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TXSooner518

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Everything posted by TXSooner518

  1. The more teams you have, the more seeding matters, you start adding in dramatically weaker teams, byes, home games, etc. Yes, neutral site games between only 4 top teams doesn't make seeding matter as much. For example, in the model you listed, Memphis is a considerably easier game for LSU than Baylor and Oregon for tOSU and Clemson, despite it being razor-close on who deserves the 1 at least. Most observers think the 3 teams are pretty close power-wise, with Clemson's resume obviously considerably weaker. I said with all champs and only champs. That model doesn't have all champs and doesn't have 'only' champs. It has Baylor and UGA, who aren't champs. It is missing 4 teams who won their conference.
  2. A playoff with all conference champs and only conference champs will suck suck suck. Every OOC game is now an NFL preseason game. Fuck that nine ways from Sunday.
  3. You would still have to seed it, which dramatically impacts likelihood of winning, so I still say I'm right!
  4. The Giants were very obviously not better than the Patriots. They didn't even go 1-0 vs the Pats, they were 1-1. Again, you seem to have a hard time grasping that the best team doesn't always win. The Giants were the 2007 NFL Champions, but not the best team in the NFL in 2007. It's really not at all a hard concept. If you ran this year's CFP 1000 times, you would probably get a breakdown of roughly 300 LSU titles, 300 tOSU titles, 300 Clemson titles, and 100 OU titles. Whichever team wins this year won't prove to be the year's best team, but they will be the 2020 CFP Champion, which isn't exactly the same thing. Side not - giant LOL at you saying "why even play the regular season" while arguing that a 9-7 team was better than a 16-0 team, which beat that 9-7 team in the regular season. You're arguing AGAINST the validity of the regular season there. To Teddy Bear - NO LOSS MAXIMUMS AT ALL. They encourage pussy scheduling. Use the formula you advocate above, which considers SOS, MOV, etc., and if you're below a certain level, you're out.
  5. But that is the point. You're giving "the #1 team lost" as proof they weren't the #1 team. Also "playing it on the field" will by definition again include some subjective judgments about who the better teams are, for inclusion in the bracket. There is no way to do it otherwise, unless you want a 130 team playoff. Same thing happens in basketball, which settles its champ on the court, but still relies on a committee to decide who the best teams are for both inclusion and seeding.
  6. Being the best team doesn't mean you always win the games. A 60-40 edge would be a HUGE edge to have in a game between top 4 teams, and yet if the 1 seed is a 60/40 fave against every other team in the playoff, they only win the playoff 36% of the time. If you have a 53-47 edge on the other teams, you win the playoff 28% of the time. Probability is a bitch, and virtually no one in sports understands them.
  7. I'm not saying he deserves the award. I think the trip to NYC is deserved. Fair. Would have also liked to seen Hubbard get an invite. Fair points for sure. I will say he made multiple great plays throwing the ball in the B12 title game, including one where CD just couldn't quiiiiiiiite get his hands under it after Jalen kept the play alive and made a great situational throw, which allows OU to likely win in regulation if he catches it. He also threw the ball a ton, and very well, in the rally in Waco to save the season. And yeah, his toughness and leadership (being voted captain as a senior transfer says a lot, as does the sheer number of Bama fans who are rooting for him) to me do help elevate him as a player and make him deserving of the invit.e
  8. Jalen definitely had some turnovers at inopportune times. He did also, despite what WBT said, finish with a higher pass efficiency rating than every previous season in history (though behind 2019 Tua and 2019 Burrow). That rating doesn't include his 219/1255/18 TD rush stats (or his receiving TD!). His numbers, not just his helmet/hype, justify his inclusion, though of course Burrow will very deservingly win the award.
  9. No, that's not what I'm arguing. You aren't arguing (or at least weren't previously) that you wanted game results (and not team strength) to be the determining factor. You were arguing that there is no way to actually know which team is better if they haven't played each other, which is an idiotic stance. I disagree with solely results-based, and prefer a blend of analytics and win-losses, basically the most deserving of the best teams. But at least solely results-based is a defensible position, as opposed to the previous nonsense. What you were previously saying is in your hypo, who knows if Bama would win that game. Now you are saying, they would win, but their results don't justify inclusion, which I can't argue against, because that part is just difference of opinion.
