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Had Enough

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Had Enough

  1. Percentages and success rates are meaningless? No way. Warners thoughts are valuable, but he’s also not trying to tear people down. Gruden isnt trying to either, but I’d bet he’d chew his QBs butt for many a mistake. If a QB, or any player, can make a particular throw or play, it is about how often they can repeat it. Obviously, footwork is a part of that preferred repetition. Then 3 years of data is much better support than watching 3 games out of 30. That is not to refute anything Warner says is inaccurate or untrue. And whether Ewers was a 1st rounder or a 7th rounder, all those things can be true in either case.
  2. I’ll hit on a few points here. Stats do not tell the entirety of the story and have said as such. But they put the entirety of every play out there. It’s not a focus on the best game or the worst game either. Any QB that has ever made 1,000 throws has some good and some bad. It does highlight some consistency or lack of consistency if you prefer to look at it that way from the stats. It being an imperfect science is why NFL QBs fail but in my opinion an underappreciated aspect is the entirety of the environment that fails in support of that QB. If you can’t pass block for shit, it’s over in most cases, for example. As for opponent defenses, that does matter. What is more important is the individual matchups of your offense versus their defense. Can a Worthy beat Kool Aid and Arnold? Can a Banks handle Dallas Turner? Texas rates very favorably in those comparisons over the past 3 years. From a statistical standpoint, I can’t say there was a discernible difference between Ewers and Shough. But, yes, statistically Dart separated himself. You also can say he played SEC defenses. You also can draw a line and say there’s a difference in offensive skill between Ole Miss and Texas. Harris good but slower than any WR we’ve had the past two years. I do not recall any drafted Ole Miss Oline. Their TE was a free agent. Texas pass pro grade was ranked #2. Ole Miss was not #1. For the past two years, Ole Miss had a better OFEI ranking than Texas. In that example of Dart versus Ewers, they started off the draft process in similar draft projections then some separation began being created. It’s reflective in the data so then drill down and does that tape match the data. From the NFL perspective, I’d watch every play of every game from any QB I were interested in drafting. Then I’d do it again. I’d also look at all this data to go along with it. Then I’d quiz the hell out of them in an attempt to see what they know and how hard they’re willing to work to learn what they don’t.
  3. I’d probably always say there’s more to it. Shough is big and straight line fast so he gets the “I hope he’s like Josh Allen.” As much as I critique Ewers, and/or criticize, I think both guys have possibilities. Now, in my opinion, it shifts to how can a guy process from pre-snap to post snap. Within that, it may not even be about that first read but do I know where that coverages dictates I go with second and third options. That’s repetitions. That’s film study. That’s knowing your playbook inside and out. That is why I’ve said I think Sark has prepared Ewers better than some but then it’s his work ethic to learn that mental side so the physical component becomes less rushed, if that makes sense.
  4. There’s a ton of variables in this. I’m not certain there’s a good measure for determining a baseline of accuracy. There’s certainly a good team/bad team element. Heavy screen game versus limited screen game. Pass protection matters. The receivers ability to get in and out of their route creating separation. I’d guess going 5 wide creates a shorter average depth of target because that’s now your run game. Heavy play action matters. It’s helpful to be successful in that game running the ball but not imperative because the D worked to shut it down likely in favor of allowing passing opportunities. Some QBs will be better spread, some better pro set. Some dudes will be in the wrong system.
  5. Here is the midpoint on completion percentage at each depth: Deep 36.4% Only 7 guys above 50% Intermediate 54.6% Short 74.4% Behind the LOS 90.3%. 106 of 126 are above 85%. So again, using completion percentage on a standalone basis when other data is fairly readily available is not a good indicator. If you stay short and behind the LOS, if you do that in an equal ratio, the average guy is around 83-84%. That same consideration for intermediate/deep is around 45%. The fact is, and strongly supported by the numbers, that if you push the ball down the field, the completion percentage goes down. At this time, I am looking up the numbers as I type. Well will go Dart, Ewers, Shough. Ewers on deep/intermediate is at 34% of drop backs. At short/behind the LOS, he’s at 60%. On the first grouping he’s at 47% completion percentage. 83% at the shorter depths. Overall completion percentage at 65.8%. Dart. 44.4%/49.8%. 56.5% completion percentage deep/int and 88.4% short/los. Overall completion percentage is 69.2%. Shough. 31.9%/58.5% on target breakdown. 52.8% and 77.2%. Overall completion percentage is 62.1%. This tells you some things about Dart relative to the other two. Ewers looks better than Shough. Shough is behind the LOS 13% of the time, 10% of those are screens. Ewers is at 28% with a 17.5% screen ratio. So when parsed a bit more Ewers gains about 2% completion points compared to Shough because he goes even shorter more often.
