I heard this argument from Chris Christie and there is some sense in it. Christie surmised that any DOJ deal would include a provision that Trump was out of politics and there was the ability to enforce that provision. Christie added that any guilty verdict would include prison time and how he has personally heard Trump say that he couldn't survive prison.
Christie referenced a discussion that he had with Trump in the mid 2000s when a former President of the NJ Senate was federally sentenced to prison for a couple of years. At that time, Trump asked Christie what was really going to happen to the guy, and Trump was shocked when Christie informed him that the guy was going to prison even with a plea. Trump told Christie he couldn't handle prison.
Trump may be risking the following:
acquittal of all charges.
Biden winning in 2024 and Trump ending up in prison.
Trump winning in 2024, pardoning himself, and SCOTUS rejecting that pardon. Trump going to prison on Jan 20, 2029.
SCOTUS inexplicably saying that a President can pardon themselves, effectively putting them above the law.