
horn4life
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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
It's my parents house on Lake Belton. House had a toilet supply line failure, so flooded, and then got brushed by a tornado. So there is a fair amount of starter money. It's almost 30 years old, so dated. They had parquet flooring so they got decent coin for that. The original contractor who was the original builder flaked, and because we still had a second story full of stuff (while my mom was passing away) I started the renovation. Tore out all the doors, re-sheet rocked the tear out, demoed out the downstairs bathrooms, and kitchen demo will be next once my Sis helps me get all the shit out of there. The only way I would rent it is if it does not sell. And the big hesitation there is because it's on a septic system. My original plan was to furnish it out, and make it a 30 day plus rental. But I think done right it will sell, and for top dollar in the area. Then it's a clean deal for the estate, and I can get my extra pop at closing. And while I love my sister, she is a pain in the ass on most any decision making. So basically a flip. My Dad is 93 and if he passed then the 30 day rental option might rise to the top? -
All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
Off the current finance topic, but what level of value do you guys put on appliances in selling a home? I am going to completely gut and remodel a kitchen and am trying to decide whether to go higher end on appliances, and say convert from a 30" cooktop to a $36" range for example. Only thing that sucks is electric only, but currently layout is 30 inch cooktop and 27" double ovens, and a microwave eating space on the counter. I feel like the expectation is that there should be two ovens in the house, and a built in microwave somewhere. After a quick look I think I have a Bosch, Thor, Kitchenaid, Whirlpool/GE mental ranking. And I honestly have no idea if Thor is worth a crap or not, just saw some of their stuff on the costco site that was a midpoint in price? I am thinking of reconfiguring and going with a slide in 36" range, in place of the 30 inch cooktop, and keeping the vent in the same place. Mainly, because I like the look of a larger hood with a 14ish foot ceiling. Then filling in with either a double wall oven/microwave combo, or a microwave drawer with a wall oven on top. Mainly to keep utilize the existing electrical. I sort of think you need that second oven for entertaining and it's sort of expected in higher end builds. Or is my perception wrong here? ALSO - Do I spring for a matching fridge from a staging/turn key perspective? Or just leave fridge space empty? Thanks in advance -
Auto window replacement - Austin - not windshield
horn4life replied to boilerhorn's topic in Can You Help Me With This?
I have had good luck with Auto Glass Solutions on Burnet north of 183. Don't come to you, but you make an appointment and in and out quick. Also was very affordable from my recollection. -
All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
So a couple pages back, we were talking affordability and the rising costs of insurance as one of the factors hurting home buying. California has brought into focus the same problems all the southern coastal states, more claims and insurers leaving those markets. From an underwriting perspective WTF happens when houses can't get insurance? I assume SOL, unless they can get into some state insurance of the last resort? In Cali I think that number is $3 million. And a lot of those burnt homes are worth more than that. Do they have to self insure somehow? As I assume no bank will lend on anything not insured. -
Depends on how far out. I am wondering if this exuberance sustains though the week. A week seems like an eternity so far in January.
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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
Core CPI definitely going the right direction. Market roars on some good news. That MMI jumped up to 224 with 7.09 rates. That MMI number seems out of whack against a rising rate? But .2 vs .3 core month over month CPI is a good thing for the market and for rates! -
Yeah I trimmed PLTR... this week near the lows. Still up, but as you said I got skittish. Good points on UVIX. Especially the erosion in rebalancing! The exuberance of 2.8-3.2 inflation data makes me wonder if a slight nudge in the other direction would have had the market react?
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I don't complete disagree, but what will we know on the 21st-30th?. My point is uncertainty does not normally bring additional dollars into the market. As every trade in the market is the result of two people both feeling that the exact opposite outcome is more likely than not. And they want to bet on it!!! If... I think January 20th will not bring much clarity at all. I think it will bring a slew of executive orders not unlike a firehose. Which I think is going to be difficult for the market to digest as well. (my own personal opinion is the markets will react negatively to this additional lack of clarity). I view January 20th as more a point of clarity, about how very, very difficult it's going to be at least in the short term for most investors to feel the upside "if" is more risk than the downside "if?" My perspective is that we may not actually have much true clarity until March? And I see that as downward rather than upward pressure. AGAIN the one factor I wish I knew more than anything is how much sideline money will view January 20th as an inflection point to come into the market? Do investors view the 20th as a point of clarity? IF so the market should move upward if the clarity is good. But the two scenarios of negative clarity, or continued uncertainty are both negatives. Sort of the Darrell Royal of throwing a pass, where you have to weigh the interception and incomplete, against the completion. Two things are bad. When the clarity comes, the predictability will come. I just think we are in for a period of greater uncertainty than normal, and I don't see real clarity for another 60 days if it's positive clarity.
