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henrygandorf

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by henrygandorf

  1. let me tell you about the scorpion and the toad…
  2. the best argument against democracy is a five minute conversation with the average voter.
  3. honest answer - because their policies suck and are generally unpopular. also it's not last minute. fear and obstruction is all they know.
  4. if trump wins kansas by 5, it's all over but the crying.
  5. not sure why he said "weird", when "unexpected" or "surprising" might fit better. he's a dem, so he didn't mean weird as in shitty or suspect. separately, my nephew is a senior at michigan and wanted to go to kamala's rally tonight, but didn't feel like waiting in line for several hours. so according to my group text, there is currently a pledge in a folding chair with his laptop near the front of the line. this kid's got a future.
  6. i have no doubt that r's are going back to voting early, which used to be the trend. as it's been stated, it will likely cannibalize their day-of voting, but that's not what's important to me. turnout is all that matters. a few of your earlier posts implied that the trends are easily identifiable as pro-r and anti-d don't tell the real story, but certainly seemed to have been lapped up by those hoping to hear it. the rise of mail-in voting states + reversion of gop voting early makes it harder to predict, especially when compared to 2020, which was a one-off. what is easier to predict is turnout. anyone who thinks higher turnout favors trump is kidding themselves.
  7. big fan of “this you?” tweets. obviously.
  8. but if he loses one more time, these people will all suddenly have spine implant surgery?
  9. you can buy contracts now, but they pay off…in january? what’s going to happen in january to alter the results?
  10. having followed the pa firewall storyline the past couple weeks, it will be fascinating to see how it plays out and if the predictions hold. what i'm most curious about is the registered gop voters and what the haley->harris numbers look like. all the polling (so far) has suggested that kamala is getting more of the gop votes than trump is getting of the dem votes (though not by much). the "party-swap" votes are not factored in to the firewall numbers, and if kamala just wins those by 1-2 points, that could add some much-needed cushion. while i do agree that 70/30 sounds aggressive (even if true), i'm much more confident in the 390k number logic, especially considering she looks like she's gonna get there midweek.
  11. and the odds of a repeat are straight bluto - 0.0. feel free to correct me if you think otherwise. also i thought you were using 2020 as a baseline and looking at the huge shift in rurals? guess i'm not following this thread close enough. bottom line - the higher the turnout, the better it is for dems. period, paragraph. and so far, the turnout is high. biden won the popular vote by 7m votes. kamala will win by more because of turnout. the gop will never win the popular vote again.
  12. it also doesn't take into account mail-in vote, which has been popular in many states for a while, but didn't take off nationally until covid, which frankly changed everything and shouldn't be used as a baseline for other presidential election years. there won't be a 50/50 pv split anytime soon. i would say "within your lifetime" but i have no idea how old people are.
  13. so tony, you say it's "wild" that a vp candidate would take time to analyze a joke, which implies he's got more important things to do. but then you put "busy schedule" in quotations, which implies that he actually isn't that busy, so hey fuckball, which is it?
  14. fl to kamala is +760 on my book. i think it's worth a half.
  15. greg gutfeld thinks he’s a comedian too, so it’s not like the bar is set that high.
  16. the right is getting better at comedy.
  17. $10 to get in. $20 to get out.
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