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SL Xpress

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Everything posted by SL Xpress

  1. I feel like there's room here for reasonable people to agree to disagree to an extent. It comes down to my fundamental view of humanity, which is we are a tribal species by nature where it takes an extensive amount of cultural programming to overcome those natural tribal instincts, and that programming is always extraordinarily fragile from one generation to the next. My argument would be that the evil actions we associate with Japan and Germany during World War II were actions that have been performed throughout human history and prehistory. It's the inevitable end result of tribalism taken to its furthest point. I say inevitable purposefully, because unless consciously combatted both individually by all of us searching out our natural prejudices and the reasons we hold them, as well as society as a whole having a cultural imperative to protect tribes without the current means to power, so that they can at some point in the future hold the reins of power, the end result is some type of repression and possibly extermination on a grand scale. Whatever else Germany and Japan have done, there can be little doubt their innate sense of superiority is intact and healthy as ever. With Germany I feel like its best display was during the debt crisis following the 2008 global financial meltdown - particularly their position regarding Greece - and their attitudes towards Turkish immigrants. With Japan, I'd argue it's the most xenophobic country on the planet. That's a natural result of being an island nation that has only suffered one military conquest in its history. While it's true their economies are admirable in many respects, it's also true they have extensive cultural impediments to operating with a current account deficit, including the institutional and cultural difficulties in successfully exporting goods and services to either country, the cultural and institutional pressure to be high savers rather than consumers, and the meshing across sectors between various industries, most notably banking and other financial institutions, which is done to a significant degree to protect domestic ownership and management. I'd argue that many of the aspects of their economies the rest of the world might be better off emulating, rather than casting them as some kind of villain. But regardless, they rely on the rest of the world to buy their goods and services to maintain their economic growth, and then they lend the money earned back to those consumer nations so they can buy more goods and services. It's changed somewhat for Germany since the advent of the euro, and become much more European centric, but the dynamics are still firmly in place. At its heart it's a predatory economic model. For a nascent economy trying to grow, it makes sense. Coming out of World War II, with both industrial bases obliterated, both countries are absolutely success stories. But at this point they're both mature economies who sociologically refuse to become more consumption/import reliant. It would be different if some years they maintained high current account surpluses while in others they had high current account deficits, but that's not how either country works. Again, I don't want to say this is entirely Japan and Germany's fault. The rest of the world has responsibilities in how they operate and maintain their economies. I'm simply saying that the current global economic model is unsustainable. It depends to a significant extent on various countries running massive current account deficits every year, and having the money funneled back by buying assets or lending the money through the purchase of bonds to keep the cycle going. That's a predatory cycle which will eventually be changed. Probably catastrophically. The 2008 debt crisis was a fundamental unfolding of this dynamic, but there will be others. And eventually there will be bigger ruptures. All of this is way off the topic of the thread. I'm merely posting this as an aside to whatshisface on Twitter (Huffman maybe?) comparing the future cultural change in Russia to what has already transpired in Germany in Japan, with the response that things aren't changing in Russia, and I also have some questions regarding how much things have changed fundamentally in Germany and Japan, although it's true neither one is seeking to dominate their neighbors through military force.
  2. He’s also a bureaucrat, not an operative. Hes basically the head of a mafia, but he thinks he’s Michael Corleone when he’s really Don Barzini.
  3. That’s certainly been Putin’s M.O.. But who knows what he’s doing. He’s not playing chess while everyone else is playing checkers. He made a colossal fuckup by invading Ukraine, but instead of owning up to it he’s punishing anyone who wants to be realistic to him about what’s going on. There is nothing but disaster ahead for Russia. Just hope it doesn’t end in a mushroom cloud. Or multiple ones.
  4. “When Putin finally goes, I suspect there will be one or two interim figures before Russia finally gets a leader who has a shot at righting the ship. But who will that person be? Whoever it is, that person will certainly have a tough road ahead of him (or her).” It’s not a bug. It’s a feature. The kind of western style collaboration necessary to function in a representative government is seen as weakness in Russian culture. Who is their George Washington? Their Abraham Lincoln? All of their admired leaders - including Putin, and whoever ends up taking over for the long term after he’s gone - are ruthless despots. It’s how their society is structured from the top down. I’m not saying every single Russian is supportive of that. I’m saying the few that aren’t have never had any power and are seen as outliers by the rest of society. To the ruthless people who take power they’re the suckers, the sheep, the peasants, who deserve to be ruled over because that’s their lot in life. And the Russian culture is so fucking fatalistic for the most part - fatalism is possibly the strongest fucking strand in the DNA of Russian culture - that they’ll go along with it. That’s a big part of what I admire so much about the Ukrainians. In so many ways they’ve told the Russians “fuck you, we’re not accepting your fatalistic bullshit any more.” To me that’s what the Orange Revolution and the Maidan Revolution were about. And I’ll tell you what. After this war is over and the reforms for corruption still keep going nowhere for the most part - which is what I predict will happen - those fuckers are going to do it again. They’ll simply gather by the hundreds of thousands in Kyiv to say “no more!” That shit simply isn’t going to occur in Russia. Someone will take charge and start murdering and jailing people until no one is protesting any more, just like they always have. To expect something different is foolish, IMO.