  10. OK you keep ignoring the point. So let's go. Straight up no spread. Every game I win you pay me $100, every game you win I pay you $110. Free money for you since after all, these teams haven't played. No POSSIBLE WAY to know who is better except for figure skating horse shit right? They are all exactly 50/50, so you getting 110/100 is a GREAT deal for you!! Oh wait, you won't do it, because even you don't believe this bullshit, you just don't like it because a lot of top teams are in a conference that hurts your feelies. I get Bama, you get Michigan. I get LSU, you get OU. I get UCF, you get Marshall. I get Florida, you get Virginia. I get App State, you get UAB. I get Cincy, you get BC. I get Louisiana, you get Miami (OH).
  11. So you're saying if someone said "hey a college football team is going to play, if they win, you get $1 million, and if they lose, we shoot you in the face. You can have Baylor, Florida, or Alabama" that you would be like "herp derrrrp who's to say, they all seem equal, just pick one at random"? Bull fucking shit.
  12. No, I mean to decide if the P5/G5 champ automatically gets in. I would also use it for the 2 or 3 wildcards, yes. I would be more OK with losing the qualification cap on the P5 champ than the G5 inclusion. I would be even more OK losing the qualification cap if all 8 teams are seeded, rather than the conf champs getting the top 5 seeds, and you get some perverse result where the 4 seed gets the easiest 1st round game, because the 5 seed is trash UVA or some such, and then the 3 seed gets fucking Clemson in the first round. UGA has a very strong D that can shut down non-dynamic offenses. They did not shut down OU in 2017, Bama or Texas in 2018, LSU in 2019. UGA's offense is very pedestrian, especially against teams that they can't just overwhelm with talent. Georgia played 4 ranked teams this year. They scored 24, 23, 21, and 10 points, and also scored 19 against Texas A&M, 27 against Mizzou and 21 against Kentucky. Oh, and 17 in overtime against South Fucking Carolina. Sorry, this is not one of the 4 best teams in football, and only a fool would take them straight up against Alabama.
  13. Nope, I recognize that it's not a guarantee. See Mitch's post below. OU scheduled an away game at a P5 team that is frequently upper-tier, and a top G5 team, and both disappointed. Clemson tried to schedule a good game, I'm not blaming them for their OOC schedule really, though I question if they need Charlotte AND Wofford. But you put yourself in position by playing P5 home and aways (and real P5 home and aways, not Northwestern or Duke or Vandy or whatever). Sure, OU's OOC didn't work out this year. Luckily, there were only 4 P5 conference champs with 1 or less losses, so they didn't have to beauty pageant. If either Utah or Oregon loses one less game, they are in a tight battle either way. I think they go over Utah (whose OOC was worse) and Oregon (whose OOC was better) goes over them. I 100% guarantee that if Bama played UGA right now, Bama would be favored, yes. Every single power rating system has Bama > UGA. Common opponents: LSU - Bama L by 5, UGA L by 27 A&M - Bama W by 19, UGA W by 6 Tenn - Bama W by 22, UGA W by 29 Auburn - Bama L by 3, UGA W by 7 S. Carolina - Bama W by 24 , UGA L by 3 So among 5 common opponents (almost half the schedule), Bama outperformed UGA by 45 points (9 ppg), with each going 3-2. What sport are YOU watching, that you legit don't think Alabama is one of the 8 best teams this year? Not saying resume, saying team. What, in your opinion, given the above makes UGA better than Bama? I like qualifications for the autobid, but definitely not loss caps, that just encourages garbage scheduling. Make it a formula that incorporates humans/power ratings, which helps to incent tough scheduling.
  14. I feel pretty sure about it. Oregon started outside the Top 10 in the polls. The Pac 12 cannibalized itself, and the narrative would be that Oregon and Utah were 11-1, but neither had even played a ranked team between the two of them. Oregon got credibility by controlling the game with Auburn, especially when Auburn proved to be a very good team. Similarly, I think OU jumps Utah if Utah beats Oregon (not positive, but think so, unless Utah smoked them), but if Utah had a really good OOC win, that changes things. And also with Clemson, if they lost they were toast, but if they had beaten a top 15 team OOC, that would have helped insulate against a loss. Last, we will always be arguing about style points/etc. Why should Memphis go to the 8 team playoff over Boise or App State? Or let's say we are discussing wild cards. Should UGA's SEC title game loss put them back behind Bama? I mean, if not, we are punishing UGA for making the game and rewarding Bama for not. But should we ignore a pretty conclusive data point on whether UGA is elite/better than Bama? What % of people would take UGA over Bama on a neutral field right now? I definitely would not.
