
Reagan1k
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Everything posted by Reagan1k
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2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?
Reagan1k replied to Reagan1k's topic in Business and Markets
I agree with this. It's damn hard to adjust labor prices as long as demand is somewhat steady....impossible if demand is growing. It takes something on the lines of a shock to the system in order for employment to fall enough that workers accept lowering of wages. What doesn't ever appear to be transitory is the cost of certain items that are increased due to input costs, but never adjust when the input costs fall. There are a lot of segments in the economy where a 2-5% annual increase is baked into pricing, usually on 1/1/XX. Those occured this year, and were then quickly followed with rapid off-schedule price increases...often multiple times already. Those manufacturers aren't going to be eager to reduce prices unless they are forced to by a demand shock. A lot of this is too sticky to be transitory. Some will be transitory, but once the toothpaste is out of the tube, many sectors of the economy never get it pushed back in. And, as mentioned quite well above, transitory inflation can evolve and become non-transitory. -
And I'll add - what other people are feeling........ despite how they look or act from my perspective. HUGE point there by Twice. It was pointed out to me that one of the most damaging mental activities in which we engage is the act of comparison. Most of the time we are comparing our internal feelings with others' outward appearance. We become self-deprecating, have a sense of isolation, or feel guilty for having certain emotions in light of our circumstances vs. theirs. All this is based on a perception and not the truth. I feel sad but they look or act happy. I feel scared but they look or act fearless. I feel awkward in this social setting but they look or act natural and at ease. What Twice illustrated through his own experience is one of the major benefits of good work with a professional, or for those of us with an 'ism, the benefits of a thorough walk through a 12-step program. It forces you to get those emotions past your teeth and in discussion you find out that your feelings aren't unique and others struggle with the same deals. It's the SWAN analogy - gliding gracefully across the water. What you don't see is that bird is paddling like a sumbitch under the surface. Each swan knows it is, but it's outward appearance doesn't portray that. The other swans just see the grace on the surface and all think they must be the only ones struggling to keep up. This thread provides some benefit in this manner because it's a method to spit out those emotions in a non-threatening venue, and hear back that others relate. Working with a professional to wade through those emotions (if you are honest about it) helps people realize that feelings aren't facts, and that while we can't control our initial emotions, we can control what we do with them. What CBT helps us do is to take those natural emotions and process through them using specific tools and a different perspective.
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In my experience a feeling of terminal uniqueness as @TwiceHorn described is really any sense that we are unique among our peers.....that our case is different. Whether that be that no one understands MY situation, no one feels like this, or even that I have it better than the average soul and have no right to complain. It carves us out of the herd, mentally. Anything that frames our emotions as unique, unwarranted, or not periodically and commonly shared by others makes us question ourselves. Just something to consider....
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There was a old boy 25+ years ago that had a place just south of Llano on 16 - West side of the road. He had a little swale where he'd meticulously cleared probably 7-8 acres. For several years he'd plant oats and manually irrigate it as needed from his well. I swear at dusk it looked like half of the deer in the county congregated in that field. You'd see them walking north on both sides of 16 on their way there. They do love oats, and especially in areas like that where food plots aren't common. It was like an open bar for college kids.
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At the time I ordered this batch - back in February - you could order "M1 Garand IHC Service Grade. Only part guaranteed to be IHC is the receiver. Some other parts could be IHC but not guaranteed." I ordered 4 - (2) IHC Service Grade and (2) WRA Field Grade. So far they have filled the order on the IHC, but not the WRA. I've heard that they stopped taking orders for anything but Springfield and H&R potluck Field Grade since then, and are slowly filling the orders like mine that they already had in house as the guns pass through the armorers and are ok'ed. IHC's were $1080 each and the WRA were $850 each at that time. No clue what pricing is now.
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General construction industry news, rants, questions
Reagan1k replied to deadshank's topic in Business and Markets
Correct. Hell, just getting simple 16 gauge flexible cable is a nightmare and prices continue to rise. If has a motor, sensor cable, or any circuitry in it, it's more expensive and takes longer to receive than ever before. -
General construction industry news, rants, questions
Reagan1k replied to deadshank's topic in Business and Markets
Well yes Mr. Customer, I can sell you "X", I just can't tell you how much it will cost or when you will get it. So, how many do you want? -
Lots of outfits will claim to have the best seed blend......ALL claim no till, drought resistant, 100" extra horn growth, etc. Lots of marketing claims, but with anything, the devil is in the details. I'm not a food plot guy, but the people I know who have had success have taken a soil sample and a short list of goals to the local Ag Extension and had them make a recommendation on any needed soil amendments and best performing plants for the area. That narrows down the shopping list a lot. From there you can weed through the various blend....sorry for the pun. I have heard that doing a blend often gives you better results, because it staggers germination time, and the plot continues to evolve and produce groceries as the weather changes. YMMV.