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Well when you guys figure out how to eliminate the "IF" from market prediction statements please let me know! Instead perhaps I should be asking how many of you guys have fairly large hedges against the market right now. I am considering betting strongly against the market and paying a big cap gain bill to do so. So "if" you guys can help me eliminate those pesky "ifs" out of my forward looking analysis, that would be particularly helpful. 😉
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Well I definitely should have bailed more on my PLTR. BUT my UVIX has been offsetting the losses on my remaining shares. I can't decide if I sell it all and eat a big cap gain. Or hold and risk potentially watching the need for Cap gain taxes slowly erode? I am sort of thinking thought I love PLTR long term, I have seen it ride high then collapse as well. Look like the momentum is against it now. And that's not a good place to be on a high multiple like PLTR. I want to hold, but when I see UVIX surge, and PLTR wane... I am starting to wonder where the good news is gonna come in the next few weeks? We will have by this time next week a slew of Executive Orders that will be difficult for the market to digest with any certainty. We are going to see confirmation of some of the least qualified political appointees this country has ever seen. (IMHO at least on paper)The average American won't even realize this, but the big hitters in the market will. My only question in my head is whether there is enough financial exuberance from the Republican investor side to overcome the instability and unpredictability directly in front of us? I think taking losses, is where the rubber will hit the road on this exuberance surrounding deregulation, and lower taxes. IF it becomes clear that the Trump Bump, is actually the Trump Slump? Yikes! So financially we have unpredictability in the market mainly among inflation concerns, in large part because of lofty evaluation risk. We are going to see a confirmation of what I think most everyone would call disrupters at most positions. Then we are supposedly going to get the "mother of all reconciliation bills!" Which I fear the market will see as the largest deficit producing legislation this country has ever seen. Which I in turn, would assume will add to inflation fears? Or will the certainty of a single monster bill be viewed as a positive by the market? A single large bill might be a debt buster, but also might give the market a better look at future predictability? Anyhow a very unpredictable and skittish market right now. When my hedge is moving toward becoming my big dog, I wonder if my hedge isn't actually where I should be moving more and more of my chips? My big fuck up. last week was not buying WBA options (walgreens) after their epic beatdown, before they announced earnings. As well as not trimming my PLTR position more and adding even more to UVIX. I added a little more UVIX. But I can't decide if I should move complete to risk on? Seems like that's where things are drifting right now?
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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
It probably will not be that easy, but I very much appreciate the offer! -
All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
I figured it would be somebody close to you who had a buyer for an inherited house, and might want to save realtor costs. Otherwise too much potential for conflicts, unless it was somebody close to you that you have personal history with. Most folks don't even know for example attorneys can write RE contracts. Only reason it even came to my mind is once we get my Dad's lake house remodeled I intended to have an open house, as many of the neighbors have expressed and are curious about the remode. So it's possible someone might make an acceptable offer before we list it. And I had talked with a guy in our neighborhood who moved a couple doors down a few years ago to a very similar house. And I was wondering how it was worth it with all the closing costs, and he mentioned having an attorney write the contract. The older neighbors were having a garage sale and they asked about the house. it was a good deal for both of them. And it was organic, not agent driven on either side. Plus I guess the last thing you want to be known for to realtors is a guy cutting into their business! I didn't really think about that aspect. -
Quinn "La Joya" Ewers - The Man The Myth The Mullet
horn4life replied to Coach pop a bitch's topic in Football
My single biggest complaint with Sark and Ewers, is that in the college football game you have to at least have the defense consider the QB might run. Might he get blown up on that naked bootleg? Sure. But he might scamper harmlessly out of bounds and move the sticks! That then slows the pass rush just a millisecond, with a slight look to the QB on a rnning play. Sark should have taken a tendency of no concern for Ewers legs by the defense, and make them pay. It's also hard to have a truly dominating running game at the college level IMHO, if you don't have a QB who is a running threat. That's the secret sauce to saving seasons, and national championships. It's the extra guy the defense is forced to scheme for, otherwise it's 11 v 10. We got close. It could have been very, very bad had we not recovered our fumbles. Really fucking bad. Still Ewers managed to pull some shit out of his ass, just to get us past ASU. and you can't blame the kid for Sark starting him. I dare say that I am very, very glad we pulled off the ASU win. Because had we lost that one, OSU would have rolled the shit out of them, and a lot of the shine of the season would have mentally tarnished. IMHO. A tip of the hat to Quinn for helping us get so close twice! As i have told a lot of folks over time. Sometimes at the top levels the other guys are pretty good too. And they can also make plays! Let's see if we can get another step forward with next years crew. We are a shit ton closer than we were just a few short years ago. Hook'em! -
