My own predictions are generally wrong, but I'll bring up a few points to consider.
First, the whole notion of the first attempt to overthrow government as we know it being something of a practice run in effect even if that wasn't the intention to start off with. Frontal assault on the Capitol failed although I don't like to think how it would have gone had Trump been driven to the building.
Okay, so what's the next move? I tend to believe that the state of Ohio was stolen to re-elect GW Bush. I just watched Trumpites try to disrupt the last presidential election. GOP state governments are all over the place publicly moving to cheat there way into office. Your political analysis relies on a free and fair election running by the same rules that CNN still believes to be in effect.
I don't think the main game is politics anymore. I think the GOPs were already moving to stack the deck to keep their fascist, Russia-sucking, corrupt asses in permanent control. The hate engine predates Trump's seizure of the reins to it. Election cheating similarly predates him. It is quite possibly naive to believe the next election will be like the ones prior to Trump. The game is war against republican style government. I don't believe one side plans to wear gloves.
Second, where is the countervailing public force to take actions that match those of the criminal GOP/MAGA/Proudboy/Trump conspiracy? Are our institutions really working very well? Trump walks around spewing treason, reprisal, and bald dishonesty and only a few of us blink at it anymore. Can we keep counting on generals like Milley? Should we be concerned about how many more Flynns are wearing stars?
I'm wearing the concern out, but I never thought I'd live in an America where the disposition of the Army would be a consideration in the political future.
I've never desired to invent crazy stories so that I can feel like I'm living in extraordinary times. I was quite content to ride out the white guy boomer gravy train to the end. There is cataclysm all around. Paradigms have radically shifted. The general populace won't see it nor will the bulk of leaders.
In that context, talking about where Trump is campaigning and Electoral vote counts seem sort of trivial.