Jump to content

TXSooner518

Legacy Members
  • Posts

    2281
  • Joined

  • Days Won

    2

Everything posted by TXSooner518

  1. KQ hand is fine. Folding is fine against a good reg, we have decent offsuit big cards out of position. 3betting is good against someone who loves to ISO limpers. Don't build strategy around what would or would not have worked against your opponent's actual hand. Can't fold river as played here. JJ hand, I actually think calling is OK pre. Again, we are here to make money, not win pots. We can play our hand in position, and we are under-repped. If it comes two big cards on the flop, cool, we check-fold and on to the next. We aren't ENTITLED to win the pot just because we have jacks. Also, being concerned that people will call pre with Kx or Ax if we raise smaller is OK. We want our opponents to make a mistake, and calling 3bets with raggedy aces is a mistake, esp since we aren't paying them off when they flop an ace. What hand is the reg making it 11x to open first in the pot? He went 7.5x over a limper with AQ. You also imply that he is shoving AK pre, and that you are folding if he shoves pre. If you make it $120, he jams for $450 effective (you don't say but I assume he covers?), and all others fold, we now have to call $330 to win $655, so almost exactly 2 to 1. We have over 36% equity against a range of QQ+, AK, so folding is now a mistake even if his range is that tight. We also are just turning our hand into a bluff if we are going to raise big enough that only hands that beat us stay in, and wasting the value of our hand. I also think 3b to $80-90 is good/fine, as it lowers the SPR and has people calling without proper odds, but doesn't make everyone fold everything we beat, and doesn't lock us into calling off if the original raiser rips it. Also, him checking KK 3 times there is almost surely terrible, depending on what the board is. Are you really checking back AA or QQ twice there? T5 hand bet bigger on the flop. River changes nothing, she doesn't have T8 there (tight lady isn't calling T8 on 557r ever never). I dunno what card is a spade on the flop, but she isn't calling the flush draw on turn then checking when it hits on river, she would bet. Bet river.
  2. Sheds some light on the obvious self-esteem issues illustrated where she was sending pics posed on demand to a married dude that she wasn't even carrying on an ongoing relationship. Also obvious self-esteem/insecurity stuff on the posts.
  3. Her social media posts and texts are deplorable. That said, ever hear someone say "boy I'd kill some sumbitch if I caught em fucking my wife"? Even if someone said that, and they then subsequently did walk in on someone fucking their wife and shot them dead, they would very likely get convicted of "sudden passion."
  4. I think there is a reasonable argument for "sudden passion" which kind of goes to the overall circumstances and the quick (and bad) decision to use the force. She would still not be eligible for probation, but would be a 2nd degree felony, with a sentence range of 2-20. Same tight restrictions on parole.
  5. Not according to what I'm reading. Art. 42A.056 of CCP says no eligibility for jury-ordered probation if convicted of PC 19.02 (murder). GC 508.149 says no parole if convicted of PC 19.02. EDIT: Wait that was "mandatory supervision" on GC 508.149, not parole. Yep, 1/2 for parole. So we were each right once, wrong once. 😁
  6. She's not eligible for probation or parole, so I don't think this is possible.
  7. If disallowing opinion testimony about what the defendant's state of mind might be after the defendant already testified as to what her state of mind actually was, is reversible error, then we are back to the CJ system being totally fucked.
  8. I specifically said 11-1 to account for the UGA scenario here. UGA would be 12-1 in that spot, just like Texas or OU, which is a different calculus. I think it would then come down to a full schedule analysis, which can't be done until the games are played. Excellent post by Swandered, BTW.
  9. Seems very very very standard to not let in opinion testimony as to the actual question of fact the jury must answer. Otherwise, when does that end? Let's have the state call 500 experts that say it's their opinion it is unreasonable and the defense call 500 experts that say it is reasonable.
  10. Thanks Johnny! Pleasure dealing with you as well, see ya in Dallas!
