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SL Xpress
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No offense, but I don't see where D-Day is all that relevant of a comparison, other than the date, and one side was on offense while the other was on defense. The fact is Ukraine only has 12 brigades they've formed made up of new western armor (and by new, I mean 40 years old). Many of the people in those brigades are newly mobilized. They have no industrial capacity to replace any losses. They have to go hat in hand for every single vehicle. There aren't any more Leopard 2A4s or better forthcoming. It's all Leopard 1s from what I can see, and the 31 M1 Abrams are older models that come with their own supply chain issues. They have no real close combat support. Both the planes and helicopters fly nape of the earth tactics and practically fling their air to ground missiles blind. The storm shadows are different because they can be fired at a safer range, but those aren't close combat support in any case. They certainly have no paratrooper capability, nor robust amphibious assault assets much beyond inflatable rafts. Unless the Russians show a discernible weakness in their lines at some point - and I'm personally convinced they will - it's going to be tough sledding. The assault teams will take a few meters. Support teams will then secure the area. Artillery will reposition. Rinse and repeat. Through minefields, entrenched positions, artillery fire, and against a more robust close combat air support. Oh, and across flat land with little topographical changes and limited cover of any sort. Which is both a strength and a weakness, but certainly leaves assault teams naked on approach. From what I've read Ukraine is concentrating on taking strategic heights from which they can mount more attacks. In the Bakhmut region they're using veteran forces still utilizing their older equipment, and having success to the tune of 1.5 to 2 kilometers of advancement. Now, we also have huge fog of war issues, so who knows how up to date anything we're getting about the attack really is. But I do feel like it's safe to say we're not seeing any kind of Kharkiv style breakthroughs so far. Nor should we have expected any. I feel extremely confident we haven't seen a wholesale "all in" type of attack, but we may not, either. This may be what the offensive looks like. I don't believe that, but I do understand a certain reluctance by Ukrainian command in committing assets that are very difficult to replace, in terms of both man and machine. And remember, the Kherson offensive, while successful, apparently took a huge toll on both equipment and men. It could be we'll see a repeat of that offensive. I hope not. I hope they're able to achieve a breakthrough somewhere along the southern front that leads to a jail break. But anything which demonstrates this doesn't have to settle into an attritional war is a huge success in my opinion. So we'll see how it goes.
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Here's one of the better assessments I've seen of what's going on. Obviously short on specifics, and the guy admits he's parsing through a lot of Russian disinformation. But while he's pro Ukraine he's not rah rah. I've had mixed feelings about some of The Drive's reporting. I just don't know what to think of them so far, other than they're trying the best they can at making a living doing what they're passionate about. In any case, here's the article. Tons of twitter links so you can go further down the rabbit hole if you so desire: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-offensive-brings-claims-of-limited-breathroughs
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People upset regarding media reports the collapse of the Kakhovka dam is being blamed by both sides on one another. Which IS absurd, but that's how it's always been. Until there's some kind of official word that can be cited, some authoritative source for what happened, this is how it goes. It's obvious to any thinking person that Russia blew up this dam by mining it then purposefully detonating it, but we have to go through this charade. But I don't blame thinking people who feel like giving both sides of the issue equal credence is absurd. It is. But it's also just how things are. The truth will come out eventually. Until then you have to do what is necessary to come out victorious.
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Heartfelt message from a soldier in Bakhmut: "Birthday, In the war, if you come out of the meat grinder, it's already your birthday. And this happens many many times. If, of course, you are lucky. Only for yesterday's storm, there were several moments when I should not have lived to see my birthday. It was bloody.... I watched so much...every time it's like a new one. I'm not used to it. The worst thing is that when you are exhausted, it is difficult to to resist stress. The surrounding horror breaks through the defenses of the psyche, penetrates and fills you. When you are extremely exhausted, and can't [sic] standing on your feet...but there are many wounded fellows around, and they need to be saved, and then taken out of here. And at this time, shells are exploding next to you...nearby flashes of fire are blinding. The air is permeated with iron fragments and bullets...and you realize that you yourself will now be wounded or die.... The realization that the tattered and unrecognizable body is your brother with whom you have gone through so much....screams, shelling, explosions, and chaos....you are lost orientation in space.... Every time I am more and more surprised by the soldiers of Ukraine. These are incomprehensibly cool people who voluntarily go to hell. Thank you to everyone who put me on my feet, pulled me out of battle, who supported me during the war. And especially those with whom I have the honor to fight side by side together." This is a Ukrainian sniper. He has a number of videos and interviews with western reporters on his twitter page, along with images of when he was wounded in the fighting and then returned.
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I have no idea regarding the veracity of this tweet. Could be images from months ago for all I know. But I want to believe:
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A little young for me, but very pretty:
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I'd like to say you're not going to believe this...but Russia.
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Different perspective from a Sweden writer talking about the training the Ukrainians went through with the CV90. It bothers me that the writer calls them tanks, but that's okay. Apparently all the trainees were older men, according to the article. I wonder if that's because they were considered the most competent for the training, or it was in part to give them duties as infantry which didn't require as much physical exertion. Probably a combination of the two. UAF can't afford to send people they don't have a high confidence in that can follow the training and apply it on the battlefield. Especially with the more advanced heavy weaponry, which the CV90 is. Also interesting they're sending a model with an upgraded armor package. https://www.forsvarsmakten.se/en/news/2023/06/ready-for-the-front/
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The kid they dropped the water bottle to on the roof of his house with a drone was saved along with his family. The video doesn't have a translation, but the story is plenty damn cool in cyrillic, too, even though I can't read it.
