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MLB Betting 2021: Good pitching beats good hitting and vice versa


maninblack
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  • 3 weeks later...
15 hours ago, closetohumping said:

I'm on O's under, Twins over.

Also like the Twins so just grabbed them.  Adding a couple more...

Twins OVER 88.5 -115

Blue Jays OVER 86.5 -115

Reds UNDER 81.5 -110

That should do it for team win totals for me.  I don't see much value at all in the futures market...for basically everything I lean toward, I can get a better price by shopping hot/cold streaks in season, I think.

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It might be obvious, but on MLB season win totals...always check the rules of your sports books.  It's even more important in a Covid world.  My books vary from 162 games for action to 50 games for action (with the bet in that case being win percentage and not games), so my unders are bet at a book with 160 games required.  If you're right on the Orioles, for example, and they suck...the likelihood of them missing a game is actually reasonably high.  So, I'd rather have under 63.5 -115 at a 160 game book than under 63.5 +100 at a 162 game book.

My overs are both on teams that should be relatively good, so the difference matters less, as they're much less likely to have games that aren't made up...so on those I picked strictly based on price.

 

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I often listen to AM radio out here in California.  There's actually a station devoted to sports gambling and two others devoted to sports.  One of the all sports stations always has a three hour early morning weekend gambling show hosted by two of the biggest guidos in the world.  And of course, their picks are horrible.  However,  I was listening to another show and one of the cappers, a legit one, not some mouth breather, said he knew of someone who allegedly paid off his mortgage betting first five innings unders.  

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On 4/4/2021 at 5:37 PM, closetohumping said:

I often listen to AM radio out here in California.  There's actually a station devoted to sports gambling and two others devoted to sports.  One of the all sports stations always has a three hour early morning weekend gambling show hosted by two of the biggest guidos in the world.  And of course, their picks are horrible.  However,  I was listening to another show and one of the cappers, a legit one, not some mouth breather, said he knew of someone who allegedly paid off his mortgage betting first five innings unders.  

Technically guys that reliably pick losers are just as valuable as sharp guys. 🙂

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My book fucked up and made the Red Sox cancellation action.  I'd dispute it if I lost, but that's a double banger. 🙂 I'll only count the +130 for grading purposes, because they really should have canceled, and had I noticed I wouldn't have re-bet it obviously.

Brewers -155

Giants +100

 

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21 hours ago, Dr Fear said:

Yankees with Cole on the mound are -370 against the Tigers.  That is as high of a MLB money line as I can recall.

The Astros were north of -400 a couple times in a late, late Tigers series a couple years ago...losing one of them. But -370 is the highest I can recall at a point of the season when everybody is still trying.

https://www.covers.com/mlb/the-biggest-favorite-in-mlb-history-burned-bettors-and-made-a-mint-for-vegas-bookies

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2 hours ago, Here for Zed said:

Are your normal bets for any action as opposed to listed pitchers only?

That's a good question. Prior to last year, it was all listed pitchers, last year was all action, now it's a mix based on books rules/defaults and which of my outs have the best price.  I usually care so little that I'll just take the best number, BUT all of my books as of a few days ago are again offering listed pitchers even if the default is action...so I should probably choose a lane.

I called it out specifically here, because Ohtani is somewhat unique in his likelihood to get scratched and if they replace him with a AAAA emergency I'm 30 or 40 cents on the wrong side.

 

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21 hours ago, Here for Zed said:

I was just curious because I followed a couple of plays that were cancelled because of a pitching change. 1 win and 1 loss so it evened out.

Ah, gotcha.  Yeah, two of my outs are action by default and the other is listed pitchers, so if I care I have to make sure I'm checking the right boxes.

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