediate future of the program.

    “It’s unbelievable,” Bray said. “Like, it’s everything. On a professional level, when you’re trying to do a job and a guy like that sticks around. But also on a personal level. It’s refreshing to see a guy not be bought by some other team.”

    And make no mistake, teams tried to buy Martinez.

    A source told The Oregonian/OregonLive in November that programs had been using back channels to try to entice Martinez to leave after the season, dangling lucrative NIL deals in front of him as a carrot. But he ignored the offers — which came even though he never entered the portal — and stayed committed to the school that believed in him when he was a lightly recruited high school player in Texas.

    In the end, Martinez had more loyalty than the coach who signed him.

    “There were plenty of teams that offered him a bunch to leave,” Bray said. “So it’s just refreshing. He’s a great guy to lean on to show what you want this place to be. That’s the type of guy we want and what this place is all about. It’s been great.”

    Martinez said he never judged any of his old teammates for leaving, but he felt like he had to stay with Bray and help the coach continue the momentum “we’ve built the last two years.”

    “Everyone had their own reason to leave,” Martinez said. “We were all in different situations, so everyone had their choices. I couldn’t do nothing but support those guys, because we’re chasing a dream and taking the steps — whatever they may be — to reach those dreams and goals.”

     

    this is the money quote, which really makes him look like a true piece of shit
     

    Quote

    Martinez said he never judged any of his old teammates for leaving, but he felt like he had to stay with Bray and help the coach continue the momentum “we’ve built the last two years.”

    “Everyone had their own reason to leave,” Martinez said. “We were all in different situations, so everyone had their choices. I couldn’t do nothing but support those guys, because we’re chasing a dream and taking the steps — whatever they may be — to reach those dreams and goals.”

     

  15. 14 hours ago, UTexasFight said:

    When is Mere’s due date?

    Cant fathom Scottie would bail if he’s on the leaderboard going in to the weekend hit apparently that’s what he’s going to do if she goes in to labor.

    Burns too.

     

    (SIAP)

    from twitter

    image.png.52e00f49ca7304ad56d520a0b8170c5f.png

  16. 7 minutes ago, ousux said:

    Oof.. depth is more important than ever before with a 12 team playoff, don't think aggy has any.

    The Elk may manage to cobble together a decent starting lineup on both sides of the ball, but they're just a few key injuries away from a late Jimbo-like disaster season.

    they are a few (any?) OL injuries away from being one of the worst offensive teams in the SEC. they have like two actual good OL on the team 1 of them plays inside.

    on defense they only have holes at Edge, DT, NT, LB and CB. they think they have even bigger holes at Edge if they are bringing in guys like Josh Celiscar at EDGE (he and Rylan Kennedy make up 40% of their EDGE players on campus right now)

    did i mention they also have 3 kickers on scholarship?

    and that they have an OC coaching his second year outside of the KSU bubble who hired 0 of the existing position coaches/has never worked with any of the already hired offensive coaches?

    next year is truly going to be a disaster for them.

    the OL alone means it's going to be a multiple year rebuild for them to be even decent.

    Dave Chappelle Snl GIF by Saturday Night Live

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  17. 17 minutes ago, ousux said:
    27 minutes ago, closetojumping said:
    This forum isn't a thoughtless mob and I don't pull any puppet strings. The reality is that you made an ass of yourself, as you often do, and you have presence of mind to simply shut the fuck up, take the loss and move on. Thus, numerous people were climbing over each other to mock your bad takes and even worse lack of ethics in the discussion.

    Ethics? Ethics in here? Since when is that a thing. I'm not unaware Blue was 3rd string last year in spite of being rated higher (before skipping his senior year) than JB and true Freshman Baxter named the starter. I thought it was purely on talent eval by Choice/Sark, I missed anything said about his character. Why didn't Sark say bye bye when he announced he was entering the portal? I don't think a RB that wasn't getting the touches he expected threatening to portal was any worse than a starting WR (no names here) doing the same after every season, just maybe a little less publicly?

    just to point out, Baxter was a higher ranked recruit than Blue was. we all know the Brooks story.

    Blue topped out at #60 in the composite, Baxter finished at #30

    Blue topped out at #31 (95 rating) in the Top247, Baxter finished at #30 (98 rating) and got as high as #26

    also if you can't see the difference between Xavier Worthy threatening to enter the portal to get more NIL money (but keeping it all in house) and a RB with 5 career touches letting folks know he was going to enter the portal - i'm not sure what to say.

    13 minutes ago, ousux said:

    In any case what he did to his HS team doesn't mean anything now, and apparently he hasn't quit on the Longhorns or he would have had the coaching staff helping him pack his bags after announcing he was hitting the portal. Is that an unreasonable assumption?

    let's review the tape on this:

    • news hits that Blue is expected to enter the portal via IT and other paysites, including TFB
    • Blue meets with coaches
    • reported that coaches told Blue he could enter the portal but if he did there was no place for him to come back to Texas
    • 4 hours after the news hitting Blue posts that he is "locked in"

    also if you don't think he has practiced what he was going to say about quitting on his high school team at all over the 3 years since he said it you really are fucking dumb.

     

  18. 20 minutes ago, ousux said:

    Congrats on being late to the party and digging up something that long since passed.

    yeah, i'm really necro'ing a conversation where original post was made 20 hours ago and the most recent post that it spawned was made like 4 hours ago.

    if you think me, or anyone else on this god forsaken website, is going to not take the opportunity to call out people for posting dumb shit you really are an idiot.

    saying this is peak dumb shit.

    Quote

    Blue never had an attitude problem, it was the media (and us to a degree) projecting that sort of thing onto him because he skipped his senior year.

    also, he didn't skip his senior year. he quit on his team, then tried to come back, then wasn't allowed back. this shit wasn't created whole cloth out of nothing.

    • Haha 1
  19. 5 hours ago, Catdaddyhorn said:

    I felt Blue should've gotten the larger share of opportunities behind Brooks last year and never understood why he didn't.  It seemed to me that Gerry Hamilton went out of his way to downplay Blue's qualities in favor of Baxter. I guess he was getting that view from his contacts on the staff because the imbalance in usage between the 2 last season never made sense to me.  

    so just to be clear, you have a situation where a guy quits his HS team, then his his freshman year gets 15 total carries and averages 2.2 yards, then says he's going to enter the portal, then decides not to when Texas tells him goodby, then gets so outclassed by a true freshman RB that he is a very distant third on the depth chart (for comparison Keilan Robinson had 3 rushes vs Bama and X and Mitchell both had the same # of carries as Blue in that game), then ends up only getting snaps for the year because the starter tears his ACL and it moves him to 2nd on the depth chart.

    ...does Blue have really nice wiggle? absolutely. but his stats are bumped up a ton by the fact he had 26% of his yardage for the year on 2 carries (3% of his total carries) - that is not sustainable nor is it a real perception of his skill.

    if you drop the one 69 yard carry it drops his YPC an entire yard per carry (6.12 to 5.14)

    this isn't that complex. the imbalance in usage between the two is because of skill and skillset differences between the two. even now, how many articles have been written about how Blue is expected to be the starter for 24 (i haven't seen any) - maybe he takes a huge jump forward, and i hope he does. but the reason for the imbalance is clear if you pay any attention

    again, Texas saw fit to start a true Freshman against Alabama, give him the most touches on the team in that game 15 touches (same as Brooks) and give you guy 1 and you are confused as to why the imbalance exists? clearly they and everyone else under the sun think one guy is significantly better than the other.

     

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