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Katfid54

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Katfid54

  1. I’ve read a lot of people providing high-level thoughts that La Tech is “worse than Maryland” and that the game should be an easy one. But I haven’t seen any actual write-up analysis of the game. So I bit the bullet last night and watched La Tech/LSU from last season. Below are my thoughts, with GIFs of some representative plays from that game. Note: to the extent occurrences in the La Tech/LSU game were outliers, it is the only game of La Tech’s that I watched from last year. So I am wholly basing my opinions on that totally inadequate sample size. With that said, let’s get to it. What to expect from La Tech’s offense? Offensive Coordinator and Scheme: La Tech’s OC is Todd Fitch. Fitch has been with Skip Holtz since 2007 at ECU almost continually, although he had a three-year stopover in Boston College from 2012-2015 before reuniting with Holtz at La Tech in 2016. Fitch was passing game coordinator at Iowa State in 2004 under Dan McCarney, where he coached true freshman Bret Meyer to 7 wins, including a victory over Nebraska. Prior to that, he was an assistant under OC Skip Holtz at South Carolina when Lou Holtz was head coach. Offensively, Orlando’s dime will get a LOT of run this game. La Tech runs 4 wide almost every play. They sometimes bring in an insert-back, but almost never have a true TE in on a play. They’d prefer to motion a big WR into the box to help block than to substitute in a TE. La Tech runs no huddle, but their tempo is not anywhere near what most of the teams in the Big XII run. They are not an air raid team. They are more of a traditional spread team. They will attack with bubble screens, WR screens, RB screens, inside zone and traditional spread passing concepts. This will be a good tune up for what we’re going to see out of Neal Brown’s West Virginia on October 5. Offensive Position Players: The first thing that jumps off the page when looking at La Tech is their experience. Across the offense, every single one of their starters is in their third, fourth, or fifth years. Their QB is a RS Sr., and their line goes RS Sr., RS Sr., RS Jr., RS Sr., RS Sr. Texas will not be able to count on La Tech to “lose” the game. La Tech does not blow assignments or commit dumb penalties. They are assignment sound—they just aren’t extremely talented. Quarterback: La Tech returns its starter, J’mar Smith (8), from last year. He is very good at throwing La Tech’s timing routes, and they throw a LOT of them. Like the original spread offenses of the late 90s/early 2000s, La Tech relies on its timing route passing game to generate yards. It does not, generally, try for chunk yardage. La Tech is content to bite off bite-sized yardage through inside zone and screens to work its way down the field. Smith is also decent at throwing intermediate routes to the middle of the field He will buy time with his feet, but he is not a scrambler and generally does not even look to run. Smith struggles pushing the ball downfield with any accuracy. Here's an example: And another example: Smith struggles even more when he has to throw while on the run. Running Backs: La Tech has two main backs—Dancy (23) and Tucker (22)—who are virtually identical. They are shortish scat backs like we see a lot of in the Big XII. Both are good at running inside zone. Here's an example: Here's another example: Both are also used a lot in the passing game and are effective there. Wide Receivers: La Tech’s wide receivers are a mixed bag. There are times where they make fantastic plays, and there are times where they cannot even catch the ball. Their best WR last year was Hardy (who wore 6 last year but apparently is wearing 89 this year?). He is very good and will be a good test for Jalen Green. Notice here that they use WR bubble motion to bring the safety up while their X and Z run right past their defenders. Their only other returning receiver is Alfred (4), who shows up on tape as doing a good job of getting open, although he struggles with catching the ball in traffic. Defensive outlook against La Tech’s Offense: Don’t expect Texas’ defense to have a field day on Saturday. In fact, don’t count on them to be able to reliably pressure the QB at all. Almost everything La Tech does is predicated on timing routes and WR screens. The key is to focus on fundamental football and limit those plays to minimal yardage. La Tech will bail you out by having a WR drop the ball, and they’ll punt and get off the field. If Orlando gets frustrated and starts bringing the house, it could open up big plays for La Tech. Aranda got very aggressive at times against La Tech and pinned his D’s ears back. But La Tech did a nice job of always responding with a timely RB screen for chunk yardage. With that said, La Tech WILL turn the ball over—especially after completing a short pass play when their WRs try to do too much. Orlando’s unit has to be ready to capitalize on those opportunities. What