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CMP goodies. Two more "ping" machines arrived today. Order date to shipment has slowed a ton, but who cares. One has a new stock and the other one's had a lot more experience.
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Like a prized 4H steer….
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Pretty sure that dude isn’t a dude (anymore) Will know in a month or so but I’m betting he’s another one who lost his gender identity to hypogonadism.
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Dayumn! Helluva deal. Lucky you! Hopefully it's just dusty!
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SG Ammo has .300BO subs for $1.50
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They're lining up at Academy as we speak, and creating new Gunbroker listings while waiting.
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Unique to every family dynamic. Does spouse work outside home? Would that continue? Dependent minors / disabled dependents? College Plans? Additional costs when you're dead (housekeeping, lawn, pool-boy to entertain wife?) Several other things to consider - retirement for spouse, etc. 10x is a quick and dirty catchall but can be too much or not enough. Plenty of calculators on line, or you can work with a fee only planner or agent and have them run the numbers.
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Yep - On the Managing for Wildlife topic I talked about day leases and how back in the 60's through the early 80's the combination of day leases and doe permits (not tags on a license) set the hill country back decades. Big reason for the buck /doe ratio imbalance. There's nothing you can do to combat day leases, especially during the rut when bucks roam. The only hope is to have enough ground to give them everything they need and no reason to leave for the 90% of the year they aren't chasing. That's tricky, because it often means not hunting / not hunting very often, a good portion of your property if its small. Setting up those sanctuary areas cuts down on your hunting access so it's a tradeoff. I've seen it done with decent success where a buddy groomed a property to hunt from his boundaries inward......Making the inner circle an all inclusive deer resort and only hunting / traveling the perimeter. He is a bowhunter so that helped, along with the fact that the property was single in purpose....to hunt. No joy rides with the kids on the Ranger, and no hiking around kicking rocks and shooting cactus with .22's.
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Bit over 2000 acres. Pretty rugged by most standards. That helps.
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Yeah- I won’t be taking any calls if Chris Hansen shows up on my caller ID. Touché
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Southern Llano county - Enchanted Rock area. We've been blessed with the ability to invest time and money....mostly time. This is a low fenced ranch on all sides and even has some 16 frontage, so it's not a true sanctuary, but we try to make it such for the bucks. They get every opportunity to reach 5 years plus if they don't roam across the boundary or try and play chicken with trucks on the highway. Many years ago we made the decision to see what would happen if you fed a little and let bucks actually mature, instead of shooting "good" bucks at 3 or 4 years. Results have been pretty amazing. The hill country will produce +150" deer on the regular if hunters will just let them get there. Genetics often get blamed for the typical hill country buck, but in reality our observation is that a lack of patience is to blame.
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This guy still has a baby face, but he'd be tempting up close from a bow blind. Massive potential here if he'll just hang around and not wander off and get shot this year. Looks to be a good year in the hill country. He hasn't even had one mouthful of protein and he's sporting some good bone for a 3 yr old....mother nature is providing plenty of groceries this year.
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And for good reason….. they aren’t a fucking Kolache.
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Top buck now has some kickers that are coming in but the daylight body shots tell me he's a year away from being mature. Skinny in the chest, leggy, and flat back. The middle two bucks do the same thing every night - Stare at the camera and say "Y U no work - Y U look at pictures all day" This buck below (stage left) is fully rocking the matching G2 kickers since this shot below, But I can't find the most recent one. He's got some potential, but may still get a year. Belly and back are too straight. Daytime shot of double drops is one of those stags due to chemical castration (toxic plant). Stays in velvet - Horns never dropped. Died back to 50% and then started re-growing. They get worse (or better depending on your POV) each year. He's a dead deer walking - No balls, nothing but a steer that eats his ass off. Will still be a cool mount in full velvet and a ton of great venison....as close to Axis taste as a WT will come since he's got no testosterone in him. I'll assign myself to be his hitman. I'm not itching to shoot a big, mature buck and am on permanent cull-duty these days. Really more fun for me b/c I don't get invested in chasing ghosts and don't feel the need to bust my ass hunting that hard.
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