  5. There won’t be any “righting of the ship.” There will be another strong man autocrat. This is a foolish and misplaced way of thinking about the future of Russia. What we should be celebrating is the possible excision of Ukraine from that poisonous orbit. It’s not over by a long shot, but the fact they’re this close to being able to finally throw off the yoke of Russian domination is a reason for mass celebration. But there is no chance of some kind of reformation of Russia. None. And to be honest, I’m not completely convinced there’s been a total reformation of Germany and Japan. They were successfully demilitarized and their constitutions were enshrined with protections from having any real offensive military capabilities whatsoever, but in economic terms you’d be hard pressed to find two economies more predatory than Germany and Japan with their export led economic growth strategies. Not to mention Japan’s success led to China following suit. There’s no pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. There’s a hill, and we’re pushing a boulder up it, and when we get near the top it’s going to roll down again. The key thing in all of this is to try to be a civilization/culture worth aspiring to, and then continue to ensure our existence. But it’s dumb to talk about the possibility of Russia reforming. Just like it was when Yeltsin was president. It ain’t happening. The best we can hope for is it splits into several different pieces so none of them have the power of the Soviet Union.
  6. I've posted videos from this journalist on this thread previously, but it's been a while. She's my absolute favorite covering the war. In particular, her stories in and around Bakhmut I find utterly compelling. In this video she and her colleagues cover a number of elements that make up an assault on the Russian position. No real footage of the assault itself, but 48m of the people behind the operation before and afterwards. I found it extremely compelling. I hope some of you do as well.
  7. Which is a little ironic given that 956 Worldwide is an Aggie, and we all listen to him, as well we should.
  8. Well, 17 years. Is that decades?
  9. The history of that area is fascinating to me, starting with the Scythians who were a powerful nomadic empire in the region who were early adopters in successfully breeding and utilizing horses capable of carrying people (although chariots had been in use for centuries already). For 2000 years the Crimean coast was more Greek than anything else, although that ended in the 15th century. A naval port/base was first established at Sevastopol in the 5th century BC. There's even a strange Jewish/non-Jewish sect called Crimean Karaites who are practically extinct now, but have an extremely odd history.
  10. More regarding a possible Tokmak offensive. And by more, I mean a seven second clip of lots of puffs of smoke from the Russian perspective. But hey, I'm desperate here for updates, and I figure some other folks on this thread are feeling the same way.
  11. A push towards Tokmak would be huge. I mean, obviously, but anything successful along that line of axis opens up all kinds of opportunities. Edit: I'm not really adding anything here. Just looking at maps and imagining possibilities.
  12. Zelensky saying a major deal on F-16s is imminent: https://ca.style.yahoo.com/zelenskiy-says-awaits-final-agreements-033240834.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAABlja0AAPbMfkP32nX_lRimo3ZXL_EjTGE0cJjXHdgkw8Fu0VNV1UQlxyBH85SuR2rTwZa-TdoilRV1f2nlA-1QsSTyMXdZcrgP161V7ptzgMJF-CWuBdVC05vzLoqmz9wRhIX-Q6h6RmS90mqaNZznopaLmAyThjO_ySHZIc0FN
  13. No heavy armor, yet. Just recon in force in multiple areas. So it depends on how we're defining the start of the counter offensive. In the broadest definition, Ukraine hasn't engaged in offensive operations on this scale since right after Kherson was liberated, when they were still trying to press on multiple fronts with limited success, which shortly stopped. So for me, yes, it's started. In some places there are reports they've advanced as much as 5 to 10 kilometers in the last few days, successfully clearing out several mine fields during operations. But the major counter offensive hasn't begun, yet. One Ukraine general said it was much like obscenity, we'll know it when we see it.
  14. Gotcha. I misunderstood. You're saying you wouldn't be in favor of wiping Russia and Russians off the map. I can't imagine I'll ever go there literally. I get people like to say things like that rhetorically, but I find that dangerous, mostly because I'm convinced there's an evolutionary component where we're predisposed as a species to seek that as a solution, and so feeding into it in any way is not smart. Even jokingly. But that's me. Anyway, thank you for the clarification. Sorry for the misunderstanding.