  15. LOLOLOL. This argument is absolutely ridiculous. Again, if you really think this, you should just blindly mash bets on every underdog. I mean, OU hasn't played LSU, and they each beat their common opponent by 7, so OU +11 is free money since it's absolutely a coinflip! If Memphis played tOSU in an 8 team playoff, you think it is 50-50 as to which team wins, since after all, we have no way to know that tOSU is better than Memphis? No one is dumb enough to believe that. Then teams with that meta-strategy can't bitch when it blows up in their face. If Baylor had beaten a P5 team in 2014 instead of 3 total bottom-feeders, they very well might have gone over tOSU. If OU had played Tulsa instead of tOSU in 2017, they might just have been watching tOSU in the playoffs instead. Georgia scheduling and beating ND in 2017 and this year kept them in the playoff convo. Auburn beating Oregon would have gotten them in for sure at 11-2. Sure, if you're a West Virginia or Tennessee trying to rebuild to get back into the upper levels, scheduling some wins to build confidence, get bowls, etc., makes sense. But it's not gonna get you into the playoffs if there is a debate.
  16. People keep saying this. Oregon wasn't penalized for scheduling Auburn. They were penalized for LOSING to Auburn. If they had beaten Auburn, they still would have been in great playoff shape even after losing to Arizona State. If they played South Idaho State, and then lose to Arizona State, now they are gonna be behind OU, etc., in the 1-loss debate. Instead, since they played (and really outplayed despite the final score) Auburn, they were ahead of OU in the pecking order, and if they had won out, I'm quite sure they go over OU if both finished 12-1. And that's ONLY because of playing Auburn. OU got a similar boost in 2017 for winning in Columbus that they might not have gotten if they had played Tulsa instead.
  17. TXSooner518

    txsooner518

    Congrats on the bet! Cool gesture, donation made. This got a solid LOL, nice nice. I would take it again all day, twice on Sunday. No way they were 67% to go unbeaten the rest of the way. This is a damn, damn good team though. LOL come on man. "Still hasn't surfaced"? It hadn't even been 36 hours since the season ended, much less since this thread was posted. I have paid multiple members of this board 5 figure payouts on investments, don't think I'm headed to Mexico over a $100 bet lol.
  18. I think him having flush draw would be much more likely if the board didn’t have Ah. If it’s Ax2h3h he could make this raise with Axhh because he is super happy to play for it all. Reopening betting and with a sizing that is unlikely to get all folds with just king high I don’t think would be great or common.
  19. Call and check-jam turn > bet all your chips >>>> make it 350.
  20. Taking kiddos to Flix Brewhouse on the 17th for their introduction to this classic. Older one's name is Audrey, at least partially inspired by the Vacation series. Can't wait!
  21. It’s pretty dumb there too. Team goes 17-1 in a rinkydink conference, then misses the tourney because a team that went 8-10 runs hot in 40 minutes. I think in those leagues the winner of the conf tourney should play the winner of the reg season for the bid at least. That way you earn a mulligan by being best for the entire season. Plus, those one-bid leagues aren't taking a spot away from a team with a legit shot to win, since so many teams get into the tourney. If we are having an 8 team playoff, wasting a spot on a jabroni team like UVA really sucks. Would much rather include a Penn St, Oregon/Utah loser, OU/Baylor loser, UGA, or hell, even Memphis.
  22. If you have wild cards, you still are using opinion to choose the national champ. If you don't have wild cards, every OOC game is now a worthless NFL preseason game. Virginia, even if they managed to beat Clemson this weekend, has no business at all in the playoffs.
  23. Exactly. It's also completely idiotic to punish LSU for losing to UGA, but you would happily let them in if they lost to Arkansas but won the SEC title game. Or punish LSU for having to play UGA while Clemson plays the 45th or so best team in the country, and tOSU plays a team they already beat by 30. Just take the 4 teams that best combine "best team" and "most deserving resume" and stop trying to arbitrarily impose restrictions or limitations. The NFL playoffs would be dramatically better if no NFC East team was in this year. Instead, we are going to include one and not only that, make a team that is objectively better travel on the road to play that team. 50 win NBA teams have been left out of the playoffs for sub-.500 teams. And some people want to add that element to college football, it makes no sense.
  24. Great visit today. Champ hooked me up with some of the daily special, green chili pork stew. Was a bit hungover and that hit the spot. Ordered the brisket grilled cheese with the blue cheese bacon potato salad. Got a link of sausage and a side of collards. Everything was great. The sausage was reminiscent of John M sausage, just less spicy. It came with some pickled onions and a mustard sauce. A bite of sausage, onion, sauce and greens all together was phenomenal. Anyone in the Galveston area needs to hit this place up!
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