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Muny_Tex

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Everything posted by Muny_Tex

  1. CC didn’t hire Boras until mid-Jan; several weeks after the other marquee guys signed elsewhere. It appears those clowns at William Morris (with basically zero MLB experience) dicked up his negotiations and Boras is now trying to salvage the impending disaster. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  2. Javier should absolutely not be traded, and certainly not for another reliever. He’s a team-controlled asset with playoff pedigree who can be deployed 17 different ways. I also don’t think LMJ is gonna be pitching anytime soon (and JV is a partial question mark too), so I expect to see Javier break camp as a starter anyway…certainly not an expendable guy. Even if those health outlooks improve, I’d imagine Click will want to stick with a 6 man rotation as long as possible to limit wear/tear/innings. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  3. https://www.clickondetroit.com/sports/2022/03/11/report-reveals-new-details-of-detroit-tigers-offer-to-carlos-correa-before-signing-javier-baez/?outputType=amp ^^^^More details about the 10 / 275 Correa turned down from Detroit. 3x opt-out clauses + a $10M bonus for every top 5 MVP finish [emoji15] I know the Lindor deal remains he and Boras’ “floor”, but as mentioned above, I’m not sure where the leverage is gonna come from if both NYY and LAD don’t fully participate. Put me in the camp of 1 yr / $40M (give or take) for one season in HOU, then Carlos can piss all over Lindor’s money when he wins a WS MVP and re-sets the market. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  4. ^^^Saw the above chart referenced on ZeroHedge today. Sign of the times indeed.. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  5. Governor of Queretero says no deaths occurred; so I guess we can just chalk it up to an overreaction. I’m sure those stripped naked dudes with blood/brain gushing out of their severed heads were just trying to get likes on IG: https://amp.marca.com/en/football/liga-mx/2022/03/06/6224e7ea22601d0e2e8b45d3.html Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  6. PS Congrats OP on your clear house note + debt freedom…you are my role model (I’m about halfway there). Would be interested to know the route you took to get there assuming you live in a medium-to-high COL area like Austin. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  7. CSB: I once had union job that (of course) insisted on keeping sick hours separate from vacation hours to help maximize abuse/absenteeism; even though all corporate HQ employees underwent a PTO migration similar to ones described above. After 11 years of employment (and nearly perfect attendance) I was given a “take it or leave it” buyout offer during covid as said company indicated a need to drastically reduce headcount to avoid involuntary mass layoffs. Feel free to take a guess on how many of my ~750 unused sick hours were “paid out” (or even acknowledged) within that final disbursement. Life Lesson: Take whatever payout you can get now and throw away your cost/benefit calculator…never underestimate the fist-fucking a consulting firm can unleash when hired to “right size” a company during “unprecedented challenges” (also: modern day unions are trash) Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  8. With over two full months now in the books, updated YTD results are below as of COB Fri 3/4: $GLD: +9.1% $GOLD: +30.53% $DJIA: -8.1% $SPY: -9.5% $RUT: -11.5% $NDAQ: -15.3% $BTC: -18.2% $ARKK: -37.9% Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  9. Username checks out; provided you went to the Wm Cannon location Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  10. The correct answer to the posted question is Brooks & Dunn; as per Scraps That said, Alan Jackson is probably next on the list and honestly a pretty strong case can be made for Tim McGraw as well. I would also add both Clay Walker & Tracy Lawrence to the “honorable mention” list as far as capturing the quintessential “90s country” sound Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  11. I think a qualify for this distinction, as I just registered a -5.2 lbs drop in my first week of ultra low carb, minimal sugar (203.6 to 198.4). Didn’t do any exercise because of the gross weather and feeling kinda sick/weak from the big shift in dieting. Did a lot of walking outside today but hoping to get workouts rolling again tomorrow. The nutritional status quo prior to starting this quest was abominable: (pizza, burgers, chicken strips, quesadillas, cookies, etc) Original plan for this diet was a 2-week kickstart, but gonna try to make it a month now (if I can stand it) and shoot for the full 20 lbs. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  12. Lol that was me; assuming you’re thinking of the bald/bearded dude who patted you on the shoulder in the lower level concourse. Internet is a weird place, but it was good to see you man…glad you got some nice memories despite the bad result tonight. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  13. Jumped on the train earlier this week after cresting 200 lbs for the first time in my life (I’m turning 37 this summer). I’m 6’0 so it’s not massive BMI, but am carrying it terribly in form of belly fat and bitch tits; and I’m sure my BP and blood sugars are equally egregious now too. Deadly mix of dietary catastrophe (more pizza & fast food during 2 yrs of Covid than previous 10 yrs combined) + work from home laziness + newborn kid has finally spelled disaster. Starting out with goal of 2 full weeks of heavily reduced carbs (Atkins-ish) and minimal sugar then ideally shifting some into sort of “maintenance mode” with cranked up workout regimen once I can (hopefully) ditch the first 10-12 lbs of waffle batter. I’ve never been a fatass before now, and this has damn near wrecked my self esteem. Kicking an added sugar / processed carb addiction is no easy task either…definitely have newfound empathy for people who have lifelong struggles with this stuff. Buena suerte hombres, hope to report back soon with some meaningful progress. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  14. With regard to rent prices, is there some sort of red flag indicator that states “market is at risk of bubble when equivalent mortgage cost is X% or $XXX higher per month than market rent price?” You can rent new construction in Manor (Shadow Glen) for $2,150/mo, but neighborhood sale comps are now $375K… You can rent a 1980-era 1/1 in North Burnet for $1200/mo, but recent sales in same complex are now starting at $240k (+$200/mo HOA)… Back of the envelope on both purchases (10% down @ 4.0 rate for 30-yrs), say it costs you about $500 more per month to “own” either property than it does to rent them. Does that align with historical norms for Austin? Isn’t that kind of a lousy deal when you are already having to make a sizable upfront cash commitment for that privilege? I guess if you’re 100% committed to occupying for 10+ years you’re ultimately better off…but seems like it used to be much more of a slam-dunk decision to buy? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  15. That’s some excellent detective work there Lou, but I guess all “drinks” aren’t created equal? I bot a can of sparkle water from the fridge so maybe that stuff is like $4? I didn’t receive an itemized receipt but maybe your kid can pull the surveillance tape in case I was overcharged? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  16. FWIW, my latest “I’m done” moment came at Thundercloud yesterday when a large tuna + drink (no chips) ran me $13…toss in a couple extra bucks for the kid behind the counter and that’s just a tremendous waste of money to spend with any regularity. They (Lake Austin location) also have cut hours to close at 5pm most days since they don’t have enough workers. In any event, it seems we’ve got another fresh set of anecdotes making the case for stagflation (scarcity + gouging + inability to staff due to wage push) along with a potential liquidity trap if Surly 1% decides to opt out of “new normal” consumption and burrow into their mansions armed with a war chest of $5 pizzas. My vibe is most people will generally be willing to eat the dick for crazy costs one time (e.g. Disney trip promised to kids for 2 years, trip to Napa with SO for 6x postponed vacation, etc) and then the recession will get rolling with full force once everyone is fully “tapped out” either by choice or maxed out credit cards with no more monopoly money in sight. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  17. I thought all the geniuses who presided over the unemployment bonanza told us a de facto $15 minimum wage wouldn’t have any impact on menu prices or food costs going forward. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  18. YTD Scoreboard Update as of 17 FEB (@1230): $GLD: +5.4% $GOLD: +25.4% $DJIA: -5.6% $SPY: -7.8% $RUT: -9.9% $NDAQ: -14.5% $BTC: -13.8% $ARKK: -28.6% Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  19. Also, unsolicited advice: Don’t top out your DTI regardless of where you think the market is heading. There’s a big difference between what you can borrow vs. what you can meaningfully afford...don’t sell your soul for the sake of this endeavor. A lot will depend on your personality (along with your significant other if you have one), but being house poor can be a special type of miserable…espec if you end up buying at the “top” and don’t see any material appreciation for several years therefore keeping you “stuck” there indefinitely. Home should be a sanctuary, not a prison…don’t take the bait and bust outside of your means. The fact that you’ve accumulated 20% down despite moderate salary means you’re a hard worker and responsible human…keep that train rolling and find something (even if it’s a condo/townhouse) that will allow you to maintain peace of mind going forward. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  20. I know this is a very difficult projection, but are we sure the market will sustain those same prices/demand for “entry level” homes in the presence of 5% rates? I think there’s a certain segment of the Austin area market that is “rate-proof” due to investors/out-of-state cash buyers (e.g. Central/West); but if you’re looking at new construction under $400k I would guess you’re in a non-premium area like Manor or somewhere way South/East. As such, I highly doubt you’re gonna be the only cat with DTI concerns in the ~5% rate scenario, especially if accompanied by a recession that is creating job disruption for mid-tier earners (which I think is unavoidable if Fed is serious about taking inflation); therefore complicating their loan approvals/underwriting requirements. Also, if the recession and tight lending scenario holds true, are there really that many people at your price point that will be able to swing a no-shit 20% down payment? In other words, I’m not sure you’re worse off taking a ~1-1.5% rate hike if it is paired with $40-$50k in purchase price reduction and/or softer competition for other properties…espec if an ace like Wulaw can get you refi’d down in a couple years once the smoke clears. I am more bearish than the average bear, but I also know first-hand how broke 95% of “real world” American consumers are once you remove their ability to borrow without limitation. I know the hard data supports a severe shortage of housing supply, and demographic inflow into CenTex is not stopping anytime soon….but if people simply can’t afford it anymore I don’t see how this level of appreciation is going to continue. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  21. I guess it became trendy to hate on it for a while (maybe still is?), but it’s a really great place to grab a picnic table + BYOB in Spring/Fall…espec on a weekday when it’s not very busy. We often used to “tailgate” there before night games in the mid-late aughts and always had a blast. Obviously not much of a “getaway” vibe anymore with all the newly-built sprawl, but still worth a visit. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  22. Understood, but rhetorical point is what is the Fed waiting for? Shouldn’t immediate rate hikes/cessation of QE/end of asset purchases been enacted the moment it became crystal clear the inflation was not at all transitory and in fact a borderline crisis? And as for “less accommodative” Fed policy as an elixir, how does a 1-2 point rate nudge upward offset an inflation issue that is (generously) running at 7.5%? Supply chains will likely improve this year, but enough to resolve an ongoing labor shortage (e.g. psychological shift of many people being “done” with certain jobs/industries), high gas prices, and a tidal wave of pent up demand for travel/leisure? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  23. My $GLD is up approx 1.5% YTD, which is beating all 3 major indices espec the Nasdaq…and well surpassing BTC (-8%) and Russell 2K (-9%). That said, I do believe another significant sell-off may be right around the corner as fickle investors buy into false narrative that Fed can (or will) get inflation under control with rate hikes…so a non-yield paying hedge is no longer necessary. Not sure if you follow mega bug Peter Schiff, but his thesis is marginal rate hikes and “less loose” Fed policy will prove wholly inadequate to stem inflation (bullish for gold)…and any attempt to heavily crank the monetary tightening will crash the markets and threaten severe recession, at which point the Fed will abort mission/resume QE leading to a seismic crash in the dollar (jackpot for gold). I don’t entirely share that outlook, but recently structured a very “defensive” portfolio alongside Gold that focuses mainly on established, profitable, dividend-payers with limited exposure to momentum stocks minus some hand-picking that I do in my Roth for cyclical travel/leisure/retail plays. In any event, I generally subscribe to your theory that gold is to be “owned” and not actively “traded”. If you believe our ‘borrow & spend’ economy is fundamentally a house of cards (I certainly do), then temporary price swings in gold are irrelevant when the eventual end game (hyperinflation via USD’s loss of status as global reserve currency) is inevitable…just don’t know if we’re 5 years or 300 years away from that catastrophe. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  24. ^^^Great info, thanks for posting. I knew “owner equivalent rent” was a dogshit metric, but had no idea it was that willfully inaccurate. The housing/rental market has probably benefited from digitization as much as any major consumer industry over the past ~5 years; you could enlist a summer intern from Zillow to pull YoY rental comps (not to mention the ‘for sale’ list prices from MLS) within the top 50 MSAs and do 1000x better than the CPI. Everything is a scam. It’s very exhausting. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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