  15. It can be all of the above. - access/ownership to natural resources off the coast - possession of Sevastopol, which carries massive emotional and historical weight to Russians, not to mention is a significant Naval port. - possession of Crimea itself, which has been largely Russian since Stalin forcibly exported the remaining Crimean Tartars to Siberia and started bringing in Russian citizens. From 1991 to 2014, Crimea was one of the highest Oblasts in terms of percentage of votes cast for Russian friendly politicians - because they could. The Ukraine government was in turmoil, with no one really knowing who should be in charge after Yanukovych fled. Many of the top admiralty were known to be loyal to Russia and would switch sides immediately given the opportunity. In particular, Sergei Yeliseyev, the acting commander of the entire Ukraine Navy, who is now Deputy Chief of the Russian Baltic Fleet, and Denis Berezovsky, who was appointed commander in chief after Yeliseyev defected, also defected, and is now the deputy commander of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. The takeover of Ukraine Navy assets in the Crimean operation was largely an inside job. Trying to pin the takeover of Crimea on any one of those bullet points is missing the bigger picture.
  16. gen·o·cide [ˈjenəˌsīd] NOUN the deliberate killing or severe mistreatment of a large number of people from a particular national or ethnic group with the aim of destroying that nation or group: "a campaign of genocide" _____________________________________________________________________ Putin launched the invasion with the express intent to make Ukraine nonexistent. The Russians aren't putting Ukrainians on trains to put them in ovens, but outside of that, everything they've done is without a doubt exactly what genocide is. They target children with attempts to brainwash them. They destroy anything written in Ukrainian. They literally put bullets in the back of civilians' heads wholescale. They destroy any piece of art or anything else of Ukrainian cultural value. They blow up prisoner of war camps to kill the captives there. They make medical facilities and personnel high value targets. I mean, I'm with you on the blowing up of the dam. I'll also say I'd enter into some kind of negotiations with Russia to make the nuclear power plant some kind of demilitarized zone. I realize the Russians can't be bargained with in good faith, but anything that lessens the chances of the eventual meltdown of those reactors would be worth paying a very high price, outside of allowing the aggression to stand. As I said before, it's a significant jump in consequences to go from blowing up the dam to doing the same thing in some way to the Zaporizhzhia power plant...but not insurmountable ones. It doesn't even have to be a carrot. Could be leave the area or NATO will take it by force. I don't think anyone is willing to do that, but they should be. To me allowing the nuclear power plant to go into meltdown, or the use of tactical nuclear weapons, is the crossing of the rubicon that we haven't seen, yet.
  17. Well, they don't have many ships any more. A bunch were captured in Crimea but then returned. A bunch more were captured in Berdyansk. Their main frigate that was capable of missions away from port was scuttled towards the start of the invasion. They've never had much of a fleet, and did nothing to invest in it following independence in 1991. All of their ships were/are inherited from the Soviet Union. The loss of Sevastopol was pretty crippling, since a huge amount of the support facilities were located there. The marines were officially separated from the Navy on May 23, so now they're an independent service of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
  18. Schulz2.0, I have it on good authority from the Russian Propaganda office that those AMX-10RCs are actually Leopard 2s and 500 of them have been destroyed in the Ukrainians massive counter offensive which has been decisively repulsed once and for all. On a completely different note, it's so fascinating to read about Subatai's conquests of the Russians and east Europeans relatively close to where the battles are taking place right now, and know that he mastered the ability to separate and attack in different elements across a front, then combine when exploiting a weakness with overwhelming force, centuries ago. Love what I'm reading about what the Ukrainians are doing so far. I've also been very gratified that we haven't seen or heard much regarding Russian air close combat support just yet.
  19. Meh. They knew. They didn't care.
  20. Reports that 16,000 people live in critical risk zones downstream. Evacuations have already begun.
  21. I mean, I know of a place not too far upstream that could use a REALLY BIG beaver dam right about now.
  22. Shorter runway required. Not nearly as little tolerance for debris as the F-16. Much more compact maintenance systems. I'm not saying easier, necessarily, but compact because of the need to be carrier ready. Two engines. I wish there was some way to modernize their suite before handing them over so they are true 4.5 generation aircraft. I don't know what kind of upgrades these planes have. I did like the part of them not operating at sea so they're in better shape than they otherwise would be. This would be huge. It sounds like it's practically a done deal, too. It says four months to get them to Ukraine. I know we'd all love it to be sooner, but 4 months sounds like a much better time frame than I thought it might be for western fighters to be deployed. Great catch, 956 Worldwide. Thanks for sharing.
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