Here’s the counterpoint:
1. Diaz doesn’t regain his fly ball stroke, doesn’t hit for power and is a league average catcher.
2. Walker slightly regresses.
3. Guillorme has only played more than 100 games in 1 season. With him playing against right-handed starters, he wilts later in the season and doesn’t hit for league average against righties.
4. Peña doesn’t improve on offense and throws 20 balls into the dugout behind 1b.
5. Instead of HRs, Paredes mashes a ton of hard hit singles into the LF wall.
6. Altuve regresses to his early years with respect to plate discipline and hits for 300 with no power.
7. Chas sucks and becomes unplayable. Meyers starts for over 100 games. Melton shows he’s not the answer in AAA.
8. Yordan plays less than 100 games due to injury.
9. Framber wilts under the pressure of pitching in a contract year and we get no relief from any of the pitchers rehabbing from TJ.
10. We get inconsistent Hader.
I really think the outcome is in between our 2 posts and the Astros win 90 games and the West.