All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
Just out of curiosity, how often do you combine your ability to write an RE sale contract as an attorney, and provide lending? Seems like that could be a sweet spot, for RE investors trying to minimize transactional costs? Or do you avoid the lending if you write the contract? Just curious. -
All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
Hopium, I like that one. I would not be surprised to see 5.5% first. But I also think that the Fed may pivot. In a capitulation to save the RE industry. I almost wrote something on this earlier, but it was an interesting take on why the Fed will capitulate. I can't remember the exact words regarding housing starts, but it was basically like a collapse. Might have said negative? Then he said the extinctions of additional supply would be a potential more inflationary issue, rather than core inflation. This economy is rolling from a hiring perspective, and that eliminates the normal downward rate pressures for the Fed. But there is still.... Hopecaine... -
All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
I expect chaos. Trump is now looking at declaring an economic emergency to enable his tariff scheme uninhibited by the normal guide rails. Mortgage Market Index fell again to a truly dismal 178.4 against a 6.99% interest rate national average. I am fascinated by predictions of spending reductions, from the same group that blew the biggest hole in the budget any of us have ever seen(before covid). The plan currently is to add $500 billion in deficit spending ANNUALLY to extend the tax cuts that blew the hole in the budget to begin with. So you need to find $500 billion annually from either revenue streams or cost cutting just to get to even? That $500 billion in additional annual borrowing cost may actually be higher, if interest rates do not recede. Where folks see spending cuts coming from is beyond me at this point... The one place where I think we could make big changes would be in the military budget. As legacy spending technologies that are rapidly becoming obsolete does present an opportunity. But beyond that? Hard for me to see downward pressure on rates with what is likely coming. -
Come in, work hard and dedicate yourself to your physical and academic future at Texas... it will literally change your life! The opportunity is there, you just have to decide that nothing, but nothing is gonna get between you and becoming your best. Welcome to the fold. And remember first will come the pain, then will come the gain! Hook'em!
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Thanks All - I was aware of the 60 day turnaround period, before penalty. Very good thinking on the ability to borrow in the 401K. Vanguard was also one of my first thoughts as I am familiar with some of their funds. Thanks for the detailed response. Dollar Cost averaging was what I was telling her to do. When she finds a stock she likes, buy a little bit every month. What was the old Peter Principle something about investing in what you see in your industry before the rest of the market notices. My other Pharmacist Daughter was all over LLY when it was barely over $300 for example. The 5 year Roth restriction was one I just realized today doing a little research. Sort of locks her in to this as a long term deal. Which is how I think she will view it. I would guess she will make around $60K+ working 3 shifts a week. And I know she will max out to at least the contribution match. VERY GOOD point about how long it takes to vest for the Employee matching contributions! That is something I had not thought to tell her to think about. I figure she is going to look at a couple aspects of nursing before settling in on what she wants to do long term. So there may be a bit of transience the next few years job wise. So maybe one of the best things about a Roth might be the regular paycheck contributions into it. No matter where she was working. If she really got into a bind my wife and I could probably help her out financially, but she has been very independent financially, and I expect that to continue.
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Thanks All - I was aware of the 60 day turnaround period, before penalty. Very good thinking on the ability to borrow in the 401K. Vanguard was also one of my first thoughts as I am familiar with some of their funds. However they apparently have exited the individual 401K business, and only have IRAs. She's barely working full time as she knocks out the last semester of her BSN, so this year will likely be the lowest tax year she will have. And if there is a real emergency she can withdraw any contributions tax free. She also may travel to other states to work, and putting money into a Roth with direct stock investment would be good for her to learn with. I was completely unaware of the inability to access converted rollover 401K dollars via the loan process, if moved to employers new 401K! So individual 401K or Roth is what it sounds like.
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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
It's that middle one... -
OK I'm too busy and I saw some notice regarding my daughter's old 401K with her former employer. I guess she quit early last year and the termination just caught up to the 401K folks, that I also think just recently changed. Anyhow if she does nothing, I think they send her a check. Which might be too big a temptation. It's not a lot of money maybe 10-12K, but better to let grow. She's finishing her Nursing Degree and just changed jobs, so tossing it into a new employer program (if is that possible) is a no go. So wonder if anyone has some device on where to park the money? I also thought about converting it to a Roth but from above you can see I don't shit shit about converting one. But maybe an early tax hit now, for tax free later and more flexibility in offerings? So thoughts? Suggestions? Warnings? all appreciated.
