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Gambling thread everything. Goes talk about your bad beats here


closetohumping
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  • closetohumping changed the title to NFL 2022 betting and futures
  • 1 month later...

I will be dialing up a lot of single game parlays. I know they are not smart and I'm getting hosed on odds. But I don't care, they are fun as hell and I bet to have fun, not make money. That idea went out the window a long time ago. I had Henderson in a couple of leagues last year and drafted him late 1 of the 2 leagues I'm in this year. I have followed the Rams two headed RB saga fairly closely this off-season. Of course we won't know until we see but it sure sounds to me like this is going to be a true timeshare and Henderson has been the better goal line back. That's the key here, the rest feel pretty good to me. Trail at your own peril. This is on FD. 

 

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Fucking Cleveland yesterday....

Took them as 6.5 pt favorites vs the Jets

Up 30-17 (99.9% win probability) with less than 2 minutes left in the game and Brown it up and lose 31-30.  Fuck me.  Stupid ass bet making me have to pay my book this week.  

Edited by Trey3216
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3 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

Fucking Cleveland yesterday....

Took them as 6.5 pt favorites vs the Jets

Up 30-17 (99.9% win probability) with less than 2 minutes left in the game and Brown it up and lose 31-30.  Fuck me.  Stupid ass bet making me have to pay my book this week.  

Yeah I had them in a teaser with Cincy (the other Ohio douchebags) and I think Denver. SMH.

 

May sit tonight out.  Tight lines.

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Had this one tonight using the free roll up to 50 SGP at FD. 4th quarter, Cleveland driving deep into Pitt territory. Chubb started the drive but got winded so they bring in Hunt. First and goal from the 8. Handoff to Hunt, he gains 4, 2nd and goal from the 4. Hand to Hunt deep in the backfield, looks like he's getting stopped for a loss, spins outside and looks like he's going to score. Gang tackled at the 1.5. 3rd down. Hand to Hunt again 3 yards deep. He's hit at the line, stopped, second effort and linemen pushing behind him.... He's going to get in! Stopped at the one foot line. 4th and goal from the 1 ft line, Chubb back in, walks in for TD. Price is Right horn. 

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Cowherd is 7-3.  Week 3 picks:

Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) at Washington Commanders

Cowherd pick: Commanders

Final score prediction: Commanders 27, Eagles 26

Cowherd said:

“Listen, I like Philly, but not giving the Commanders 6.5 at home in a division rivalry. I’m taking Washington here. Carson Wentz revenge game. He’s played great, back-to-back 300-plus-passing-yard games. He’s got nice wideouts. I like Washington.”

“The Eagles are coming off a short week. Their defense gave up 35 to the Lions. I think you can move the ball on Philadelphia [and] they come back down to earth a little. I like them big picture, but 6.5 points to Washington, I’m calling for the upset, 27-26 Wentz and the Commanders with the W.”

Jacksonville Jaguars (+7) at Los Angeles Chargers

Cowherd pick: Jaguars

Final score prediction: Jaguars 27, Chargers 23

Cowherd said:

“How about another upset? I’m gonna take the Jaguars +7. Their defense is top 10 in scoring, top 10 in total defense and takeaways. They’ll put pressure on whoever the quarterback is for the Chargers. Trevor Lawrence finally found the right coach in year two. He’s playing great football, getting rid of it quicker.”

“And Justin Herbert has fractured cartilage in ribs – three or four ribs. [He’s] day-to-day, may not play. Their center, Corey Linsley, a Pro Bowler, knee, may not play. Keenan Allen not 100%, JC Jackson not 100%, Trey Pipkins not 100%. The banged-up Chargers, they may just rest Justin Herbert. You know, it’s not a divisional game. I think the Jags +7 is the bet, 27-23 Jacksonville with the upset.”

Atlanta Falcons (+1) at Seattle Seahawks

Cowherd pick: Falcons

Final score prediction: Falcons 27, Seahawks 23

Cowherd said:

“One of my favorite bets of the week. Like it? I love it. Falcons +1. First of all, they have two losses by a total of five points. Marcus Mariota’s always been good, he just can’t stay healthy. He’s been excellent so far. They’re 5-2 dating back to last year when they face teams under .500. They can’t beat the good teams. They beat the bad teams, though, and Seattle’s a bad team…my favorite bet, maybe on the board.”

Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5)

Cowherd pick: Buccaneers

Final score prediction: Buccaneers 28, Packers 21

Cowherd said:

“Keep your eye on this line. I’m gonna take the Bucs, it’s currently -1.5. I’m gonna take Tampa here, it’s their home debut. By the way, their defense forced five turnovers in the second half against the Saints, and their defense is absolutely healthy and on fire. And Todd Bowles is a great defensive coach.”

“The Packers have lost four-of-five road games. Their defense, God, the Bears gashed them, 6.5 yards per carry. So, Green Bay’s defense looks good on paper, but it’s young in spots and not quite jelling. I think Tampa wins this game, Tommy pulls it out late 28-21.”

San Francisco 49ers (-1.5) at Denver Broncos

Cowherd pick: 49ers

Final score prediction: 49ers 24, Broncos 21

Cowherd said:

“All right, Jimmy G came in last week for Trey Lance. He looked good, passer rating over 100, two TDs, no picks. I know you don’t like him, but he distributes the ball to their playmakers. On Sunday Night Football he’s played six times [and] he’s won four of them. His passer rating’s 105. Their offense in San Francisco is out-rushing their opponents by 230 yards this year, and their defense has been absolutely fantastic.”

“And the Broncos can’t score in the red zone because Russell Wilson doesn’t run around anymore. They’re 0-6 in red zone scoring opportunities, and they’re the only team in the league with 100-plus penalty yards per game. And they’re burning time outs. And situationally, they’re a mess. I think San Francisco has the second-best roster in the league to Buffalo.”

“Pains me to say it, but I can’t wait to watch it: I think San Francisco, swallowing a point-and-a-half, I’ll take it. It may not be this close, 24-21 Niners.”

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Tonight seems like a good spot for the Bengals. Rather, a bad spot for the Dolphins. They expended a lot of capital beating the Bills in 100 degree heat on Sunday. They are banged up, had to deal with an unusual schedule because of Ian, and are on 4 days rest. Miami 67 Cincy 8.

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  • 2 months later...

Is this where we bitch about bad beats? Feel like I've had two all timers in the past two days. At least yesterday was light.

Mavs Knicks. Luka with 11 and 3 boards at halftime. I play a lot of player props and Luka has been piling up second half rebounds. I bet over 24.5 2h points + rebounds. Knicks lead by 1 at half. Mavs come out on fire, Luka scores 19 in the quarter and adds 5 boards. He rests to start the 4th as Dallas built a 19 point lead. With him on the bench it balloons to 30 and he never plays again.

Today, going to the Lions game with my nephews. I texted my buddy that has Etienne in his FF league. What do you think his o/u is for Receiving yards? He guesses 40. Nope it's 12.5. His splits look great when healthy to beat that #. I'm thinking it's a mistake almost. I put $400 on it. I think the third play from scrimmage is a screen pass to Etienne for 13. Same drive he adds another catch for 4 yards. Jags suck all day and can't move the ball. With the game approaching out of reach status in the early 4th on a must have 3rd or 4th and 5 they throw a flare to Etienne. Loss of 5. Doesn't play again. 3 catches, 12 yards, long of 13.

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  • closetohumping changed the title to Gambling thread everything. Goes talk about your bad beats here

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