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Larry T. Spider

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Everything posted by Larry T. Spider

  1. Futures down across the board. Im going to make a simpletons bearish case for the next 6-7 months. Yall poke holes in it. Inflation is sticking around enough to prevent rate cuts that were somewhat priced into the market. Global unrest is going to persist for at least that duration. Issues with China arent going away. Ukraine/Russia is still going strong and now we throw in a Middle East showdown. Now to tie the two together. Oil prices are going to go up, which will have an inflationary effect on just about everything, further delaying rate cuts, and cementing a shit market for a while. Tell me how I’m wrong and we are all going to get rich in 2024.
  2. Texans won’t go for an income tax because certain groups have convinced people they will end up with high rates for property and income. Who knows, they might be right. I think increasing the gas tax and sales tax are more feasible, but also unlikely. At least those help the red politicians argue that “more people have a skin in the game”. Both act as inflationary though.
  3. Maybe in the vaguest way possible without mentioning that part of our area is already doing this….
  4. A lot of Wilco gets its water from lake Georgetown, which is supplemented with water pumped in from stillhouse hollow. Wonder if we could devise a larger system with non-force field lakes such as Whitney, which is currently 100% full. Also Belton is close and 75% full. Obviously this only works if they receive rain when we don’t.
  5. The pictures are quite sad. I have to assume that very few people rely on the lake for their main source or water, right?
  6. In this part of the world droughts end in floods. The lake will eventually be full again no matter what this summer or next brings. It’s just a matter of the prolonged pain until it happens. Sadly, most of the Austin population is completely oblivious to how this could play out in the very near future.
  7. I started this thread a month ago and we have gone from 38% full to 37%. Doomed.
  8. Can you turn that into something shorter like a haiku?
  9. I was going to say the same thing. No way these guys are getting deals if there is strong evidence.
  10. Lol at 500k being a humblebrag in the Austin area. It’s a 3/2 in the burbs.
  11. Got my Wilco appraisal. Went from 450k to 500k. Not sure whether to be annoyed that it went up that much or grateful that it’s at least 50k under market value. A pretty similar house just went for 600k.
  12. Might just be talking out of my ass here but maybe there’s a middle between backing cops that do heinous shit and getting rid of all police.
  13. First, no need to thank me. I quit after 15 years in public education. Currently work for a company that provides exactly the types of specialized classrooms you are talking about to districts. Most districts just don’t have the capacity to meet the increased demand over the years. Waaaaay more kids need these services than even 10 years ago. See the other thread about kids that’s blowing up. The number one reason teachers are leaving is exactly the scenario you outlined. They can’t teach. Number two is dealing with parents in relation to why they can’t teach. Throw in testing score pressure and needing a second job and we are getting a “hell no” from teachers. FWIW, most districts want to do inclusion in a non-disruptive manner where the sped kids have assistants with them. This allows them to take breaks and only be in the class when they are focused and ready to learn. The reality ends up looking like the teacher being a 3 ring circus master all day then fielding parent complaints at the end of the day. The assistants get the shit kicked out of them for $15 an hour so even if the district is trying to hire, they usually can’t. We can go back to self-contained classrooms for those kids, but then we have to pay for it. I recently wrote a proposal that was for fewer than 50 students and the cost was over 2 million a year. Now, we are taking on the toughest kids, many of which would be in a residential treatment facility without us. But most superintendents just aren’t going to write that check unless push comes to shove - ie the state getting involved.
  14. Is the Texas GOP’s aversion to forcing them into mental health facilities purely financial? My family is almost all republicans in the Austin area and they are all for it. Now I don’t get into how we are going to pay for it with them….
  15. If there is strong evidence of a person committing a crime and they are deemed unfit to stand trial, they should go to a state run mental health facility. They stay there until they can go to trial. Every major city should have at least one. It will be expensive, but that is the cost of not having psychos roaming the streets. There should be youth facilities as well to give these kids the around the clock care that they need. The most mentally ill child I ever worked with was completely incapable (at that time) of safely living in a home environment. She bounced around foster homes until a residential treatment facility in another city could take her in. It took a year of hell, worsening mental health, and a move to a completely new city to get help. Right now they just go to Dell children’s until they are deemed to not be a threat to themself or others then right back home.
  16. Ha, just my luck. Well, in that case, who would you call to have them looked at?
  17. Double pane, I assume aluminum. It’s ‘99 builder grade stuff. The locks have “GA” on them, which I assume is the manufacturer.
  18. We’ll just go to a 4 day week for students because it’s the only way we can convince people to work in these conditions. Yet another one of my customer districts just announced this today. It’s about to be extremely common. Remember when we kept warning about how bad it was for teachers? The resounding response was to quit crying and find another job if you don’t like it. Well, here we are….
  19. These issues usually start well before they are running around Austin with a machete on the streets. Typically, they were public school students with a special education label that severely limited consequences for disruptive, or even violent behavior. There are some limits, such as bringing drugs or a weapon on campus but the daily insanity is legally protected. I talk to special education directors at major districts all day for a living. The increase they are seeing in students that fit this profile is disturbing. Districts are not funded to hire a bunch of mental health therapists, and the ones that find the money can’t fill the positions. They are able to get some kids into residential or other treatment facilities but then are on the hook for the cost. I talked to a superintendent in another state that’s paying 100k per kid in some cases. When I was a principal, I shared 1 therapist with 5 other campuses. Regular school counselors are not equipped to deal with this level of need. Private schools aren’t taking these kids with their $10,000 voucher if we go that route. We need a school to treatment facility pipeline instead of the current school to the streets pipeline. The teachers deal with it until it’s the cops turn. It will take funding and changing laws, but the alternative is more people getting stabbed.
  20. One of the recent hail storms cracked a couple of side windows on the house. Looking to pay for it out of pocket and not mess with insurance. Any recs on who would take on a small job like that at a fair price? I’m in western Round Rock, just east of Avery Ranch.
  21. But then I have to piss a lot and flush the toilet more. Back yard it is!
  22. Are there any places to get water data to compare normal usage to things like SXSW week. The hordes aren’t watering lawns but that’s a shitload of extra showers and toilet flushes. I’m sure it doesn’t have any measurable impact but I find it interesting.
  23. Posted my Caesar’s review a couple of weeks ago but it’s pretty much what everyone here is saying. Outdated. The sad thing is that CET is in so much debt, I doubt it gets a major refresh anytime soon.
  24. The reason they don’t leave it at or over 100% full is because the risk of flooding. Usually the ground is saturated so it would take much to generate a lot of runoff into the lake. I do think they have brought it down a little too far in the past though. For most of Austin’s history, floods have been a bigger threat than drought, but it’s time to recalibrate.
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