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Posted
On 11/26/2025 at 4:55 PM, chainsaw said:

 

If aggy beats us, that would go a long way towards keeping Georgia out of the SEC title game (Bama would have the head to head and the higher cumulative opponent winning percentage), so bitchtit Kirby Smart probably will be rooting for us on Friday.

 

Maybe he can help us by telling Sark all he learned from playing aggy earlier this year. Or was it last year? . . . I forget.

Posted (edited)
On 11/26/2025 at 4:55 PM, chainsaw said:

If we beat aggy they would need both Auburn (26.5% ESPN Analytics chance to win) and Mississippi State (21.6% ESPN Analytics chance to win) to upset Bama and Ole Miss, otherwise they will have been knocked out of the SEC championship. That comes out to an over 94% chance of being kept out of the SEC title game if aggy loses to us on Friday.

Interesting to me, if aggy beats us, that would go a long way towards keeping Georgia out of the SEC title game (Bama would have the head to head and the higher cumulative opponent winning percentage), so bitchtit Kirby Smart probably will be rooting for us on Friday.

This is how it works out, check my math.

Week of Nov 26, teams at the top of the SEC standings:

aggy (7-0) to play TEX (Nov 28)

Georgia (7-1 [Bama]) done with Conference Play

Ole Miss (6-1 [Georgia]) to play MISS ST (Nov 28)

Alabama (6-1 [Oklahoma]) to play AUB (Nov 29)

If Texas Wins:

aggy 7-1

Georgia 7-1

Ole Miss 7-1 or 6-2

Alabama 7-1 or 6-2

That is four two different outcomes:

  1. Only aggy and Georgia are 7-1 at the end of the weeek
    • Both will advance to SEC championship game
  2. If all four teams are 7-1
    • Alabama and Georgia would play for SEC championship
    • No complete round-robin
    • No team has beaten all three of the other 7-1 teams
    • No team has lost to all three of the other 7-1 teams
    • There are no Common Conference Opponents among the four 7-1 teams
    • The cumulative conference winning percentage method yields a clear first place team (Alabama)
      • Texas A&M opponents' conference winning percentage: 28.125% to 29.69%
        • Auburn (1-7 [lost to Bama because we are assuming Bama is 7-1])
        • Miss St (1-7 [lost to Ole Miss because we are assuming Ole Miss is 7-1])
        • Florida (2-6)
        • Arkansas (1-7 or 0-8 [Mizzou])
        • LSU (4-4 or 3-5 [Oklahoma])
        • Mizzou (4-4 or 3-5 [Arkansas])
        • SCar (1-7)
        • Texas (6-2)
      • Georgia opponents' conference winning percentage: 46.875% to 48.44%
        • Tenn (5-3 or 4-4 [Vandy])
        • Alabama (7-1)
        • Kentucky (2-6)
        • Auburn (1-7)
        • Ole Miss (7-1)
        • Florida (2-6)
        • Miss St (1-7)
        • Texas (6-2)
      • Ole Miss opponents' conference winning percentage: 35.94% to 37.5%
        • Kentucky (2-6)
        • Arkansas (1-7 or 0-8 [Mizzou])
        • LSU (4-4 or 3-5 [Oklahoma])
        • Georgia (7-1)
        • Oklahoma (6-2 or 5-3 [LSU])
        • SCar (1-7)
        • Florida (2-6)
        • Miss St (1-7)
      • Alabama opponents' conference winning percentage: 50% to 51.56%
        • Georgia (7-1)
        • Vandy (6-2 or 5-3 [Tenn])
        • Mizzou (4-4 or 3-5 [Arkansas])
        • Tenn (5-3 or 4-4 [Vandy])
        • SCar (1-7)
        • LSU (4-4 or 3-5 [Oklahoma])
        • Oklahoma (6-2 or 5-3 [LSU])
        • Auburn (1-7)
      • Alabama's opponent would be determined by the procedure for resolving 3+ team ties for second place (Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas A&M) which would come down to cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents (Georgia advances)
        • No complete round robin among those three teams
        • No team has beaten, nor lost to, both of the other two
        • Georgia, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M have the same record (2-0) against Common Conference Opponents (Miss St, Florida)
        • The cumulative conference winning percentage method yields a clear second place team (Georgia)
  3. Only Ole Miss loses this weekend
    • Alabama and Georgia would play for SEC championship
    • No complete round-robin
    • No team has beaten both of the other 7-1 teams
    • No team has lost to both of the other 7-1 teams
    • There are no common conference opponents amount the three 7-1 teams
    • The cumulative conference winning percentage method yields a clear first place team (Alabama)
      • Alabama percentage unaffected by Ole Miss loss,
      • Georgia percentage unaffected by Ole Miss loss because Miss St win offsets the effect,
      • Texas A&M percentage too low even after adjusting upward for Miss St win
    • Alabama's opponent would be determined by the procedure for resolving a two-team tie for second place (Texas A&M and Georgia)
      • No h2h
      • Common Opponents (Auburn [Even 2-0], Miss St [Even 2-0], Florida [Even 2-0], Texas [Adv Georgia, 1-1])
      • Georgia advances
  4. Only Alabama loses this weekend
    • Georgia and Ole Miss would play for the SEC Championship
    • No complete round-robin among Georgia, Texas A&M, and Ole Miss
    • No team has beaten both of the other 7-1 teams
    • No team has lost to both of the other 7-1 teams
    • LSU is the only common opponent, who all three teams beat
    • The cumulative conference winning percentage method yields a clear first place team (Georgia)
    • Georgia's opponent would be determined by the procedure for resolving a two-team tie for second place (Texas A&M and Ole Miss)
      • No h2h
      • Same records versus Common Opponents (Miss St [2-0], Fla [2-0], Ark [2-0], LSU [2-0], SCar [2-0])
      • The cumulative conference winning percentage method yields a clear second place team (Ole Miss)
        • Texas A&M opponents' conference winning percentage: 31.25% to 32.81%
          • Auburn (2-6)
          • Miss St (1-7)
          • Florida (2-6)
          • Arkansas (1-7 or 0-8 [Mizzou])
          • LSU (4-4 or 3-5 [Oklahoma])
          • Mizzou (4-4 or 3-5 [Arkansas])
          • SCar (1-7)
          • Texas (6-2)
        • Ole Miss opponents' conference winning percentage: 35.94% to 37.5%
          • Kentucky (2-6)
          • Arkansas (1-7 or 0-8 [Mizzou])
          • LSU (4-4 or 3-5 [Oklahoma])
          • Georgia (7-1)
          • Oklahoma (6-2 or 5-3 [LSU])
          • SCar (1-7)
          • Florida (2-6)
          • Miss St (1-7)

