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Eastwood

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Eastwood

  1. These assholes really tried to get it green during power hour. Getting a real "coiled" feeling here. I think if we have clear results Tuesday night, we're going up in a hurry.
  2. If I remember the story correctly, it was during a shutdown so the Whitehouse kitchen was unavailable. McDonald's was his alternative. But you are right, if he was a billionaire, he should have no problem dropping 50 Gs to make sure guests he invited to his house got the same experience as the previous year's.
  3. Yeah, this whole thing is exactly why I'm not worried about some kind of 4D chess election shenanigans. These are the same people who declared victory when Trump "wrestled control of the nation back from scientists," as they see it. These people felt challenged... By scientists specializing in virology and immunology... During a pandemic. This is reaping what the anti-intellectual movement of the early to mid 2000s has sown.
  4. There's a lot of "counter-culture" and "shock value" voting in that demographic. My neighborhood has a group of recent high school grads that have Trump bumper stickers and Trump flags on their trucks. Being a Trump supporter in that demographic is the same as any teenage fad. It gets them attention, regardless if it is good or bad, and gives them something to rally around with their peers. Just based on my own observations, I have a good hunch that it will be a phase that they look back on and wonder what the hell they were thinking, like all teen fads.
  5. Urban doesn't need to string Texas along just to get Herman fired and then back out. That's short-game, littleman narcissism. Urban is a big man narcissist. He knows Tom is dead in the water here. How does Tom getting fired do anything for him as a way of payback? A narcissist like Urban is the kind that will want to step into the exact role of someone he hates, do everything that person couldn't, then walk away like he didn't even care about it. Pure smug spite. And that's exactly what Urban intends to do.
  6. I'll dig even deeper on this. The more orthodox evangelicals don't think Catholics are christian, at all. They think Catholicism is a polytheistic religion that worships a living man as fervently as God, himself, as well as viewing the saints as separate entities that are worshiped. And it's funny you mention the works/repentance aspect of it. Evangelicals actually think that Catholics have an easier path to heaven in their religion because all they have to do is "buy" their way in with hollow good deeds rather than true repentance. How else could you explain a religion embraced by adulterers like JFK and entire societies based on crime like the mafia. That's their words, not mine, by the way. If I had to classify myself as anything these days, it's as a "Golden Rule Agnostic."
  7. It's a great read, but it won't make a difference with evangelicals. If I sent this around to my evangelical family members, their first response will be that he's Catholic. Catholics don't count for Southern evangelicals. I can't speak to other regions, though. I could ask them if they've ever even seen anything remotely resembling a similar behavior in Trump, and they'll counter that Biden probably had someone write that for him and he didn't even give any input on it. Biden needs to keep it up, though. Although there aren't many undecideds left, this election is less a straight up competition and more like a late season college football game. You can't just win. You gotta dominate and look great doing it because it has to pass the eyeball test.
  8. The concerning thing I see if that PA is down to +5. It was +7 before the final debate, I think. So, it is possible the oil comments caused a ding there, but as long as Biden holds +5 in PA through 11/3, I think the election is safe. If Biden falls within the MOE in PA, MI, or WI, then it's a nail biter. If not, it's a 300+ EV win.
  9. Get ready to hear about Bush v. Gore over and over and over again on November 3rd. It solidified the state legislatures as the sole bodies that sets election laws in the states. The Texas Supreme Court threw out the Republican challenge to the Abbott extension solely because they did not timely file in the Court's eyes. It is unlikely for that case to end up in front of SCOTUS, but look for any similar challenges to the of amending state election laws due to COVID to show up in front of SCOTUS before December rolls around.
  10. I had a group of calls for December, so that's a yikes. Kind of tempted to hold until election to see how the market reacts.
  11. I really don't think it will come down to some final showdown in the courts. If Biden gets up over 300 EC votes, and I think he will, this is exactly how Trump will be treated by the Rs:
  12. This is where I stand. If Trump really was a useful idiot, his time in office has outlived his usefulness. They'll take what they got out of the last 4 years and punt if it really is Biden by more than a 300 EVs projected. They absolutely cannot risk the civil war that WILL happen if SCOTUS comes in and overturns votes cast to flip the EV counts of Biden and Trump. Trump might be a "King of the Ashes" type, but the established Rs that rode the Trump train are not. McConnell isn't a "King of the Ashes" kind of guy. He will circle the wagons and, for lack of a better term for McConnell, turtle up and let the next two years play out to reposition and reset. The Rs won't push all in on a guy who has been nationally embarrassing and insulting him when he sees fit. Once there's blood in the water, the establishment Rs will be the first ones to swarm him.
  13. Very hard to believe that the independent vote is anything but a heavy Biden vote. People who are Trump voters are way more likely to identify as Republican than Independent.
  14. 1. dead/ fake/ burning ballot votes to disenfranchise plenty of folks 2. ??? 3. Profit
  15. Tip of the cap to Fud for standing in the pocket. He didn't come in here and throw out a couple of one-liners and disappear.
  16. Look, everyone, I can put this whole oil thing to rest... I went to TexAgs last night and they were throwing a Trump victory celebration over the comment. They are convinced that Biden just sealed his fate in literally every swing state and Lean D state over that comment. They think Trump is getting over 350 EC votes. When TexAgs is that sure of something, it is doomed to be the exact opposite.
  17. I talked ad naseam about the oil comment last night. Republicans are dancing in Biden's grave in PA over it. PA isn't an oil state, it's a natural gas state. They're second only to Texas. As long as this nation needs natural gas, there will be jobs for it in PA regardless of what happens to oil.
  18. I worked wind farms for just over 4 years and worked a couple BP projects. Natural gas is not only the main source of energy in the US, but it is also the back-up power for wind farms when they aren't producing enough power on their own. All the massive refineries in the nation have their own power generation that is also run on gas turbines. Replacing natural gas as the main source of power in this nation isn't happening in the next 50 years.
  19. Present. But the Trump voters outnumber everyone else 10 to 1 in the man camps, service offices, and land offices.
  20. My final take on the oil comment and those who are concerned about PA now... https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/where-our-oil-comes-from.php PA doesn't even crack the top 15 in oil production. Also note that Democratic states CO, NM, IL, and CA all produce more oil than PA. What PA does produce a lot of is natural gas. Joe came out and said he isn't banning fracking. https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=46&t=8 This topic might be a rallying point for some, but I really don't think this moves the needle in a damaging way in PA. It certainly doesn't move the needle in NV, NC, GA, IA, WI, or AZ.
  21. That's because companies that shed crews during the '15 bust started shipping experienced crews around the nation rather than train locals like they did in the 00s. Most frac crews these days are imported from elsewhere. You'll get some jobs with the local service companies and some jobs from people maintaining the play after the drilling is done, but the it isn't like Pennsylvanians are making up the majority of the man camps, right now. With the advent of online public records, the same goes for the legal side of things, as well. An attorney in Texas can be licensed to practice in PA and get his title work from a land crew based out of Louisiana. The industry was already nomadic to begin with, but the lean times has upped that by many magnitudes higher.
  22. I made way more money in the industry under Obama/Biden than Trump/Pence. By a lot. Trump did nothing to bring the industry back and the average spot price wasn't much higher than $40, outside of a couple of spikes. I will repeat until I'm blue in the face that anyone who doesn't realize that the industry was healthier under Obama than Trump and truly believes that Biden will significantly damage the industry wasn't voting for Biden in the first place.
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