This is an excellent point.
This is where I'm at as well. Remember how good the media said Clemson and Bama were supposed to be? They look like complete shit. UGA? Not impressed. FSU? Don't make me laugh. I'll give you Oregon and, to a lesser extent, Ohio State - but we looked thoroughly mediocre on 8/30 and still significantly outgained them. If this Texas team can put it together on offense, they're going to be a tough out, specially when Colin Simmons gets going (which is definitely a "when" and not an "if"). Anyway, yes, the offense is still an "if," but I feel like a lot of people are completely discounting the possibility of them improving and I don't think we're even close to that being justified yet. There's plenty of talent there. Does that talent ever learn to play well together? I have no idea but I'm certainly not ready to write off the possibility.
That said, if the fucking OL and ST penalties don't get at least somewhat fixed, it's going to be a very frustrating year no matter who puts things together.