to expect from La Tech’s defense? Defensive Coordinator and Scheme This is a harder breakdown, because La Tech swapped DCs last year. Their new DC is Bob Diaco, who you’ll last remember as a defensive analyst for OU last year when we played them in the cotton bowl and OU’s LB coach when we played them in the Big XII Championship (Diaco was promoted after Stoops was fired). Diaco was fired from OU at the end of the season. Most importantly, you’ll remember Diaco as the coach who invented the fake rivalry between UConn and UCF called the “Civil Conflict,” which UCF refused to recognize (including leaving the “rivalry trophy” on the field after winning the game. Historically, Diaco runs an odd front defense. Ideally, his nose guard will line up in a zero technique and two gap the center, and his ends will two gap the tackles. We’ll see if Diaco has the personnel to do that against Texas. However, La Tech’s current online roster presents as if Diaco will be running a 4-2-5 nickel defense (listing two DEs, two DTs, and two LBs). Defensive Position Players: La Tech’s defense will be experienced. Like their offense, the defense will feature starters who are all in or past their third year. Defensive Line: La Tech’s defensive line last year was boom or bust. But when they boomed, they were very booming. That line loses its two players (45—Ferguson and 99—Garner). Ferguson was a second day pick at the NFL draft. Both were replaced by upperclassmen. It’s tough to figure out what they’ll be this year against the run, given those two losses and the possibility of moving to an odd front. But last year, La Tech’s DL held up well even against a big OL in LSU. LSU was intent to run on La Tech, but La Tech held their own against LSU’s rushing attack. When they faced obvious passing situations last year, the DL’s pass rush was good. Linebackers: Again, assuming last year is an indication, expect this year’s LBs to be good in run fits. This is especially true when La Tech’s safeties assist with run responsibilities. Their strong safety, Jackson (10), jumps out on film. He plays the run like Brandon Jones. Defensive Backs: Their run defense is solid. But the DBs last year did a poor job of holding up in coverage for any length of time. The DBs often lost receivers in space. In fact, La Tech was way better at covering grass than it was at covering wide receviers. DBs lose receivers in space. Way better at covering grass than covering people. Here's an example: Here's another example: Conclusion: This is a great tune up game against a team that will have inferior talent but will not simply give the game away. Texas will have to come prepared, because La Tech is too experience to just roll over and give up. La Tech played LSU close last year in Baton Rouge (La Tech was within three points in the fourth quarter, battling back from being down 14 early in the game). If Texas plays sound assignment football, they should be able to handle La Tech. The -20.5 point spread seems pretty generous to me, but I’d obviously be thrilled for Texas to cover that, because it would really bode well for the team this year. But if Texas isn’t focused on the game and is looking ahead to LSU, this could be an uncomfortable night reminiscent of some squeakers from last season. And if Texas’ defense is too focused on making a splash play, La Tech’s sound fundamentals could lead to some frustrating extended drives. View full articl
  2. I used to always think LotusHorn was Bobby Burton's sock. Now I think it must be FCB's sock.
  3. That stupid nickname has led to ongoing confusion among Horns fans trying to figure out the safety spots in Orlando's dime defense. Yes, Deshon Elliott nicknamed himself The Joker. Yes, Orlando's dime 3-2-6 look has a safety spot named Joker safety. No, Deshon Elliott did not play Joker in Orlando's system in 2017. Jason Hall did. John Bonney played a little, too (remember the INT against Mayfield near OU's end zone?). Then, at the end of the year Antwuan Davis was fantastic at Joker (remember the pick six against KU). Anyway, this is just a PSA from me to the universe, shouted meaninglessly into the void.
  4. He is Machinator's cousin, WebMD.
  5. I can see someone making that point. The trend lines are also consistent with someone who started Juniors and Seniors almost entirely across the board in 2017: The trend lines are also consistent with a rapidly decaying Pac 12--a down Oregon, down USC, and down Stanford. Because when you dig in, the results aren't that impressive. In 2017, WSU gave up: 44 to Boise State (albeit in 3 OT) 23 to Oregon State (who was ranked 59 in S&P+ for offense that year) 37! to Cal (who was ranked 62 in S&P+) 58! to Arizona (one of the Kalil Tate games) 41 to Washington 42! to Michigan State in the Holiday Bowl (ranked 72 in S&P+)
  6. This wasn't a call out of you. Frankly, my post was consistent with yours. I was just using your post as a platform to rebut the conventional wisdom, repeated by many, that Grinch was good at WSU. He really wasn't.