Updating this.

Texas A&M and Alabama need to win today if they want to make the SEC championship game.

If Texas A&M wins, then they will play Alabama or, if Alabama loses to Auburn, Georgia.

If Alabama wins, then they will play Texas A&M or, if Texas A&M loses to Texas, Georgia.

If Texas A&M loses, then Georgia is in. Georgia would play Alabama or, if Alabama loses to Auburn, Ole Miss.

Edited by chainsaw
Posted
1 minute ago, chainsaw said:

Updating this.

Texas A&M and Alabama need to win today if they want to make the SEC championship game.

If Texas A&M wins, then they will play Alabama or, if Alabama loses to Auburn, Georgia.

If Alabama wins, then they will play Texas A&M or, if Texas A&M loses to Texas, Georgia.

If Texas A&M loses, then Georgia is in. Georgia would play Alabama or, if Alabama loses to Auburn, Ole Miss.

Why would the officials stack the deck for aggy with the true bluebloods in the mix for the SEC Championship?

Posted
1 minute ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Attempt at the number 1 overall seed and also two teams in top 4. 

At least one of those teams would drop out after losing the CCG.

Posted
1 hour ago, chainsaw said:

Updating this.

Texas A&M and Alabama need to win today if they want to make the SEC championship game.

If Texas A&M wins, then they will play Alabama or, if Alabama loses to Auburn, Georgia.

If Alabama wins, then they will play Texas A&M or, if Texas A&M loses to Texas, Georgia.

If Texas A&M loses, then Georgia is in. Georgia would play Alabama or, if Alabama loses to Auburn, Ole Miss.

My head hurts!!!! Make it stop!!!!😫

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