  11. Gonna be REALLY difficult, maybe impossible, for the defense to establish self-defense in response to an unarmed man in his own apartment without the defendant''s testimony.
  12. Well, that's pretty clearly not true given that he is leading every Heisman Trophy poll. Also, again, thousands of QBs have played "nobody" and not done what JH has done thus far. Why?
  13. Cool, booked. Respect for backing up your stance!
  14. Texas Penal Code 9.32 (b) The actor's belief under Subsection (a)(2) that the deadly force was immediately necessary as described by that subdivision is presumed to be reasonable if the actor: (1) knew or had reason to believe that the person against whom the deadly force was used: (A) unlawfully and with force entered, or was attempting to enter unlawfully and with force, the actor's occupied habitation, vehicle, or place of business or employment; (B) unlawfully and with force removed, or was attempting to remove unlawfully and with force, the actor from the actor's habitation, vehicle, or place of business or employment; or (C) was committing or attempting to commit [aggravated kidnapping, murder, sexual assault, aggravated sexual assault, robbery, or aggravated robbery.] NO evidence entered of A, B, or C.
  15. Orrrrr maybe people agreeing you can't just walk into another person's home and shoot them dead while they stand there unarmed? I mean, it's not like these facts need some type of jury nullification or something.
  16. OK I will put up $100 to your $200, I'll take tOSU does not go unbeaten through the B1G title game. That would reflect odds of 67% that they go unbeaten, an amazing deal for you at your odds!
  17. What are you basing "Wisconsin isn't that great" on? Also, tOSU gets them at home, but then again at neutral field. Also, Michigan is overrated, but absolutely is a top 50 team. You're being a bit absurd. What do you think tOSU's % chance of going unbeaten is? In the 5 years of the playoff, there have been 6 unbeaten teams make it (30% of playoff teams). 4 of the 6 unbeaten teams were either the ACC champion or Notre Dame with an ACC-heavy schedule. Zero teams in the playoff era have won the PAC, B1G, or B12 unbeaten.
  18. Bump for anyone who has tried any of these or other items, we need some reviews please, it's getting close!
  19. Nah. Felony conviction with prison time will do it, especially given that it will keep her from ever having a firearm or being LEO again, which should both occur.
  20. People dramatically overestimate how easy it is to go unbeaten (if you don't play in the ACC and are named Clemson). Ohio State looks really fucking good, but they still play Wisconsin at least once, likely twice. Whisky is a very good football team. Even if you think Ohio State is 90% to beat Whisky, they lose one of the two games almost 1 time in 5. The combo of Sparty, Penn State, and @Michigan is also a trifecta of games that they can lose if the other team plays up and Ohio State plays down. If you think tOSU is 95% to beat Sparty, 95% to beat PSU, 95% to beat Michigan, 90% to beat Whisky, and 100% to win its other 3 games (NW, Md, Rut) (these numbers are all higher than reality, some much higher, BTW, just for demonstration), then tOSU still loses a game over 30% of the time. FPI says tOSU is the #2 team with #1 overall efficiency, and also has them at 37% to win out.
  21. It isn't in response to this case. My job is teaching the law to judges, and so many areas of the law are unnecessarily antiquated and complicated. It's time to move into this century, and that includes not calling crimes things that require 12 of 12 jurors to revamp what they think words mean to avoid murderers getting off.
  22. No QB in history has posted a rating over 245 in more than 2 games in an entire season. He's 4 for 4. Are you saying no QB in history has played 2 teams as soft as those in history in a single season, and a dozen could all of a sudden do that? Sure it's against an admittedly not great lineup, but still 2 P5s and a decent G5 in there. Tua hasn't done it, and isn't he surrounded by NFL players playing soft teams?
  23. They don't HAVE to disprove that she had a reasonable belief that she was in her apartment. If the belief she was in her apt is found to be reasonable, the state still wins if her use of force, despite her belief, was unreasonable. I actually think the second is much more likely where they win.
×
×
  • Create New...