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TXSooner518

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Everything posted by TXSooner518

  1. Yes, whoever finishes 2nd in East will go to title game. And you call it CFP odds. You're overstating the chances of a 1 loss P5 champ making it to the playoff (12-1 Oregon <> 12-1 Alabama), and understating the chances of a 1 loss non-champion/Notre Dame of making the playoff. So you think PSU is 68% to have one loss or less, but only 2% to make the playoff? I get that losing the tOSU game basically kills them, but it's crazy to say basically that they are about 3% to beat tOSU. FPI has Oregon at 18% to win out, so 31% to win out seems quite high, and again even if they win out, they are most likely not getting in. At USC and at Arizona State are quite losable games. There's no way they are 1/3 to sweep UW, USC and ASU on the road while also holding serve at home to Wazzu, Arizona, and their in-state rival. Wake has 0%, which is less than 1%, yes.
  2. Mizzou can't win the East (or go to the playoffs), they are on probation. There is a non-zero chance that the SEC misses the playoff, but it's more like 0.5%, not 26%. I'll be happy to lay 3 to 1 on the SEC having a playoff team for every dollar you want. You also have the ACC having a chance to send a non-Clemson team to the playoffs. LOLNO. Wake Forest could win out by 45-0 in every game, they aren't getting in. Also no way that Oregon is 31% to make the playoffs. Also you have Mizzou more likely to win out than UGA? LOLWAT. I also don't see how Penn State at this point would be less than 2%. Obviously winning at tOSU is a tall order, but if they do that, they would need to win the B1G title game, and go no worse than 2-1 against Sparty, Minnesota, Michigan (assuming Indiana/Rutgers are lock wins). FPI has PSU at 4.8% to completely win out, so obv finishing 12-1 would be higher than that. They have them 11.3% to win the B1G.
  3. Very fair. Tua rushing: 35 yds, 2 TD; Fields rushing: 283 yds, 8 TD. Don't think that comes close to bridging the stats gap, but always try to present the full accurate picture. And FWIW, I think Fields is a great QB, and wouldn't object to him winning it. Just objected to the idiotic notion that Tua was undeservingly just pushed forward as a name who didn't earn it on the field.
  4. Fields is putting up video game numbers, but Tua is "sadly" ahead due to popularity contest? Fields - 98/141 (69.5%), 1298 yards, 9.2 ypa, 18 TD, 1 INT, 187.5 rating, 12 sacks Tua - 134/182 (73.6%), 2011 yards, 11.0 ypa, 27 TD, 1 INT, 214.3 rating, 7 sacks Tua is obliterating Fields' "video game stats" in literally every single category. This goes along with your comments on the Ramsey trade and CeeDee not being a 1st round WR. Maybe read more and post less dude?
  5. All valid points as well. Also, really it was down to Ohio State vs. OU for the 4 spot, since the other 3 teams were all unbeaten. Sagarin had OU with the #12 schedule and tOSU with the #38, and both had the same record, both were conference champs.
  6. Yeah, it's really tough to say! A one-loss P5 champion has NEVER been excluded for a non-champion other than a 12-0 Notre Dame, which isn't quite the same thing. But that would be a really unique scenario that would give some insight into the factors (especially since both schools are tier 1-B "helmet schools" so no advantage there).
  7. One big difference is last year there was an undefeated Notre Dame to eat up a spot. Every team that made the playoffs last year beat every team they played. There weren't that many spots to go around. This year, ND will be 11-1 at best, and lost h2h to UGA, so they can't block UGA. So for a 1 loss UGA to be excluded, some other P5 conference would have to get 2 spots. The ACC and B12 and Pac 12 have literally 0.0 to get 2 spots this year. So the only way a 1 loss SEC champ UGA could be excluded would be in favor of a 1 loss non-champ from the SEC or B1G (in addition to also the 1 loss B1G champ). I Another is UGA lost to SCarolina in double OT. Ohio State got absolutely obliterated by 29 by a Purdue team that lost at home to Eastern Michigan and that wouldn't have even been bowl eligible without beating Ohio State (they then lost that bowl 63-14 to unranked Auburn). That's also the difference between Ohio State 2018 and OU 2015, Ohio State 2014, and the one-loss Clemson teams I mentioned, who each got in with a "bad" loss, none of whom are secsecsec. A 1 loss SEC champ Florida is very likely in, but not quite the lock that UGA would be. If OU, tOSU, Clemson all win out and LSU is 11-1 with only loss to Bama, it would come down to 11-1 LSU vs 12-1 SEC champ Florida. Does the title mean more, or does the fact that LSU beat Florida by 2 TDs (and won at Texas while Florida played two FCS schools) trump that? I would put LSU in in that spot, assuming a competitive loss to Bama.
  8. Literally 0% chance that a 12-1 SEC champ UGA is left out. SCarolina isn’t that good but not like UGA lost to Murray State. OU went in 2015 after losing to an awful 1-4 Texas. Ohio State went in 2014 after looking awful in a home loss to 6-6 Va Tech. Clemson went in 2017 after losing to a trash Syracuse and 2016 after loss to a very meh Pitt. There is an extremely unlikely path to zero SEC teams in the playoff but it surely doesn’t involve a one loss champ especially when that champ is a big name team.
