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JBJ

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Everything posted by JBJ

  1. Yeah, the targeting call on Derek Wiliiams or Jerrin Thompson(?) that was overturned falls into this category. The WR was the one leading with his crown.
  2. Emotional hedging. I actually think the committee's rankings are pretty defensible, but they do a shit job actually justifying/explaining them to the press. Also, the 12-team format doesn't fix the problem.
  3. Mountain West did their tiebreaker this year using computer ratings.
  4. Alabama basically has little chance to make the playoffs based solely on an OOC matchup. If they didn't play uss this year, people would be talking about how UGA and Bama both need to be in regardless of who wins Saturday.
  5. This is wrong because the committee has signaled that they don't care about the resumes. If Nix completes less than 70% of his passes there's a good chance the committee drops Oregon. Sarcasm meters.
  6. This is almost exactly what my model has. I give Washington a bit more of a chance to win though.
  7. Also, racking up stats against weaker teams is what the committee is looking for.
  8. We are a bad matchup for you, but it would make next season's game even more fun if we wound up playing.
  9. Does ERob know where the bodies are buried or something? He's the position coach of an underperforming unit. Someone explain this to me. Is he the bagman?
  10. Give me those Army uniforms. If for no other reason than Navy put out photos meant to showcase their uniforms with lighting that makes it impossible to actually see the uniform.
  11. Sagarin and Massey are both score-weighted elo-like systems. Massey does a better job for controlling for it by using win probabilities instead of actual scores, but that style of system as a wholes tends to punish difficult schedules.
  12. FSU 21 (7 FGs) Iowa 7 (1 FG, 2 SAF)
  13. JBJ

    Fuck Big 12 refs

    Their thesis seems to be that refs let more play go on when big teams play. They try to make it even, but this inevitably favors the worse team who has to hold/PI/etc to compete. Many sports have a distinct style of "playoff officiating" so this shouldn't take a lot of convincing. However, Texas is the most penalized B12 team this year so it doesn't apply to us.
  14. Having read through the entire thread carefully and considered everyone's opinion, the rank-order is this: 1) Michigan 2) Georgia 3) FSU 4) Washington 5) Oregon - this was close, but eyetest wins out. They've simply been more consistent and their resume isn't that bad especially with a rematch win. 6) Texas 7) Alabama - they lose the eye test and resume and head-to-head to Texas. I will say that a win over Georgia helps their resume a lot and it's not the huge gulf behind Texas that I expected. They are still the worse pick by every measure, though. 8. Michigan (1L) 9) UGA (1L) ---- no chance below this line ---- 10) tOSU 11) FSU (1L) 12) Washington (1L) Congratulations, everyone. This is official. We did it.
  15. And power ratings matters more than ranks for SoS. BTW, most power rankings have KSU up there. KSU is #8 in mine. For that matter, as much as people bemoan being looked down on for playing close games, the only comment from a national talking head I've heard about the KSU game is that it's one of the most impressive wins of the year - beating a top 15-ish team with a backup QB.
  16. And Ole Miss is ranked 12th this year which would be all kinds of controversial (they beat Tulane OOC).
  17. Bama, LSU, aggy all lost their marquee OOC games. The best OOC win the SEC has is either Mizzou in OT vs KSU or Kentucky over Louisville. It's impossible to accurately compare between conferences with so little interplay between them. With that disclaimer my model has Pac>B1G>B12>SEC>ACC. There's basically no gap between Pac/B1G and B12/SEC. And not much gap between all 5.
  18. To illustrate the absurdity: if Oregon beats Washington this weekend, Washington will have the better win and better loss over Oregon.
  19. This same logic applies to Alabama/Georgia.
  20. In 2020, Clemson jumped tOSU after both won their titles. In 2017, Georgia jumped idle Alabama. In 2016, Penn State jumped Oklahoma who won the B12 title and idle Michigan. In 2015, Michigan State jumped idle Oklahoma In 2014, Baylor and Ohio State jumped TCU after all 3 won.
  21. Current rankings don't matter. We've seem the committee buck previous rankings several years now. When they actually seriously start discussing who is in or out, things will change. Texas has the best resume out of any 1-loss team. SoS, game control, wins over top 50, all solidly in our favor. I feel like this needs to be shouted from the roofs. If we get bucked for another team it won't be because of anything to do with our resume. It'll be because the committee thinks another team is better than us enough that it overcomes all that.
  22. Milroe has faded hard against every single decent defense he's faced. Bama also has not been tested in the air much since Texas. They didn't do well.
  23. It's literally the most no-brain scenario for the committee. 3 undefeated champs and the other two champs already played each other. There's zero controversy in this scenario. You are completely regarded if you think they choose a big controversy over the obvious.
  24. A non-conference Champ is not making it this year, bar complete disaster. If one were to make it, it would be tOSU, not Georgia.
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