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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
When you have a 2.89% mortgage and do not have to get the equity out of the home, you can do WTF you want. What I would be very, very curious about is if those houses that come on and off actually sell for that higher price? Or are these the sort of listings that I sort of view as "non-listings" as the price they list as has no chance of closing. Now different story if they are getting that higher number! But are they? You are actually sort of describing the scenario of my daughter and her husband. Did really well on a transfer via shell on both their house and a rate buy down that they are 2.75% I think, and had enough cash for the down that they didn't need a double close. So they can do whatever they want. But if they HAD to sell? Then if the house does not sell and they need the equity? Only choice is reduce price. If no need for equity simply rent the thing forever. -
All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
Right now I view rates in a Catch 22 scenario. For rates to really move downward some bad economic shit nearly has to happen. The soft landing has already occurred, and inflation is the Mortgage rate boogeyman. When I look at the dreaded "stagflation scenario," I fail to see how the affect of the Trump policies that have been proposed that do not have an upward effect on inflation, stalling any governmental rate cuts. And certainly not getting the 10 year headed in the right direction. Now it the policies that have been proposed are muted, or not of the magnitude floated then my suppositions my be flawed. I view deficits getting worse as an absolute certainty, along with inflationary Trump policies in the worst case staglation scenario. My biggest concern is a stock market collapse leading the way to panic, and a shift of the American consumer to austerity. Then all the bad things like CC defaults, upside down Commercial RE market, no interest in controlling the deficit push us to a real bad place. Hope like holy fucking hell this is not the case. Because that means that there will be a worldwide recession, and we will all be fucked. ON THE UPSIDE - Jim Cramer was talking this morning about how at some point the sellers who need to sell will have to capitulate and lower their price to induce a sale. Which is the flip side of an interest rate decrease, from a monthly affordability perspective. That has been the historical pattern over time. And if you need to sell a home, price or incentivizing a lower rate buy down are about the only ways to move a house that is not selling. it's the COMBO of sky high prices that have become sticky (too sticky IMHO) and the higher rates that are strangling the market. A little give on either end, would go a long way in helping the industry as a whole. I do think that price capitulation won't happen until late Spring. Simply as when you have uncertainty in the immediate future and you are optimistic then you tend to want to wait and see what shakes out. It's natural human instinct. Expectations of the ability of sellers to get that higher price from the recent past, and buyers whose expectation of that lower interest rate from the recent past are bumping heads. Eventually one side or the other will capitulate. But the idea that prices are gonna come down due to increased supply, and interest rates are gonna come down to offset the higher prices, seem very unlikely to happen together. The change will lead with buyer and sellers both slightly capitulating, and the we will begin to see the MMI move upwards off it's horrific lows. I am hoping my dark thoughts will be eclipsed on the deficit and inflationary front. If that is the case then you can toss everything I wrote above in the trash! -
For me nothing but a big tip of the hat to Scatteboo. You have to admire his dragging himself up to this level of play. Do I think it was stupid to say he was the best back in the country before the game? Same for Levitt, in that it is ALWAYS stupid to talk smack about your opponents before a game. Because there is plenty of time after the game to do the same thing! Show you are better on the field! I think it is honestly hard to say that Levitt did not outperform Ewers. Hell, he would have scored on about 4 runs if we was the UT QB the way the Arizona defense was ignoring Ewers as a threat with his legs. But back to Scatteboo, that mofo left every bit of what he had on the field. Kid showed his toughness, and if Duece Vaughn has a spot on Sundays certainly some team will take a chance on Scatteboo. It was the most disconcerting feeling, watching this young man kick ass, as I lost respect for Sark in not reacting to the defense ignoring Ewers as any sort of running threat. Could have called a naked boot at least. That opened the door for Scatteboo to have a fantastic second half against the good guys. Kid is arrogant, but what badass kid isn't to some degree? But even as disaster loomed closer and closer, and the choosing of Longhorn scapegoats was beginning, I could not keep shaking my head in amazement, and he got pounded relentlessly by our defense and kept going as long as his body could. Good example to any athlete of truly giving it your all. I think Taaffe's comment that the guy veers to deliver the blow, and later having Scatteboo do exactly that says an awful lot about this guy. I personally am gonna root for him going forward. And hope to see his cocky little bowling ball ass in the NFL
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Well we found out that the folks that were buying Tesla, now are not driving demand any longer. With a 1.1% decline in sales for the first time in 9 years. I know that the long Tesla play is governmental influence and roxotaxi's that do not yet exist. But isn't the fundamental business of car companies selling cars? Too early for me to make a hard bet against Tesla, but where are the sales gonna come from now that the brand has lost it's appeal to so many who were buying Teslas?
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