  9. The barrage of gluttony this year was amazing. It helped given we had 5 of us. What I had/tried with reviews: Fletchers Corny Dog - duhhhh Fried Butter - every year breakfast staple for us. Cinnamon sugar/honey by far the best. Flamango Tango - first new item we tried. Really really good! Def on the comeback list. Sweet without being overpowering. Fried Frito Pie Bites - also a near-every-year for us. So good! Big Red Chicken Bread - I liked but didn’t love. Hassle to eat a wing while walking around and carrying a donut and beverage. Would eat for free, won’t buy again. Southern Fried Bourbon Bread Pudding - inside was a bit mushy (I mean it’s bread pudding), crust and sauce were really good Fried Chicken Skin - this was basically chicken pork rinds. Got a HUGE pile for the 12 coopins. Would only recommend as a sharer, otherwise you will be full and need water badly. Cowboy Corn Crunch - wanted to try when it was new but never did. This was great! Corn, jalapeño and bacon flavors perfectly balance. Fried Cuban Roll - another item at Magnolia that I wanted to try when new but didn’t. And it was also fantastic! Magnolia also has the Fried Bluebonnet which we didn’t get this year but did a few back and it is also tremendous. Will be hitting Magnolia more often! Cream Corn Casserole Fritters - another large portion for the cost. Can’t imagine eating all 4 of these solo. The breading is really good, like a hush puppy made of Fletchers batter, with great crunch. Not enough filling though. Was happy to eat one, but that was enough. Burnt End Burrito - this thing was great. Costly at $15 but solid portion and above expectations IMO. The onion rings were straight out of the fryer and really good rings honestly, nice and crunchy. Mostly pitched the rings bc we were near the end of the night and wanted to try a few more things, not get full on onion rings but they were good. Sweet Bakin Bacon - introduced last year, the bacon wrapped fried Twinkie is delish, def recommend! Cherish Erbert Champagne - got this last year as well, its a frozen cherry booze concoction. Awesome for anyone who likes sweet drinks, or to cool down on the hot day. Chicken Cordon Bleu Stuffed Waffle - I liked it pretty well, but wouldn’t pay again. The wife liked it a lot. I didn’t think the sauce complemented the rest of it. Fried Black Gold Truffles - delicious but super rich. Another item that is just made for sharing. One truffle was just right. Corn Dog Ale - guy I was with got it, and I tried a sip. The beer is actually pretty good! I don't have any use for the mustard rim though. Pictures below speak for themselves, too busy/distracted/drunk/etc. to get pics of all. The chicken skin pic, more than half of them are gone already.
  10. Puuuuuuke. 2015 River main, down to 32 players, I have a top 5 stack. Another big stack visibly tilts when he folds the previous hand, then opens the next hand. I have KK and get it in against him, he AA natch. GF had left to get me a soda, I’m cruising, she comes back to the scene of both hands face up and dealer counting down stacks. They had to count it 3 times to verify that he did have me covered. Same thing, having to just sit there and stare at the KK and AA. I was described in the live reporting as “visibly shaken” hahaha. #ThatsTrue
  11. At the fair? No. But there is a separate cash line that is faster. Not an issue buying at 730 or 8a, big issue late in the day. Have to pay an “order fee” to buy online even if you print at home.
  12. TRE shouldn't hurt you coming from Rowlett. You can take the Blue line from Rowlett, and then get off that and on the Green circulator at EBJ, West End, Akard, St. Paul, or Pearl/Arts. Then off the Green circulator at Fair Park Station. Blue train from Rowlett 10/12 schedule: https://www.dart.org/statefair/s601so12oct11am.htm Green circulator 10/12 schedule: https://www.dart.org/statefair/s602loop12oct11am.htm
  13. One of my favorite OU - Texas weekend stories: way back in the day, my dad was parking in the neighborhood for the game. Gets waved into this network of lawns, etc., pays the guy up front and they keep waving him into the next yard, the next yard, past other cars, until finally the last guy just waves him back out into the street, thanks for your cash.
  14. I would always do it. You paid $590 for 5k chips and now can pay $120 for 10k more. Weird structure.
  15. They do mention the special red ones. Don’t get on a southbound red marked Westmorelqnd. The special ones bypass a lot of stops and go right to MLK station. They have a specific Oct 12 schedule. Pull up the Oct 12 red line southbound schedule. The first special one leaves Parker Rd at 701. See how that one is the first one to skip stops and the first one to stop at MLK? All the ones on that schedule are the special ones.
  16. I’m disagreeing. In the immediate area around the Fair that’s right. Parking in the vicinity and walking, sure. Walking through downtown and Deep Ellum and Fair Park in areas no one is parking and walking naaaahhhhhh.
  17. The answer to 99.99% of questions that start “is it safe to walk from the fair to...” is hellllll no
  18. There is cash parking on site. We use it every year, and no problems at all if you arrive early. Dunno why people park in yards for the same cost other than arriving after lots are full?
  19. Riverfront deadends into Corinth, which you can turn left on and then follow it to Lamar, then right, etc. EDIT: Basically deadends, it continues on as a scraggly two lane for a bit. Turn left at Longhorn Ballroom.
  20. Derped it in changing the formatting. Thanks for catching!
  21. From AdjustedStats.com, Texas D has gone from #27 and #34 in defensive yards and point allowed per possession to #45 and #82. Defensive ypp from #22 to #79. The level of mental maneuvering to think the 2019 Texas D is better than the 2018 Texas D is beyond my ability to fathom. Texas O is better this year for sure. OU O yards per possession and play 2018: 54, 9.1 OU O yards per possesion and play 2019: 55, 9.7 OU O points per possession 2018: 4.52 OU O points per possession 2019: 4.49 All 6 numbers are #1 nationally. And you can't bring up schedule, that's the point of the adjusted stats. So both teams are better offensively this year (or possssibly OU is the same), Texas is worse on D this year, OU is better on D this year.
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