as I said, I dont think ESPN will allow the ACC to disintegrate until it suits their purpose to do so. If they did, I would agree with you because those schools would definitely be in front of the line. But I dont see Duke, Uva and UNC going anywhere for the foreseeable future IMO. You may be right that they stand pat at 18, I'm just trying to think through things logically. I negotiate contracts for a living so tend to think about angles from both sides and specifically money impact. If adding Cal and Furd helps travel costs, adds TV inventory and doesnt cost the other schools anything for the next decade, I think there is value in adding them.
And full disclosure, I'm a Texas grad but come from a Cal family and grew up in the Bay Area going to Cal games. I'm trying not to wish cast Cal into any kind of relevance but if the Big18 doesnt happen, their program likely ceases to exist. Independent or MWC isn't an option financially. Big12 cultural divide is vast so unlikely. Some sort of merge with the ACC was possible but probably isnt viable with Washington and Oregon gone.