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The Lt Col. recently kidnapped and tortured by Wagner who said on video he fired on Wagner forces because he was drunk and angry with them, has released a new video. I'm sorry guys, but this shit is hilarious. The level of dysfunction is frankly hard to believe. It's stunning Wagner was allowed to get away with this shit..,.but then again, Russia.
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I'm surprised no one else has posted this already. Texas Track and Field came out with a hype video, and it's as good as any hype video I've seen for any sport at Texas. It put goosebumps on my goosebumps.
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It's been a bummer going into the quagmire of the Russian propaganda universe in search of updates. It's impossible to believe anything they're spouting. On the other hand, there is a pretty "good" video (quality wise) of either artillery or one report said an attack helicopter decimating a few UAF armored vehicles who were stuck in a muddy minefield. Just waiting to see what has actually unfolded. What is clear is that at least one of the more robust attacks towards Tokmak occurred at night, which says to me they were taking advantage of western thermal optics and night vision.
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Ukraine assault teams are Longhorn fans.
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Exports are cheaper. Money sent back home will go further I’ll also say that at least by every account I’ve read the ballots were counted fairly. That shouldn’t be taken for granted, especially in a country where one man has amassed as much power as Erdogan has. Obviously Erdogan’s party controls all state organs including the media, but the opposition could have run a better race, too. He’ll never be as vulnerable as he was in this election. It’s a shame they couldn’t win.
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Not endorsing the message in the tweet, but the video is horrific. Here's a "better" video:
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Horrific article about what is occurring on the Russian occupied side of the Dnipro River. "...the Russians allegedly destroyed people's means of escape. Serhiy's parents told him the Russians went through the town and rounded up or destroyed all the boats they could find in the weeks before triggering the explosion that caused Ukraine's most lurid catastrophe in decades. "They stole the boats before all this... all the landings, they carried out all the boats," said Serhiy, paraphrasing what his parents told him. "It's like they were preparing for this to specially create a situation so that no one could escape." "We thought they were looting. Now I understand that there was a specific command to remove all means of flotation so that people couldn't save themselves." Oleh said that his aunt told him a similar story. "They (the boats) were taken away," he said, quoting her. "People whose houses were locked kept their boats. The ones on the pier were smashed, shot up, or taken away." https://kyivindependent.com/they-are-destroying-us-people-plea-to-escape-flooded-russian-occupied-areas/ Allegedly Oleshky, a town of 24,000 pre invasion, is expected to be completely submerged.
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All the twitter warriors telling posters to be quiet about the offensive. Give me a fucking break. Making sure everyone on twitter stays quiet about a major offensive underway is as likely as holding water with a sieve.
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No. He's pretty much a badass. But he's part of the Azov Battalion, so he ends up getting entwined with the neo Nazi propaganda that group gets associated with. He still may be in his grandmother's basement right now, but it's without an eye and with a prosthetic left arm suffered in combat, neither of which stopped him from serving in Mariupol in the Azovstal Steelworks, until their surrender.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illia_Samoilenko_(officer) Here's the BBC interview referenced in the Wikipedia entry: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63231457
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Lots of indications by completely untrustworthy twitter posters that there's a massive night offensive going on towards Tokmak. Apparently there's 6 layers of defense between the frontline and the town itself. I guess we'll see. Just as likely to be more probing.
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Are you being serious, or purposefully silly? How many NATO countries want to actively send in troops to kick Russia out of there? The US certainly doesn't. I do agree with others that Poland and the Baltic States are probably rarin' to go, but virtually the rest of NATO has no desire to send their own troops in there. In the US, politically it would be a disaster for the president and political party that did such a thing. I do feel alarmist about the power plant right now, particularly after what happened with the dam, but I'm not seeing the kind of rhetoric from the US and other countries I'd like to about the issue. Mostly we're still collectively dithering about whether it was Ukraine or Russia that blew it up (narrator: It was Russia). Anyway, that's not going to be a realistic option. Remember, one member nation can veto any new member. That's why Turkiye can keep Sweden of all places out of NATO. There's simply no way you're going to get every NATO country to agree to such a deal.
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I read it as more of a threat to places like France and Germany, if countries like Hungary and Turkiye try to slow everyone's roll. It's very difficult for me to see Poland sending in troops in the near term. And no offense to the Baltic States, but I'm not sure what in the world they could actually do. Honestly, Poland intervening by taking out Russian air defense and enforcing a no fly zone over Ukraine would be more impactful than sending in troops. Not sure they're capable of doing that, but that's a bigger need than Polish infantry. But all of that is fantasy talk. It's a bluff to get reluctant members of NATO to go along with some kind of substantive path to membership for Ukraine. Otherwise all the pressure is going to be on dithering and tabling discussions. There's a real world issue with figuring out how to let in a country to a mutual self defense organization when it's already at war, and none of the members really want to actively intervene. That was the brilliance of the Donbas separatist move by Putin/Russia in the first place. The conflict basically froze Ukraine's admittance into both the EU and NATO. But he overextended his hand, and now all bets are off.
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That's some crazy shit right there. Thank you for posting.
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3 times in 300+ years. Charles XII doesn't get the recognition of Napoleon and Operation Barbarossa in the west, but he gets a whole lot more in Russia. He lost through much the same dynamic you're describing. Peter the Great had an incredible knack for failing upward with his military campaigns.
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