  7. Sorry to quibble with you. But I'm questioning the idea (repeated by you and many others) that Grinch had even one good year at WSU. Grinch's tenure in Pullman (S&P+ defensive ranking): 2015: 77 2016: 60 2017: 30 OU's defensive stats those same years under Mike Stoops 2015: 17 2016: 31 2017: 43 That's right, Grinch was significantly worse at WSU (against much worse offenses) than OU was with Stoops. Only in one year did Grinch outperform Stoops (and only by 13 spots). That was the year that put Mike Stoops on the hot seat at OU sufficiently so that he was fired mid-season 2018. Go ahead and crown his ass.
  8. I've been too busy having sex with my supermodel wife to read any of these posts.
  9. That's true, although I've seen more reports saying that it was Jamison making a move than Boyce. If Boyce is the starter over Jamison, I have more confidence in Cook taking over in the 2nd Half against La Tech.
  10. Cook is out for the 1st half of the La Tech game due to the targeting penalty from Georgia. Boyce "starting" week 1 doesn't necessarily indicate anything about Boyce vs. Cook.
  11. Looks more like Jamaal Charles to me.
  12. Don't want any of my comments to come across as putting Fillinger down or saying that I don't think he's a good prospect. I'm super excited about him. With his size and aggression, I think he's going to be what everyone thought Fitzgerald could turn into.
  13. Gifing one more play, because it's gorgeous. Here's a beautiful run blitz, where Fillinger stunts inside, then uses his leverage to fight back outside to bust through and stop an inside zone.
  14. Maybe. Although I can't tell much height difference between the dude in clip 1 vs. the dude in clip 2. One thing that I'll throw out is that in the second clip, Fillinger has an assignment--he's run a "TE" stunt with DE lined up outside him. Because of that, he knows his first move is a press, and his second move is to disengage and loop outside the end, who is crashing inside the tackle. I could hypothesize from the highlight video that Fillinger is really good when he has a specific job/stunt to perform. In times that he's asked to read and react, he is a step slower to respond, losing the benefit of his length. Examples: On the first clip, there's no stunt or assignment--he appears to just have B gap responsibility and, once he sees pass, he begins to pass rush. In the time he uses to react to the play, though, he stands up and runs into the guard, who he then has to press back off of himself as he makes a pass rush move. The second clip is the TE stunt. He knows exactly what to do, and he executes it violently: Here's some other plays from his highlights where he clearly has a rushing assignment--to show how well he plays when Here's him running the T portion of an NT twist. Watch how well he uses his hands here to ward off OL who try to lay a hand on him: Here, he's running a pretty simple "Blood" stunt from the B gap into the A gap. Look at how well he uses his hands here (although his pad level leaves something to be desired as he's splitting the Center/Guard): And here are two other plays where has no obvious assignment other than to play the B-gap: This one is against the same guy as the TE stunt. It's quintessential high school talent domination, where he runs up on the kid and presses him back.
  15. One thing Fillinger will have to work on is consistently using his good length to keep OL at bay. There are several highlights in that clip where he lets the OL get into his pads before pressing them off. That's all well and good when you're massively stronger and bigger than everyone else, but it doesn't translate to the next level. But compare this clip, where he lets an OL get all the way into his chest: With this clip, where he keeps his arms fully extended, then rips past the OL (and enjoy the hell out of seeing the OL get shucked to the ground): There's a caveat here that this is a common problem among high school D-lineman, so this isn't a huge concern with Fillinger. Some coaches/evaluators describe it as DL who "catch" the OL before making a move, which is what Fillinger does sometimes.
  16. Honey, I'm home:
  17. I wish I was Eaton her out.
  18. Candi walked away from Jimbo. I thought that was known?
  19. Pretty sure Alderaan got blown up a long time ago in a galaxy far, far away.
  20. My words were:
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