I agree, the soccer super league will happen, a breakaway elite college football league will happen.
Listening to Baylor fans cry about the loss of regional cfb when they left the very regional SWC is gold. Most people would not care if Purdue, Mississippi State, Northwestern, or Vanderbilt got left out they care that their “region” is represented which means you just can’t also cut out Indiana/Notre Dame, Ole Miss, Illinois, and Tennessee (which is why you could see some wonky things like how Syracuse, Boston College, UConn, West Virginia, and Kansas could make it in while other more athletically deserving Big 12 schools don’t).
I agree with all his points except basketball. We have DI, DII, DIII, NAIA, and JUCO leagues separated out for a reason. Basketball will split at some point too as we don’t need 400 teams in DI. Even if you just took the FBS conferences, you could kick that number down to 130 plus the top 5 nonFB conferences Big East/A10/WCC and go back to a 64 team bracket.
If the elite college football league can run its own basketball tournament and make more money it will (I think the obvious answer here is yes). The only question is do you include anyone else, and if so how many and who.