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Viper

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Viper

  1. from gemini The YouTube video from the channel Zeihan on Geopolitics, titled "Russia Is Failing Not Failed || Peter Zeihan," explores the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the potential outcomes, despite Russia's underwhelming military performance. The speaker, Peter Zeihan, emphasizes that the war's outcome is far from certain and outlines three primary reasons for this uncertainty. Firstly, Russia has not exhausted its full military potential. While Russia's military performance has been surprisingly poor, they haven't yet resorted to full mobilization of their resources or transitioned to a complete war economy. This means they still have the capacity to escalate the conflict significantly. Moreover, external factors, such as increased Chinese support, could further bolster Russia's capabilities. While China currently provides some assistance, they haven't fully committed their resources, leaving room for a potential shift in the balance of power. Secondly, the looming threat of nuclear weapons remains a critical factor. Zeihan argues that if Russia manages to advance and reach the borders of NATO countries, they might resort to nuclear threats as a bargaining chip. He paints a scenario where Russia could threaten to launch nuclear strikes on European capitals, forcing NATO members to withdraw their support for Ukraine or face devastating consequences. This highlights the potential for the conflict to escalate beyond conventional warfare and involve the existential threat of nuclear weapons. Thirdly, Russia's declining demographic and geopolitical situation makes it potentially more dangerous. As a declining power with a shrinking population, Russia might feel it has less to lose and therefore be more willing to take drastic measures. Zeihan suggests that Russia's desperation could lead them to employ unconventional tactics or weapons, including cyber warfare, chemical weapons, or other destabilizing actions. This "nothing to lose" mentality poses a significant risk to global security and stability. Despite these concerns, Zeihan emphasizes that every day Ukraine resists is a victory. A Russian defeat in Ukraine would severely weaken their strategic position and make them vulnerable on multiple fronts. The West's support for Ukraine is crucial in preventing a Russian victory and the potential consequences that would follow. In conclusion, the video provides a nuanced perspective on the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, highlighting the uncertainties and potential risks that lie ahead. While Russia's military performance has been underwhelming, it is crucial to recognize their remaining potential and the possibility of escalation. The video serves as a reminder of the complex geopolitical factors at play and the importance of continued support for Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression.
  2. yes I think so https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1882100043395776884 I think the best case scenario here might be that Trump honestly wants to stop the war on his terms, not Putin's. So he'll use sanctions, tariffs, and increasing aid to Ukraine to get Putin to the negotiating table. Best case for Ukraine might be that Putin proves so intractable that Trump just goes all in on Ukraine winning, worse case might be that Putin agrees to negotiate and Trump doesn't really care about the terms with regards to Ukraine and a weak peace is made with Russia looking to re-arm and re-invade in 4 years or so. Reality will probably be somewhere in the middle.
  3. Hopefully TexasOneFund is reaching out.
  4. Welcome back DreadPirateRoberts! Poor guy is going to be really surprised when he tries to log back in to shaggy.
  5. Viper

    Nintendo Switch

    My 7 year preorder of Metroid Prime 4 got cancelled because it's been moved to the switch 2. Will probably cost me $20 because I preordered back when Amazon would give a $10 discount on preorders
  6. Of course you're not, you're a Charlie Strong stan.
  7. Even though they voted for it when we voted against it
  8. yes, they're a part of this organization: https://www.tamu.edu/
  9. Thank God for OrangeBloods, or else these people would be polluting our forums
  10. Not sure how we're going to compete with this
  11. Oh is that how we're doing it now?
  12. Not saying it's the best, but I think A Nightmare Before Christmas belongs on the bracket
  13. Viper

    2025 ACL

    I was at pretty lights, mike, and sturgill. Too old for those tightly packed crowds.
  14. So Vince can come back for one more year?
  15. "To your point..." "You're in high cotton" "Katie bar the door" "He [a recruit] is a tall drink of water"
  16. "Is she a waterpark" needs to become a thing
  17. Admittedly the punter is going to be a very important position for them next year.
  18. If Luicci didn't exist, we'd have to invent him.
  19. how much effect do they have on the car battery?
  20. Viper

    Youtube Music

    been using it since the beginning. I still miss Google Play Music a little but Youtube Music has been really good. I don't like it as a podcast app, though I haven't tried it in a while.
  21. Regarding the alleged drones over New Jersey and New York as Micah states there really is no consistent description besides something flying and at night with lights. Basically anything. So to specifically count all of these reports and add them up as anything beyond mistaken conventional aircraft is a stretch IMO. Perhaps a better case study in human fallibility when it comes to identifying various conventional light planes and helicopters. Drones technically shouldn’t be operating after dusk per FAA Part 107 rules for UAS operators. But Identifying drones versus airplanes is going to be a challenge at night unless the vehicle is within a couple hundred feet. The clips I’ve seen clearly look like airplanes. Not even drones. While some may indeed be surveillance type drones operated by our military or adversaries or even UAP of non-human origins - the evidence points to 1) misidentification of aircraft and 2) drones or UAV so far .
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