  6. But Brian is good enough to be Fresnos TE coach. You inspired me to search. I recall his last season at Iowa he was much hated. Terrible, terrible offense.
  7. I didn’t recall whether it immediately got worse or took some time.
  8. For me, the play calling can override the other. Didn’t like his play calling. Then he went to Iowa with a veteran QB who I believe proceeded to have an awful year.
  9. His actions were in two different games. He could have subtly said something to the barely out of high school freshman. There was a tad “look at me” in his actions. But that’s fine. Had he ended it there. But the next day after his homer, he mocked the crowd and the Horns in rounding 2nd base. I’m not sure there was necessarily anything intense in the moment that he was responding to at the time. All this from a 3rd year player. On a team that trails by what 7 games.
  10. Is there any pushback on your dipshit 1st baseman? The one that not so subtly got in Williams face but then also did the Horns HR celebration/acknowledgment to LF. Congrats to Mr. Notgonnawintheconference.
  11. Just trying to get the band back together for a minute. You are correct, I have not seen the video to the contrary either.
  12. I bet @jimmyjazz believe it to be true.
  13. I only recall one other poster saying that was bs. So, if no one else beyond Derks and his sock BO&W, refute it, they must agree with it. Right? The 88 yards in middle school is less believable than 75-80 yards in high school.
  14. If you wish to see the full story, you drill down from there. Generally speaking, if you change a variable, you change the equation. These metrics tell you what the QB is being asked to do, which is not necessarily what they’re capable of doing or even do best, and how they functioned within that. Overreliance could certainly be a reason for NFL QB failures, but the overall structure of the environment and offense are reasons for failure too. The “eye test” is one too. I also believe QB is the most overcoached position which can result in coaching the instincts out of a player.
  15. Looks like Sunday UF guys were not good at first pitch strikes, but that was probably late inning guy more so than starter. The hitter is in a difficult spot on the 3rd strike. If you teach them to be selective, then the ump is giving the borderline strike it is hard to fault them.
  16. I do enjoy a good big man TD. Probably more so when thrown than run. It’s fun for everyone.
  17. Advanced stats are probably more useful for QB than any other position. It’ll never tell the full story but it certainly can paint a different story than perception. I wouldn’t say completion percentage is completely useless on a standalone basis, but it has less value than it once did. And grading while subjective, paired with other metrics, tells a good story when broken down by depth of target. It’s pretty basic but if you throw at or near the LOS, that completion number will be higher than if you push it down the field.
  18. They could have run those in but no we have to pad Ewers stats.
  19. It annoys the hell out of me. Buy Cotton Bowl tickets thru the University. Sit 10 rows from the top of the stadium. Maybe that’s better than getting shut out for the Sugar Bowl vers UW and forced to go secondary market. But this has been the case for a long time.
  20. Nice throw by brother of Jason.
  21. Like the new sock look Andre.
  22. I don’t see why that’d be the case. We need to hit. Probably ought to tank in the SEC tourney. Some downtime would likely help.
  23. It’s likely much easier to coach the awareness out of a player than to coach it into them. Sark has the inkling to be the type to coach it out of you. He might be backing off that some. Both of the points of discussion are heavily impacted by coaching and the environment. Sometimes less coaching results in better production. Vince Young is far from the only guy that needed “let him play.”
  24. And it was Rodriguez with the throw.
  25. It should be remembered that the Aggies are 3-0 versus South Carolina. The South Carolina that has their best non-conference wins over South Carolina Upstate and Charleston. The Aggies best non -conference wins are Cal Poly and Lamar. The Aggies are 1-2 at a neutral site with the win over Rice. 13 wins over sub-500 teams in non-conference. None of those teams are from the top 4 RPI conferences.
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